Jackfrost

Snow just about covering East Wales on Monday on the 10:35 BBC forecast. Behnaz mentioned the possibility of snow Monday too.

When was that picture taken Natalie? December 2010? Amazing month. Two of my pictures from the 17th. Good day, that. The rest in my gallery: http://forum.netweat...wales-17-12-10/

Am I sensing a general lifting of the mood in here?

Variability of the models, not much else I'm afraid! Nothing was ever set in stone. It doesn't help that Wales is more Atlantic-influenced than most places, and we're sitting in a warm sector on Monday.

Some light and patchy snow on higher ground in South Wales tomorrow night, Monday currently seems unlikely.

Gosh, you're right. The two light coverings I saw in February 2012 don't count. Can't remember when there was such a long gap between proper lying snow, even the dark days of the late 90s-early 00s were more productive than this extended snowless patch. So, to recap: our snow warning for tomorrow has been removed and while a warning for Monday has been issued, Wales is one of the few parts of the UK to not be included, save for a small sliver of the northeast. Forgive me for being a little pessimistic.

Tomorrow's snow warning from the Met Office has done a disappearing act and the wording of the ice warning has changed: "Outbreaks of rain, sleet and some snow will clear southwards during Saturday night..."

This makes for an interesting read: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/How-deep-can-it-get.htm Note the last paragraph. Surprising (or perhaps not so?) to learn that our little corner of the UK holds both tied records for deepest level snow in a populated place. Shows how well we can do when everything is in our favour.

Am I the only one who feels that the Met Office's warning of 2-5 cm of snow on lower ground and 5-10 cm on high ground is wildly optimistic? Based on the latest output, I can't see more than a few hours of patchy, light snow falling on top of already wet ground. December 21st 1999 is still the ultimate rain-to-snow event for me. Anyone else remember it? Hear hear. I cringed when I came across them, unfortunate and embarrassing for the Wales forum.

The models aren't quite in agreement about next week, but I'm alright with that as an alternative to it being cold. Anything but the static grey murk we've had for the last week.

I'm wary of this warning. More or less identical warnings of rain-to-snow events covered this part of Wales several times last winter, with identical amounts of snow forecast. In the end, we had hours of sleet and wet snow while slightly higher ground saw it settle. From an IMBY perspective, I'm right on the border of the warning area so I shan't get overexcited just yet.

Surprised nobody in the Wales forum has picked up on this: Lunchtime BBC Wales forecast showed snow for Saturday in the four day outlook, "especially towards the northeast", with the prospect of more snow on Monday.

Yeah, no reason why we'd be pleased Tony! I don't post too often any more, but you seemed to do a good job at hosting.

The models have upgraded the chance of a snowy breakdown later this week with a chance that the cold will cling on (albeit a minimal chance in our part of the world). It still isn't clear where the cold/mild boundary will be. Regardless, things are looking much rosier than they were last night.

I can't hide my disappointment as the snow chances diminish once again. It's especially frustrating given the large snowfall totals across Europe, including just across the Channel in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. It's the price we pay for living on the rim of an ocean, in the direct path of prevailing winds and currents. One consolation is that it's early in the season and the chances are greater than not of us getting lucky at some point. Let's not forget that historically, the southwestern part of Britain (Southwest England/South Wales) has seen the most severe blizzards in the country. It's only in the last 30 years that we've not had one; it's almost guaranteed to happen again some day, and we'll all be very happy campers when it does.

I think confidence in Tuesday's event has evaporated, but later on next week is starting to look like a good bet with professional forecasters and the MetO catching on. Wales could be the place to be! I wonder why the Welsh and Scottish governments don't have a similar warning system to England's. It wouldn't cost a fortune to implement.

From what I can tell on the traffic cams, it's snowing up at Dowlais Top. Plain old rain here, especially frustrating since it's sleeting/hailing south of here (with Andy and Wales123098).

I'm normally very guarded when it comes to these kind of events SSIB, but I have a feeling there may be a few surprises today, even if those surprises turn to rain as the evening goes on and the warm sector gets involved. A few flakes of snow falling now and then here.

That's probably most likely, Blackjack. A period of snow over our area, followed by rain/sleet with any snow confined to the top of the valleys, the Beacons and the other usual suspect places in Wales.

I'm not so certain. There's been something of an upgrade for snow over Wales from this front, albeit high ground. The BBC forecast at 8.15 showed widespread snow over inland mid and north Wales and snow to higher ground in the Valleys, so I'd expect this front to at least start off as snow in many places. Also, there are a fair few small showers developing in the Bristol Channel heading in our direction.

Ouch, that does! I'm sure you all know what I meant, it's rather early.

Snow falling and settling across South Wales which has surprised us a bit. It isn't part of the main front but small showers could show up for you Midlanders, so keep your ears eyes peeled.

SNOOOOWING, hurrah! And not just on the highest ground this morning. I'm quite surprised since the Met O forecast called for sleet with snow on the mountains yet it's snowing on relatively low ground (Nantgarw, Talbot Green and Bridgend). Then again, how can I be surprised given these temperatures? Bloody freezing.

Thinking about it, and being a total IMBY, as spectacular as these charts are I'd much prefer a straight northerly as opposed to an easterly. I realise that snow can come from any direction once the cold is embedded but unless the Atlantic is active (which it isn't) and repeatedly pushing fronts into the cold block, we run a real risk of Wales being dry but bitterly cold. The reason the model thread has exploded is because it's dominated by people who would be plastered by a rerun of January 1987. Yes, there's a slight amount of jealousy talking here. There are always exceptions of course. A strong easterly can push snow right across the country like in 1991, and cold, sunny weather is much more preferable to overcast skies and 11C.

I nodded off for a bit and now I've checked Netweather, a little bleary eyed, and everybody seems to be in a snow-induced stupor like I've never seen. What's happened? Anything to suggest that these charts are more likely to come off than the coldmageddon charts of two weeks ago?