Convective

Wow, some of these showers are really quite intense!

Wirralcam has some good scud on..

I am going to be in Liverpool tomorrow. What is the chance of me seeing anything thundery?

Oooh, nice tower going up quickly on the webcam in the bay. Can't tell whether its just a cumulus or a congestus with haze blocking the view of the bottom.. what do you think? http://www.dotet.co.uk/index.php?type=webcam&id=25

What are these congestus looking like at the moment? This kind of thing or wider?

Yup, north of Wolverhampton area is where I am keeping an eye on now!

It'll be interesting to see what comes of this. Good CAPE and LI and air temperatures well into the 20's! Lack of shear though so will most likely be isolated although I think a few could become pretty nasty!

Hey all, is there any chance of thunder today or even heavy showers today because I can see an anvil above the hills..?

Cracking short hail burst here! Lasted 1 minute? Very heavy but small hail, no lightning. The hail is showing up blue/ dark green on the radar

LOL! I love that article title!

Does anyone have any precipitation maps or lightning maps for Monday 11th May last year at about 1pm? Just looking at photos from a school event that was then and there are some amazing cloud structures in the background! CB's with great anvils! It was a really warm day too.

Great input! Thanks alot! Has now been updated!

I was really bored this morning so why not make a storm forecast? Here's mine, bearing in mind its rather amateur Anyway thought I would give it a shot based on the charts available on here. Lets see how it pans out and how mine compares to the professional forecast that should be issued later today or tomorrow. Here you go! A SLIGHT RISK was issued for Northern Ireland, Isle of Man, Southern Scotland, North West England and North East England mainly for convection that will initiate throughout the late morning/ early afternoon hours sparking heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms which may be accompanied by small hail and thunder and lightning. Some of these showers will continue accross the northern Irish Sea, allowing them to survive into where they may also be accompanied by small hail and thunder and lightning although due to lower lapse rates convection is likely to be more messy here. A LOW-SEVERE RISK was issued for parts of County Antrim, County Armagh and County Down where CAPE values are expected to exceed 600 - 700J/kg and LI expected to reach -3 in parts. During the end of the afternoon, the wind should of moderated and the air temperature should rise to 14°c or 15°c meaning any initiation of convection will be slow moving posing the risk of lying precipitation/ flash flooding. Showers here are expected to consist of small hail, heavy rain and thunder and lightning. Through both of these areas, overall shear will be low meaning any developments will be confined to single celluar structure rather than MCS.

Monday evening looks good? Medium CAPE and LI values and some good temperatures across much of the country plus by the time the afternoon comes round, the sun should be out in a few places to do its job in aiding convection!

Today has been sunny and windy here. A few sharp showers. Here's on that I managed to capture with my BlackBerry on the way to maths

Is it worth me taking a drive to see this or not, looks like its dying although the hills here could aid development?

A pretty good spread over Ireland now! Sferics from a lot of the showers!

Bring it on!

Too be honest, Monday is looking pretty good here. CAPE 300j/kg, -1LI, air temperature 6°c and dew point 5°c. Sun should be out by the afternoon aswell!

I have to go to bed to be up in the morning!

Keep it together! That storm here the other night was from nowhere out of your direction! Cracker it was! Wishing for a storm for us two!

It has the exact same feeling here as the other night with that storm. Same conditions aswell. 1020mb, 12°c, 69% Humidity (rising), a North Easterly at around 13mph aswell as an almost exact same overnight forecast. Possibly a second thunderstorm brewing?

I know, enormous amounts of everything I was just wondering roughly.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of air pressure are you looking at in say Houston for example when a storm kicks off?

To be honest, I aint too bothered about what the charts say after yesterdays amazing thunderstorm. Temperature 5.8°c and pressure 1021mb.. Nothing forecast but look what happened!