Relativistic

Yes, and if it's a recent thing the more likely scenario is that all months are warming and therefore above-average X and above-average DJF are correlated. Take May to be X. Since 1990, 13+°C Mays occurred in 1992, 1998, 2008, 2017, 2018 and 2022. Only DJF that wasn't mild in that list is 2008/09. We're yet to hit our 2008/09 for September but it's bound to happen at some point. Hopefully it's 2023/24.

September 2016 reached 34.4°C on the 13th. That was the hottest day of 2016 and the hottest September temperature since 1911.

What's your current 2023 maximum?

Did I speak too soon...?

I'd wait till mid-month at the absolute earliest before making any predictions regarding September's possible status as this year's warmest month.

If we get a mild winter then we'll have the same conversation next year regarding Septembers. So please, weather gods, give us an almighty cold one

Did my paper round from March 2010 to September 2014. Remember many a traditional winter morning during that period but don't recall as much re autumn. There were some good frosts in late October 2010 and of course the cold weather at the end of the following November. Recall some frosts mid-October 2011 but nothing unusual, and some falling snow at the end of October 2012. Favourite autumn month is November 2016 when I was also up early because of uni commitments. That one was often cold, crisp and frosty.

Looking more and more likely we'll get a normal annual max this year. Achieving 33+°C in September is quite difficult; last time was 2016 I think.

How often is your max recorded this early? Still time for it to be broken I suppose.

Noticed the leaves are just starting to turn on one or two trees. Last time I remember it being this early was in 2017 when I lived in Brum.

We're not even halfway yet..

I thought the same initially. It's easy to forget how hot June was given the unsettled weather since.

Wow, can't believe we were close to average. Seemed cloudier than usual, though perhaps I'm forgetting some sunny days earlier on in the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt July confirmed as 16.1°C.

Indeed, and it's the second month this year that's done so. After a few days in the 7s early on in the month, the running mean for April never moved out of the 8s.

Think sunshine's much more a factor than temperatures tbh. A cold, frosty, sunny day in winter really lifts people's spirits in my experience. I walked ~10 miles in July 2019 in 39°C Nevada heat. It's surprisingly okay; as long as you seek the shade when you can and stay hydrated then it's very manageable. I wouldn't call it comfortable, but definitely more tolerable than walking on a humid 30°C day in the UK.

Often if I'm outdoors it means I'm moving about, in which case 25°C is much too hot. If I'm out on a walk then a feels-like temperature of 15°C will do me if I'm in a t-shirt and shorts. If I'm stationary then 18-22°C, but 25°C is fine. If I'm running or playing football then 8-10°C and drizzle is about right for me. I've played 5-a-side subzero in usual football wear and that's enough to keep me warm, but that sort of thing really gets the blood flowing! As the above demonstrates, though, to make this a yes-or-no question is an oversimplification. The activity one finds themselves doing in such temperatures, as well as humidity, wind speed, etc. all make a difference. Location is a massive factor too; a Shetlander and a Londoner would likely disagree on the matter.

Not relevant to this thread strictly speaking, but the jump from January 1795 (-3.1C; coldest on record) to January 1796 (7.3C; third-mildest on record) is very hard to imagine. A differential of 10.4C!

Feels like a standard June/July unsettled spell tbh. I'm enjoying this unsettled weather personally. Sunshine and warmth is nice for a while but after a month of it, fresh, rainy air is heavenly. I've really made the most of the last month but now I'm bored of being hot and sweaty. Perhaps I'll have had my fix of fresher conditions come mid-July.

The exception being the south-east. Similarly in Edinburgh; very thick frost that built day after day, but little snow. I flew from Edinburgh to Stansted on the evening of Friday the 16th. Edinburgh was 3°C when I left which felt positively balmy after a week of subzero temperatures. I wore well-aerated shorts for that very reason. Walking off the plane at Stansted into -8°C, freezing fog, and thick, frosty snow, I soon realised my mistake.

Many places had this in December 2022.

Agreed. Far too early to be making calls about how warm it'll end up. Would be interesting to break the current streak though.

I suspect this is a recent phenomenon that sooner or later will become a feature further north. Scotland recorded its first 35°C last year. Anyone got the maximum temperatures for Leeds and/or Manchester going back, say, to 1970? I suspect 30°C wasn't anywhere near as frequent back then.

Seem to remember June 2013 beginning in a similar vein.

Any Geordies about? Noticed that Newcastle is/will be having an absolute shocker this week. Maxima in the 12-14C range, thick grey cloud and a keen wind. We've fared much better here as we're less exposed to the North sea.