anvilhead

"immediate, excruciating pain that simply shuts down one's ability to do anything, except, perhaps, scream. Mental discipline simply does not work in these situations" nice .....

well I could get get all funny Snowstorm1 and say that I replied to this thread as was the original post!, but because Im so ace all round - yeah I agree - I'd sugest a lucky dip too - sam

I'd love one ... I'll pay for the post and p

VERY nice 18z for trough disruption and thundery weather next week! Sure its one run, but it's one run 6 hours on from the last.. No doom and gloom here, just eternal hope!

not quite sure what to make of the 12z gfs! Seems to be some strange synoptics going on with that cut off lowthat moves down near iberai, and then back up to rejoin the jetstream - I would think the ensembles when they come out will have quite a bit of scatter - ecm seems to be a wildly different evolution too in the mdeium term from what I've seen - Cheers, Sam

looks like the temperatures over the states + a lack of cold outflow from the pole will make things more favourable for the end of july http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/thetae800.html

the other things with these mjo month/phase composites is that if the underlying nh pattern has shifted a bit (as I personaly believe it might well re heat hugging to and moving up through europe/russia) then the averages they draw from the past wont be all that useful .. sam

not sure about hopecasting - looks promissing to me aswell. To me it looks like troughs are now butting up against the continent, the air travelling south and underneath a developing azores/atlantic hp - this in turn moving waa up its northern side and moving the jet north (happening at t72) - same thing happening at t168, with the high being reinforced and moving further north. By t240 the jet is laying across iceland, the hp over us, still not hot situation as we're always on the north of the hp, but as time goes by its possible that the hp will shift east as cold pools into eastern europe ... cheers, sam

Glad to see the storms kick off yesterday! Even if they missed here completely To all forecasters: Ignore criticism - the vast majority of us find it invaluable and understand that forecasting is about highlighting your opinion of the upcoming risks and possibilities, not putting your head on the block!, so thanks from us all and keep them coming. Sam

possibly something going up near leeds -

I think the NE storms have now organised before exiting into the north sea - not impossible to see a spin up and large hail over newcastle I'd say

sounds good - keep us updated Paul!

sounds great Pau. Post it up!!!! Sam

It could be backbuilding Chloe - any chance of a few photos!

250 mm/h on that cell above newcastle!

anyone have eyes on that cell north of Newcastle ? - its just exploded on radar

hi all. could be some strong storms around! looking at the 12z gfs monday night there's surfce se/easterlys over the south uk, underneath a 50 -60 kt jet stream. I'm sure the next run will deal with the loose lp centred over the channel differently, but pretty interesting output right now imo. Sam

ECM isnt on its own regarding the reload though - gfs showing hints of this run to run, around the qst of july. If we're lucky we'll end up some light shows through july! Sam

Hi All. Seems to be some model agreement for atleast a graze of continental air and incoming cold front from next tuesday - gfs developing more of a low than ecm - currently showing some good jet speeds also - Cheers, Sam

is that a cell gone up just south of Salisbury ? Edit - sorry, I meant wset of ...

sferics showing up in that lump exiting portland/weymouth

Dont see any graphic there ess! I think your right though, the trough showing its hand now - the cold front, imo, still west of the mainland but fast approaching

ok going to stick my neck out! electrifications going to happen in the next few hours, from west to east - if it doesnt, I wont post for 3 months lol Sam

we are expecting an upper trough to move in across the south tonight, which should change the game a little - the precip running up through the ountry at the moment doesnt have all the ingredients in place, but imo its about now that we need to watch the band of intensity move north across the south - to take a stab I'd say the bristol area and west in a couple of hours time, and then more central and eastern southern parts early morning. Torro wouldn't have put out that forecst without having a good view synopticaly of whats going to be added ingredient wise, while most of us just have the radar to go by - that said anything could happen! Sam edit: serious downpour here!!!

here's something to salivate at for http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fcoupes_wrf.php Translated metieocel wrf nmm, showing an mcs at 11pm over my area, then an even more intense mcs moving up across central regions - at 11pm the northern west country/southern midlands has some notable 0-3km helicity, and with 15c dewpoints I'm not sure these will be elevated (?) Could be a flashfest tonight!! Sam #Edit: Might need to select WRF NMM on the bottom left menu ..