lightningst
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Posts posted by lightningst
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thanks for all the answers I understand now.it certainly is
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can i ask whats insane about it? as it dont look so its that cold over the uk in the chart you have posted.I had to post this run from one of the GEFS ensemble members, its just insane!
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Can you add me please
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The local paper as just posted this about salt levels that there have stored and the fact that there will run out if we have anything other then a mild winter . http://www.thisishullandeastriding.co.uk/East-Riding-gritters-prepared-mild-winter-report/story-17236518-detail/story.html?ito=email_newsletter_thisishullandeastriding
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I woke up at about half one and went to look at the heavy hailstorm I could hear and I saw it lighten once with loud rumble of thunder a second after so we had thunderhail!That means we have also seen the first thundersnow event of winter 2012/2013.
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We have some very small amounts of snow here in hull. It was mixed in with rain so was more wintery showers, but it was nice to see it as I was not expecting any with us been at sea level in hull
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I think this cold spell is been very overrated. The night time low for my area is 5c which means we wont even see a frost! i think the cold snap should be renamed colder snap!
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I did lolOh come on I'd bin this just for.....
Notable Singularities
25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))
24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))
21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))
lightning you beat me to it.
You just cant take them serious can you!
90% confidence for something happening in feburary i wonder what the forecasting method is crystal ball or tea leafs?
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oh dear to be honest I find there forecast laughable. Not because there don't forecast cold but the bit about the cold between 25th and 30th of December with 75% confidence. We are not to sure what next week or the week after that will do but they have 75% confidence in something that's more then two months away! Never mind the ones for January and February just a joke in my opinion.Just came across this, not sure if it's been mentioned.
Winter 2012 : Slightly Milder But Much Wetter than Average
After the cold winter of 2010 and average winter of 2011, the UK looks set to see a milder and wetter than average winter this year as ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific over the coming weeks.
UKMO, GEOS and JMA models suggest a warming trend across the Pacific over the next few months with the Arpege, ECMWF and CFSv2 expecting neutral conditions.
Our forecast is based on NCEP CFSv2 model which indicates temperatures close to or slightly above average for much of Western Europe with precipitation levels markedly higher than we would expect during the Winter months.
November 2012
Drier than average month with high pressure dominating the weather for the first half of the month. Return to more mobile conditions later. Average temperatures for much of UK with exception of Scotland where colder than average temperatures expected. Wetter than average for many areas.
December 2012
Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.
January 2013
Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.
February 2013
Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.
March 2013
Slightly wetter than average, especially across Western areas. Average temperatures.
Notable Singularities
25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))
24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))
21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))
Discussion
There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.
Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.
Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.
Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period.
This forecast will be updated December 1 2012.
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I want a summer just like the one we have had nothing over 25c and lots of thundery breakdowns
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Have any of the big name forecasters predicted a mild winter coming? or have there all gone for cold?
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as far as I can tell the well qualified in this forum have said we are still on for a cold winter, but some people are misunderstanding what people are saying and seeing bits of info and incorrectly using the info to say the winter is over! It's the middle of October no one can say either way with any certainty until the stratosphere shows its hand and that won't happen for another month yet.Am i correct in thinking that because of the current downbeat nature of most of the comments on here , that the winter forecast isn't looking as good as it was 2 or 3 days ago ?
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Heavy thundery showers are my favorite as it produces such large amounts of snow. frontal events because of where I am positioned always end up with 10% snow and the rest is sleet or rain which is a big let down.
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thank you for that I think I understand now lolI think you'll find this archived thread dedicated to the Feb 2009 streamer event very helpful - a lot of detail on the event and the synoptic setup
http://forum.netweat...-12nd-feb-2009/ -
still learning so can anyone tell me what a Thames streamer is? am guessing a lot of snow caused by been near a river. I live in Hull which is along the Humber is it possible to get them here what needs to happen to cause then and what are the effects?Thames streamer!!! Of course heavy showers are good too, frontal snow tends to have warm air behind it, or moves through quickly. But I will take anything. Can't be too fussed due to my location.
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epic coldNormal cold or Epic cold?
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my mums knees always hurt her when cold weather is on the way does that count?If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?
The ones I know of are;
1 - Laden berry bushes.
2 - More spiders than usual in the house.
3 - Field mice moving in early.
4 - Early bird migration.
Anyone know of any others?
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Yeah very true i used to be a bus driver for a uk bus company and we certainly had no bad weather training. There wasnt anything in place to advise drivers on daily conditions or anything to warn them if severe weather would effect the day. also when you see some car drivers and the way there drive in snowy conditions it just scares you off the roads hence why i dont drive for a living any more!I think its more to do with driver skills. Most people in this country just simply cannot drive properly. Face with snow/ice/wind/rain and the problem is even worse.
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I think the problem with our transport in the uk is there dont take forecast seriously am pretty sure in other countrys there will have plans in place for severe weather that are more rebust and better thought out. us in the uk only need a few flakes and everything grounds to halt which is going to need to change if our climate changes to a colder one with worse winters.I think in some ways we would cope better (more reliable heating, water and utilities) and in some ways we would cope worse (transport)
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Still snowing here very light now though. Bad day for the radars really!!!
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starting to settle now but needs to speed up a little to get a good covering
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Its about time as well, its been flirting with us all day...
it seems to have the knack of going around us its very frustrating living here
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Starting to get bigger flakes now in east hull...
and faster as well
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Sun out here now,, soooooooo frustraiting..
still cloudy and dull here in hull
Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread
in Regional
Posted
Looks to me from the charts that Hull will see a rain sleet snow mix hopefully I am wrong?