Kent Clipper

ECM 216...impressive !

It's mid winter meaning there is no solar input to aid convection over land. Coastal areas will be most prone and inland areas too when troughs and other disturbances form. (Such mesoscale features normally only show up within 48 hours). I wouldn't be too concerned. If it was mid summer under the same setup inland would be a rash of thunderstorms with coasts relatively dry.

The 15 day extended EC 12z ensembles have trended colder too with fairly tight agreement now out to the 4th January. Its very interesting to see the NE'ly vector appearing to be the form horse at 4 to 5th January. ECMWF Forecasts WWW.ECMWF.INT

ECMWF Forecasts WWW.ECMWF.INT This is creeping up on us. The 12z ECM ensembles for Reading are COLD !

As alluded by other the 850Hpa's are not the be all and end all (although it obviously helps). I'd rather see a slack flow with cold pooling with modest 850Hpa's of -3 or -4 rather than a steady breeze (mixing) with uppers of -6 or -7. Yesterday was a prime example here. At 3pm a rain shower pushed through, at the time we were under 522 dam, -7c (850's) and -2 (950's). On paper these parameters appear supportive of at least a wintry mix, the killer was the strong (force 6) NNW'ly. From a purely selfish Kent perspective I'm encouraged to see a relatively slack offshore NW'ly flow in the lead up to New Year. Any S or SW'ly influence off the channel warms the boundary layer. I'm also encouraged to see troughs, shallow daughter lows and enhanced convection spiralling around on occasions and a distinct lack of maritime flows in this period. I'm still of the opinion that the models are underplaying wintriness. What a great time of year for such an interesting synoptic pattern to establish. We will learn a lot from this spell..that's for sure. Thereafter we have the SSW event. Again, something to keep an interested eye on. The fact that the warming is occuring over our segment of the hemisphere fills me with more hope than the early 2019 effort that occured around the other side of a failed to place a dent in a ravaging PV. Happy Christmas all.

Great time to have joined this forum. So much useful content being shared and discussed.

An absolutely fascinating set up emerging. Its the perfect time of year to put faith in the UK's ability to see how effectively it can generate its own special cold pool next week. As we all know the longer the synoptic pattern holds up, the denser the air, the harder it becomes to shift. Rather than focussing too much on 850Hpa's we need to keep an eye on the 925's and 950's. If you can get temps at this height close to 0c then you have every chance of bringing the snowline to the boundary layer if the precipitation is heavy enough and the lack of breeze prevents mixing. Easier still if pressure is low. eg. if its 0c at 950Hpa and you have a SLP of 980Hpa its closer than it would be if the SLP was say 1010 Hpa. Living on the SE coast my chances of snowfall are probably less but convection is possibly enhanced due to proximity of the English Channel. Its a wait and see thing. I'm encouraged though to see that the chance of some snowy stuff is on offer during the course of the next week or so, including Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ! Loads to keep us occupied...what else can you do in tier 4 ? Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Forecasted New snow depth from GFS, 12Z

Evening. We virtually have cross model agreement now on a general pattern that introduces the initial cold incursion on Christmas Eve. Indeed Christmas Eve evening and early Christmas morning continue to offer some snow flurries to many eastern coastal counties of England and Scotland all the way down to ....yes, Kent ! Its a potent little blast this one, relative to recent standards with 521 dam, -8c (850s) and -3c (925s) at 00.00hrs on 25/12 here in Folkestone. ( I noticed a very slight kink on the 12z GFS over the low countries for this period, suggestive of a weak frontal or trough feature. A dusting first thing on the big day would make up somewhat for a torrid year for many. Thereafter we have the diving trough feature circa 27th onwards. Incredible agreement on the longevity of this one as well with 850's levelling out at -5 to -6 for several days. There is the continued signal for more of a NNE'ly flow towards New Year but that is way in FI and useful only for observational purposes at present. The iffy looking 850 Hpa's have been the subject of many discussions in recent days. It is my opinion that the precipitation around is going to swing the right of white rather than wet for various reasons. 1. Time of year, very little solar insulation. 2. Slack set up, we create our cold pool all the time we keep this synoptic set up. 3. Thicknesses are circa 520-525 for many for much of the week. (Easily supportive of snow). 4. Pressure is circa 980mb meaning that the '850Hpa' temperature is closer to the boundary layer 5. The airmass is unstable. Mesoscale trough features will only show up within 48 hours in most cases. 6. Our old friend evaporative cooling will play its hand due to a lack of mixing out breezes. Whatever happens its a fascinating set up and one that will keep forecasters and amateurs on their toes for the next couple of weeks. The ingredients are all there on the sideboard ready. They need to all be added to the bowl though to make this potentially quite a memorable one, not that this will be difficult for many of us snow starved SE Kent folk that somehow escaped the beast from the east back in late Feb / early March 2018. Cheers, Steve.

It's certainly something worth keeping an eye on. The ECM were showing a surprisingly cold NNE'ly flow on the 0z earlier and this received some support from a few of the GEFS ensembles and DE Bilt too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif The northern crank of the jet stream will no doubt topple the block pre new year but its encouraging that such a cold chunk of air can still move quickly south even in such a zonal and flat pattern. Should the SSW event propogate downwards and then manages to to shift the PV to Scandinavia in the longer term it will be an interesting start to 2012. Lots to keep an eye on at the moment.

Good afternoon from a grey and murky Folkestone. Please go easy on me as I'm a newbie to this forum. Currently Cloudy and considerably milder than it has been. 10.4c Relative humidity 96% Dewpoint 9.9c The earlier rain amounted to 4.0mm Pressure 1018.6mb Wind SW 2 mph.