kar999

I wasn't sure if the above big C class flare was 756 or 758. It appears to have been the new region 758. Region 758 (S07E63) was responsible for a long duration C8 flare at 02/2248 UTC and an associated CME. A very bright post eruption arcade was visible on SXI and EIT imagery. Region 758's limb proximity is hindering a full analysis, owever, it appears to be a moderately complex beta-gamma group.

This last weekends' solar wind didn't appear to produce any major activity at our latitudes although Alaska had a good showing. Things are also beginning to quieten down now with Sunspot 756 decaying. It has however, unless it was new spot 758, churned out its strongest flare yet, a C6 at 00:15UT today. Unfortunately it's position will become less geoeffective as, within the next few days, it will have rotated towards the far side. Written before the C6 flare noted above. (SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2005) Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 758 (S10E74) produced a C2.2 flare at 02/0007 UTC. Region 756 (S08W23) continues to decay; however, the region still exhibits a beta-delta magnetic configuration. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery. The first was a full halo at 02/0526 UTC and the second was off the west limb at 02/1327 UTC. Both CME's are backside events and are not expected to be geoeffective.

Latest update: Active to minor storming conditions are expected on 01 May due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Peak solar wind speeds are expected on 02 May which may lead to isolated periods of major storming. VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/45 Minor storm 10/15/25 Major-severe storm 05/10/15 B. High Latitudes Active 25/40/40 Minor storm 10/20/40 Major-severe storm 05/10/20

I had the same alert on the way home from work. Its probably because the Interplantery Magnetic Field has tilted South which is always a good sign (see first dial). Things appear to have quietened down now but around midnight is always a good time. Like DX says however, the next couple of days may be more interesting for those in Northern parts of the UK. Keep your eyes on the real tiime data pinned above in this topic. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

Those in Northern parts of the UK might get a chance of some activity over the weekend if the coronal wind becomes geoeffective around 1st May. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 29 and 30 April. Active to minor storm conditions are possible on 01 May due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal stream. VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/05

... probably but you can live in hope!

A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released. Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays. This radiation then travels to Earth and affects our geomagnetic field which can then cause the Aurora (northern lights) by generating geomagnetic storms here. I'll try and find you a link for more detailed explanations. EDIT: Nice site from Norway that helps expain the Northern Lights. http://www.northern-lights.no/english/what/cause.shtml

I know this is a bit late in posting but this lot gave a few claps of thunder at around 8:30pm yesterday 26 April. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p..._album&album=77

Sunspot 756 has been upgraded to M-class potential. Space Weather Outlook 27 April – 23 May 2005 Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity from new Region 756 (S07, L=228, class/area, Dko/550 on 26 April). A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 - 29 April, 02 – 08 May, and 10 – 16 May. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to major storm levels on 01 – 03 May; and unsettled to minor storm levels on 09 – 11 May. Quiet to active levels are expected on 17 – 18 and 20 – 22 May. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions. SWO PRF 1547 26 April 2005

Dx, I read the same report but it kicked out a C class flare at 04:40 Universal Time today. C5 to be exact. This report was written at 22:00 UT last night before the C5 flare. New Region 756 (S06E68) is rotating into view on the southeast limb. Although this region's close proximity to the limb is hindering the analysis, it does appear to be a moderate size sunspot group, with initial measurements of over 400 millionths in white light area. The CME activity on 22 April may have been associated with this region; however, activity in the past 48 hours was limited to occasional B-class flares. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 756 has the potential to produce C-class flares Maybe the sunspot might develop further and deliver a few X class flares. We can but hope! I think the next couple of days will tell if it has the potential.

Current Forecast. 01-03 May looks promising. Space Weather Outlook 13 April - 09 May 2005 Solar activity is expected be at very low to low levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is not expected. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 13 – 15 April, 22 – 29 April, and again on 03 – 08 May. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams are expected to produce unsettled to minor storm levels on 13 – 14 April; unsettled to active levels on 21 – 23 April; and unsettled to major storm levels on 01 – 03 May. Otherwise, expect quiet to unsettled conditions. SWO PRF 1545 12 April 2005

Jim Henderson from near Aberdeen managed to spot the Aurora on the 12th though. Crooktree, 25 miles west of Aberdeen, Scotland near River Dee. Apr. 12. Short lived and very late from 12.35-12.55GMT. 10degree Arc with a few rays. (Credit J Henderson/spaceweather.com)

As expected, activity increased last night but I have seen no reports of any visible activity in the UK. The solar wind magnetic field has been southward for 8 hours and the velocity is climbing steadily. There should be aurora visible from southern Scandinavia, Scotland and from the US states that border Canada on the night of the 11th and perhaps the 12th of April. Maybe mid to lower latitudes might fair better tonight. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April). Alaska, as always, is getting an absolutely stunning display right now (09:00am BST - see live webcam link higher up in this thread).

MM0NDX, Things read much the same currently at NOAA The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to continue for 12-13 April. The Bz Magnetic field component has been dipped to the South for a while which is possibly a promising sign. Otherwise its quiet now, but I'll be keeping my eye on the indicators tonight for any suprises. Having said that it's cloudy here at the moment. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...howtopic=14968#

That'll be sunspot 750. Not a real threat right now.

Most definitly Aurora Dazmaster. Reports here of Blue Aurora last night from East Antrim. After arriving home from the latest EAAS meeting i spotted a nice blue aurora in the north and west approx 12* in height. I have also spotted 3 lightning flashes as well. the activity is still ongoing as i write this. I am going back out again now! If anyone is reading this now then check the sky..... http://eaas.proboards31.com/index.cgi?boar...&num=1112659403

Fairbanks Alaska is getting a nice show right now. 22:37 Alaska Time (08:37 BST) Live streaming webcam. http://www.aurorawebcam.com/webcam.php?page=aurorawebcam

I said last night I wished I'd been further North... Aberdeen would have done it! (credit Spaceweather.com/Jim Henderson) When the sun went down in Scotland last night, the skies lit up with auroras. "It was not a very strong display," says photographer Jim Henderson, "but it was the first we've seen since February." He took this picture at Crooktree, 25 miles west of Aberdeen: More auroras are possible tonight as a solar wind stream continues to buffet Earth's magnetic field. The best displays, if any, will be over Alaska, Canada and northern Europe.

No probs Dx... shame it's not a major shout... the skies as clear as bell here tonight! OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

Capt DX, I thing were need to move further North! You've got a 250+ mile head start on me!

More info... probably not beefy enough for us. A historically vigorous coronal hole disturbance is beginning to recur at the present time and will remain potentially vigorous through at least 05 or 06 April. Periods of moderately strong auroral activity may become visible over the higher latitudes (although observing activity may be quite difficult given twilight conditions over the northern hemisphere). There is a chance for brief sightings of activity over dark-sky middle latitude sites as well, particularly over the next 24 to 48 hours.