gaia rules

EML network you have said it far more eloquently than me. The great thing about today is that when the models have taken into account SSW, solar activity, the massive systems over the arctic, pacific and god knows where else it comes down to a little runt of a low pressure that cant make up its mind whether to go south or visit the UK.

The difference between the 12Z and 18Z all appear to hinge on the splitting of this low to the west of UK. It seems such a delicate balance. In fact a lot of the uncertainty of the ensembles over the past few days appeared to diverge from Saturday. Once it is split (18Z) with the low to the south we are all guns blazing. If it doesn't split (12Z) we have a vortex right over us and everyone gets depressed! It still seems too close to call!

Ensembles much more consistent and still the op and control leading the cold pack (initially!)

I've decided to expect the worst with a strong Azores high, zonal conditions with the cold air tickling the north before more murky Atlantic air swamps us back. Surely this wont really change until the New Year. Could the SSW really change things before then?

Am I right in thinking that the UKMO and NOGAPS go for the development of the central atlantic high which develops from the Azores and Greenland highs at about T144 whereas the ECM and GFS go for continued jet streaming across pushing back the Atlantic. The decision point appears around Christmas Day (assuming the world has not ended by then but none of the ensemble members have picked that yet....who knows though that even at T24 they are struggling!)

That's because there are no windows in the central forecast room!...I have worked there..... it could be a blizzard outside and they wouldn't know...they also have no more regional forecasters who were vital in bringing real weather observations and comment. My opinion is that forecasting still depends on experience + computers+ common sense. Sorry off topic well kind of off topic.

Although this is my 4th post (Horray) I have been watching models for 35 years. I have to say that this is the most confused I have seen them in years. I am now not even convinced that the timing of the breakdown from the Atlantic can be believed at only at T+90.

who said that it takes three attempts to bring on an Easterly....I wont survive the stress if this one fizzles out nearer the time

....and by T144 the 500mb chart shows the Scandavian upper high building again pushing the easterlies into Shetland....However that strong cold northerly blast from Eastern Canada needs to be switched off. Its giving the Atlantic too much energy.

OK my first post although been chart watching for 35 years and did work at Met Office. The Atlantic low seems to be disrupted in this later run with a weaker jet leading to the weird FI channel low and the heights are again falling from the north. With that Russian High and cold pool in the east moving closer again there is the hint of attempt number 2 of an easterly mid next week (10 days) . Although as everyone has said about this situation we really cant see beyond 120hrs and it takes at least 3 attempts for an easterly to arrive!