anvilhead

thanks Ian. I dont know what the sst's are currently in the irish sea/off scotland, but given the predicted 850 temps and the wind direction in the middle of next week, maybe a polar low running down the irish sea isn't entirely out of the question.. 850's of -9 & sst's of 6c would do it id imagine .. Don't get excited though everyone - you'll learn I dont really know what I'm talking about!

I see what you mean from the radar I think. The lines pepping up as it hits the marlborough downs to the south, almost looks like the shower behind got out of phase with a faster moving trough and its skipped poor old Marlborough.

Incidently the A419 also had whiteout conditions from that Bristol channel snow streamer a while ago just before swindon - made for some spectacular driving conditions, if that's the right word. I take it these showers are the result of the vorticity you mention, and also a weak trough shown moving through on the fax charts Ian ? looks great out there

haha! - I'm in south cerney - about 3 miles south of Cirencester. Just saw the attached radar image, fell off my chair when I recognised cirencester, looked outside and its all white!

happy new year all! have to say its only a matter of time for snow across our area if it turns out anything like the charts are showing - even without the snow its been an incredible spell of weather imo and it looks like getting colder! various troughs etc through the coming week, and even saturday morning looks interesting for a light fall of snow

bristol channel shower heading towards gloucester/chelt!

it probably means diddly squat but there is a wrap around of dryer air at the 700mb level for tomorrow afternoon over the south shown on the NAE model, while the precips still in place. not that im clutching at straws lol

temps seem to be dropping quickly over the sw - bristol with a forecast(bbc)low of 1c tonight allready showing 0/0c at 17:20.. Sam

last time I saw 180 degree difference between lower and upper clouds was july 22nd 07! constand feed ov low winds from the north, constant venting above the other way, and big cb's just sat there over us turning the south into a lake... oh how I'd love 130mm in snow lol amen to this thread being peaceful and optimistic Pat - its a real pleasure to read Eyes down for radar and xcweather for tonight - who needs sleep hey :lol:

temps seem just a wee bit colder than forecast by the ukmo right now for this time - for midnight bristol should be about 1.5c - will be interesting to see what actualy happens before the front

is that some sort of polar low off the n coast of scotland on that chart ?

latest ukmo seems to decrease thickness above us and bring in the easterlys on wednesday - exact oposite from what the gfs was showing. BBC seeming very confident with the path of the low and the cold air not budging when this front comes over - I'm starting to loose my internal inbuilt pessimism now and realising this could be a serious dumping of snow! we'll see though..

as I said earlier, I think forecasters will write off the gfs at thier peril! - very different to other models in the short term, but consistent..

00z not looking good for us southerners. still - i believe it will keep the forecast blizzard for nyd (for now!)

Why GFS? Covering your back? lol The GFS is the only model showing this......Can all the over models (which are very alike) sunddenly back track completely, would be amazing if they did! And probably put a spanner in model watching completely!

I supose it depends what you mean by forecast. Lots of us have been looking at temps and precip for the whole of this area for a while, so we're just talking how chances have increased/decreased i supose. THe latest gfs rules out wednesday for snow completely from what i can see

bristol & cirencester/cheltenham area about 1.5c at 10am tuesday on the gfs 12z .. gonna be close! ok scrub that - the 12z gfs brings up mild air to the tune of 8c by wednesday - either forecasters ignore the gfs at thier peril at <3 days, or the plane data really is screwing with the starting conditions of the gfs ... I'm leaning towards the gfs though personaly

no probs! my take is for big dumpings of snow, we need to welcome borderline situations as we need the warm air to get the clouds piling upwards, so dont loose faith in the biblical potential of the sw! it might just take a few goes

I'd say your not ruled out & not ruled in yet Tom. Some forecasts put you in the snow, some leave the whole area out - best not pin too much hope on it, and watch the next charts & forecast sam

hey all. Thanks Ian as always. I'm worried about the gfs! - I know its behind the ukmo and ecm short to mid term, but its hard to dismiss the model that I look at the most (the one i have the most links for ) From what I read we dismiss the gfs, and from wednesday at somepoint onwards its game on, giving us a good few days of snow (I'm in cirencester). Temps on gfs just dont cut it though. here comes the 12z anyway - if it is wrong, then we'll see the change now i suspect.

Hey Pat. Merry xmas mate! - looks interesting doesnt it - fingers crossed

Hey all - hope you had a great one :lol: I've just been looking at the 12z gfs charts for next week on meteociel.fr .. I know this is IMBY, and you'll all have a handle on your areas anyway (Check the meteociel.fr link and the 0.5 gfs model if not, but here's what the 12z shows for the cirencester/cotswolds area. tuesday 29 1am 0c - no precip tuesday 29 4am -1c - no precip tuesday 29 7am 0c - no precip tuesday 29 10am 0c - no precip tuesday 29 1pm 2c - 1-2mm (3 Hr) tuesday 29 4pm 2c - 2-5mm (3 Hr) tuseday 29 7pm 2c - 2-5mm (3 hr) tuesday 29 10pm 0c - 1-2mm (3 Hr) wednesday 30 1am 1c - 0.5-1mm (3 Hr) --- wednesday 30 7am 1c - 2-5mm (6 Hr) --- wednesday 30 1pm 1.5c - 5-10mm (6 Hr) --- wednesday 30 7pm 1.5c - 10-15mm (6 Hr) --- thursday 31 1am 1c 2-5mm (6 Hr) --- thursday 31 7am 1c - 10-15mm (6 Hr) --- thursday 31 1pm 0c - 5-10mm (6 Hr) --- thursday 31 7pm 0c - 5-10mm (6 Hr) --- friday 1 1am 0c - 0.2-0.5mm (6 Hr) --- friday 1 7am 0c - 0.1-0.2 mm (6 Hr) I dint think the gfs serves up dewpoints, but from what I can tell the chance of snow increases wednesday onwards after some rain initialy possibly. I think the precip amounts are just a guide this far out at best - there will be a couple of cores of heavy precip running through i'd imagine with larger numbers than this, which at this far out could affect north or south of where modeled (or nowhere ofcourse!). Interesting to see how the temps match up though .. Sam in addition - the above is comparable rain amounts, so anything falling as snow as a rough guide you need to times by 10 to get the snowfall depth. If it snows from tuesday night onwards, thats a modeled minimum of 39.8 mm by the end of the period, equating to 39cm of snow - over a foot. However! - easy to get carried away by charts as you all know - it may not get cold enough to snow atall in our area, and precip amounts may be substancialy reduced even if they stay cold. All sucking eggs though as everyone knows this. But hell - what's life without hope hey :lol: Sam

erm.. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn842.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn844.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn962.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn964.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png Bingo ??? Surprise Surely I must be missing something - thats a bloody snowfest 3.5 days away!

just waiting for this lump of precip to reach cirencestert (im just to the south) - the roads are glistening out there - could be interesting! looks like it'll just skirt south - interesting though as surface winds are SE'ly, and shower movement southwesterly ..

3c difference between lyneham and fairford right now! fairford being -1c