Relativistic

I'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt

I agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly. The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists. I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.

Some people on the MOD thread are so effing negative.

Significant downgrades? Pretty sure it was only showing for a day or so. The tropospheric drivers seem to be aligning nicely. Do we even need an SSW at this point? No SSW now could even work in our favour if it means an SSW happens a little further down the line; might lead to an extension of cold weather in the medium term should the troposphere deliver.

Why are we talking about wine on a winter discussion thread? Models are currently flirting with the idea of a UK high. I could definitely do with some cold frosty weather at the moment.

My thoughts exactly. Surely we'll need at least another week before anything becomes remotely clear on the model outputs. I've been skimming the thread these last few days and I was under the impression that what was showing at day 10 was always a tropospheric-led bonus?

The definition of an SSW is somewhat arbitrary. Just because we might not get a technical reversal doesn't mean there won't be impacts that downwell.

Agree re March 2013. Over a week of lying snow post-solstice in Essex. Snow showers and frosts into early April.

I started paying attention to the weather in 2009 and have spent some fraction of each Decembers since in Essex. Despite having witnessed notable cold and snowfalls in the lead-up to Christmas in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017, and 2022, I've never seen a Christmas with proper snowcover. We had some remaining icy slush in 2009 and 2010, and a return to mild weather in 2012, 2017, and 2022. Would be interested to hear from older members when the last proper white Christmas around here was. One day.. As for the period in question, I recall some good frosty/icy spells in 2014, 2020, and perhaps a couple of others.

You would think so. The Hadley cell's got to be bigger than it was 30 years ago.

It amazes me how reliably the lead-up to Christmas is mild, wet, and windy these days. The first half of December almost always seems to be colder than the second half (I haven't verified this so please prove me wrong if this is false).

-0.5°C yesterday -- season's first subzero mean

Value for yesterday was 0.3°C, so almost a subzero mean. Perhaps we'll achieve the season's first today.

-7.1C in Shap as of 11pm

December 2012

The sambuca was a good call

I think you're understating December 2022 a little. Ten consecutive subzero daily CET means is quite rare; easily outdid 2012. See this thread for historical comparisons:

12.1°C final figure https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

This is essentially just the 'warm September means a mild winter' idea being peddled again.

Should get a decent run of single-figure means from Saturday onwards.

This goes against my intuition. I would've expected the opposite trend.

I spend my Christmas Days in Essex and it almost always seems cloudy. Often mild as well.

Haven't seen anything higher than this quoted by the MO.

So looks like 33.2°C at Kew Gardens was the hottest day of the year so far.

Is there a site that tracks the highest UK readings in real time? Netweather's tracker is okay but updates only hourly.