Relativistic

There was an excellent anticyclonic spell mid-January which helped. There was some very mild weather between then and the first 12 days of February (which averaged sub-zero); the 31-day average masks this see-sawing.

Sennybridge and Topcliffe were both -8C at midnight. Fingers crossed we can set a new low for the season.

The MO app on my phone says -8C in the West Midlands tonight. Could some places go lower than this?

Both November (2016) and March (2013) have managed it in the same period. Surprising since December, January and February are more likely to see larger negative anomalies. Fingers crossed for February.

CET max for 1st March 1986 was 2.0C. Perhaps the northern half of the CET zone was milder. The mean was -0.2C.

The ice day on 1st March 2018 was a special one for central England as it broke the March record (-1.2C max; previous record was -0.7C on the 6th March 1942).

There's a manual station in the region (Dawyck botanic garden; see link below). Perhaps we'll get a lower reading later today. Synoptic and climate stations WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The map shows the current network of synoptic and climate stations covering the UK.

A friend of mine from Madrid today reported 50cm of level snow. Most I've ever seen in the UK is half that -- if only I also lived at 700m elevation!

Surprised no one's mentioned February 2012 -- was a stunner in Essex. Six inches of snow on the 4th followed by a week of bitterly cold easterlies. Some very low maxima on the 11th (-12C or below in Essex; elsewhere many places in England fell comfortably below -15C). The CET for the 14-day period commencing on 30th January was -0.7C. Not ultra-severe but certainly worthy of mention. My memory of specific weather events only goes back to 2009, so my top spots would have to be late March 2013 and late February/early March 2018.

Assuming that 1st-10th January averages 1C then this gives a mean of 0.8C for the period 28th December to 10th January. The coldest 14-day period 2018 had to offer was 1.2C from 21st February to 6th March (the 5th and 6th of March pulled this figure up, both at 5.9C). The coldest such period in 2013 was 12th-25th January, whose mean was -0.4C.

You mean 1684 MIA? Been casually observing the model thread for a number of years, but never seen a chart like this. Truly awesome.

A direct feed from that monster cold pool in Siberia. Mouthwatering... shame it's in FI

I'm infinitely jealous. I was in Essex at the time; it was an excellent month but it didn't have that truly Arctic feel that everywhere away from the south-east had -- a very dull month and rarely crisp and clear.

Yes. One of the reasons I chose Edinburgh when transitioning from Master's to PhD was because I knew the Winters would be colder. Now that I'm here though I realise Birmingham wasn't half-bad in Winter!!

Used to downgrades and the Atlantic smashing through so will go for 4.4C and hope that I end up bottom of the pack. As for rainfall, I'll plump for 110mm.

Yes, a mixture of milder and colder spells this month -- pretty much exactly what you'd expect from December: the Atlantic has yet to properly quieten down but intrusions of colder air become increasingly likely. Looks like the CET will reflect this, although rainfall will be higher than normal. It's a shame the source air wasn't/isn't colder during the month's colder incursions, with the extreme cold currently bottled up in Siberia. Perhaps a favourable SSW is what's needed to shift it west! It's very likely the annual CET will be around 10.7C -- either joint-third- or fourth-warmest on record, primarily due to the warm first-half (which, of course, gave way to cooler, cloudier, and wetter weather as soon as restrictions were lifted...).

Last four days are provisionally recorded as 4.4C on the 27th, 1.5C on the 28th, and 1.3C on the 29th and 30th. Wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments here. I do wonder if they shift the measurement period from 12am-12am to 9am-9am (I think perhaps Roger or someone else has mentioned this before), since the value of 4.4C on the 27th would be consistent with (roughly) an 8C maximum at midnight and a 0C minimum 24 hours later; if the measurement period is shifted then we could see the value for the 27th drop a little. As for today, maybe we'll record the month's only negative value.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a finish of 5.0C (drop 0.1C per day till the 31st plus a 0.3C downward correction).

Thanks as usual Roger. I note you've quoted coldest daily CET means of any month, and I think there's a mistake here? The 12th December 1981 was -8.5C, which is colder than the -7.7C and -8.4C you quote from 1987 and 1963. (Maybe I'm misinterpreting something?) As for my guesses, I shall wait till the end of the month.

Thanks, very interesting. Not surprised to see a sustained dip from May to July, and nor the dip in December. Surprised by the dip from mid-January to mid-February, but not at all by the mild spike at the start of the year (seems to have been a feature of a number of recent Januaries; 2013 is a good example of this). Not surprised to see peaks in early Spring and late Autumn either; there have been plenty of very mild Marches, Aprils, Octobers, and Novembers in recent years. Slightly surprised by the peak in early August, but I guess a few severe heatwaves have coincided in this period which may be pulling the figures up a little (1995, 2003, and 2020 spring to mind).

First half of December 2012 was a beautiful spell of weather in Essex. A surprise snowfall on the morning of the 5th brought three inches of snow, and we had the most spectacular hoar frost on the 12th. All very seasonal; shame it didn't last till Christmas!!

Latest article on the monster that is A68a. Its edges seem to be rapidly breaking up but the sheer enormity of the thing means it's no less of a threat than it previously was to the ecosystem of South Georgia. It does, however, seem (roughly) to be moving with local currents; if it continues to do this and in the process manages not to wedge itself on the sea floor then it should drift harmlessly around South Georgia. BBC News - Giant iceberg A68a prangs seabed and loses corner https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55355381

I mentioned this in another thread. The 1st March 2018 was the fourth coldest March day for central England since 1772. That's simply astonishing. It wasn't a prolonged spell, but it certainly proves that the British Isles are still capable of experiencing extraordinarily cold synoptics. With that said, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the UK will see another sub-zero Winter month. IMO It's not a matter of if, but when. Hopefully I'm not wrong.

I agree with you on almost everything you've said. I disputed a different point you made about the 80s being "not that special in the context of the entire century", which one can easily argue is not true. Anyway, hopefully the links I provided you with regarding warming were useful.

I'm not debating that. My original point was that basing expectations on an exceptional series of childhood Winters, which you disputed as being not exceptional temperature-wise, is a little unrealistic; I then provided evidence against your dispute. You can easily find the data you're looking for here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt This if for central England only; if you want nationwide data you'll have to look elsewhere. No doubt you'll see that the Winter months have warmed (again, not what I refuted). There's even a thread for this topic here: