Relativistic

Was in Chicago for much of March, huge variation from day to day but was chilly/cold most of the time and as you say certainly no vegetation growth. Re warmth, the best we had was 18C one afternoon -- worlds different from the -6C we had when we left the airport, but was down to single figures and cold rain the next day...

What's remarkable is that yesterday's 3.1C was the coldest daily mean since the 25th January's 2.9C.

Confirmed as 7.9C -- joint-11th-warmest with 1998, 1991, 1981, 1945, 1780, and 1779. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt Edit: Looks like Summer Sun just beat me to it.

Exactly, but an educated guess is more than just 'speculation'.

Not really. After years of observing trends in corrections based on dominant weather patterns you can usually have a pretty decent stab.

The 1961-90 mean max in the CET zone is about 8C at this time of year, so even historically 6-7C is on the chilly side.

I cannot believe that some seriously peddle this 'warm September = mild Winter' theory. There's a clear recency bias here. If someone can actually prove a statistically-significant correlation between September and Winter CETs across the entire time series and not just peddle crap based on a cluster of recent cases (i.e. small-number statistics) then I'll start listening.

'...a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day.' Is the whole dataset being adjusted??

November's CET was simply a mistake with one of the data (as Roger pointed out). Other recent corrections have been on the larger side of normal but nothing unusual.

While I agree with you to an extent, I think that, had we had access to the present-day models back in, say, the mild winters of the 1970s, cold-and-snow enthusiasts like ourselves would have regularly moaned about failed cold spells. The models are aware that the world is warm as those data are fed into them, and since global warming doesn't act on time scales of a few days, it can't be the reason that predicted cold outcomes fail to materialise? IMO, these failed events are due to more fundamental flaws in the models; the differential equations, or the methods used to numerically solve them, seem to have a cold bias in the medium range (at least in our locale), and this needs addressing. The same can be said for some models which have a propensity to 'blow up' lows.

Just came across this:

Apart from the obvious error for the 30th the correction doesn't seem ridiculous to me. There've been many corrections in the past that have been around -0.5C, and they go back quite far (I remember August 2011 having a huge drop). The data may well be corrected at some point as I've seen figures change in the past. The anomaly for February 2012 was listed as 0.0C for the remainder of 2012, which was corrected to +0.1C at the end of the year, suggesting that perhaps one of the daily values was reviewed and corrected.

My apologies; thanks for the correction.

Depends on your source: The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

-23.0°C, coldest temperature since 1995 and coldest February temperature since 1978.

I see October is down as 12.1C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

A thoroughly uninteresting month, especially when the rest of the year has been such a see-saw. First month this year that will come in close to average CET-wise.

People on this forum are the fussiest I've ever encountered when it comes to summer weather.

Amazing to me that nobody has yet disputed the authenticity of the 100F claim given that the Fahrenheit scale was invented six centuries later.

It's a 0.2°C downward adjustment due to urban heating; not 0.3°C. The reasoning above is why some were (rightly) sceptical of the provisional figures. There's no need for accusations to be thrown around when there's genuine confusion.

I doubt the provisional data are. As for the final figures -- yes, which is why often see marked adjustments.

16.6°C and 80mm.

Middle third was 13.7C and the final third was 14.3C.

The opening third is provisionally 16.4C -- also the warmest since 2004, which was 16.6C. Before that you have to go back to 1982, which was a whopping 18.6C.

Both the late 1700s and the 1940s were pretty wild, especially if you're after Spring heat. Loads of daily records from these periods.