Dave Clarke
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Posts posted by Dave Clarke
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A few +Ve strikes tonight
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Some strong gusts and the occasional large drop of rain here in Beckton, E London
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7 minutes ago, Matty88 said:
My first venture into the storms forum this year.... the prospects of some storms have brought me back out!!
Although I can't say it's looking like a severe storm event with the current ingredients in play, it certainly looks like tonight could throw some lightning my way in Ely, Cambridgeshire. All eyes will be on this evenings developments high up - as others have said, 7-8pm onwards it should hopefully 'blow up' over the channel and head over the SE. Could even be later than 8pm until this happens.
It's severe due to possibly high rainfall rates
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Estofex has parts of se/cs under a lvl1 for excessive rainfall
European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX
WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG-
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New electrified cell to the west of Hereford
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Looks like Friday is the best day for London snow lovers
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Look on the 3rd page of this pdf file to show the classic life cycle of a Bjerknes type low http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/weather_disc/bjerknes.pdf
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The strongest gusts are where the low tightens up on it's sw edge, this is only in the extreme SW UK so far and is tracking ENE.
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Low has recently passed over Scilly Isles
http://scontent-a-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1377371_10152594802631494_1359656613_n.jpg
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The cloud here in E London was harder to shift with temps hovering around 11ºc until about 3pm when they climbed to approx 14ºc. Quite a way short of the forecasted 17ºc.
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The MCS is still clinging on with about 95 sflocs in 5 mins, it's at the northern French coast now, getting ready to dip it's toes in the Channel, just hope the lot from UK Border Force don't turn it back
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Whats that starting to show up in the english channel on the radar
Anaprop ahead of the MCS
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Next update, you lot didn't wish hard enough, the MCS is nodding off
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See my modified post attachment, and 5min sfloc hit. Rain will graze, but there'll probably be 1 or 2 sferics at best
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MCS in northern France dying off now folks, sferic intensity tailing off.
Add +1hr for BST
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One way or another every major weather outlet ramped this one
links?
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Paul Blight got it right this morning, as posted on our front end http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk
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It's all about forcing mechanisms, being in place at the right time with precipitable water, temperature, cold air aloft, and no dry cap for the moisture to convect up into. The models had trouble with a trough from the Canary Islands which brought the storms to the SW this morning, and they're having trouble with timing the other ingredients of thunderstorms.
It will rain in the SE tonight fact, whether it reaches the surface much is down to how high up the clouds are, and atm they're forecast likely to be high.
The forecasts are as right as you're all going to get, as *actual* weather doesn't follow models, the models play serious catchup on later runs re-modelling up to the point of current weather.
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Hot from the fingers of Brendan Jones on UKww
Bren JSferic appeared just north of Lyme Regis with cloud development there but, as yet no radar echoes.
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18z UKMO Meso (NAE) breaks out convective precip 00z through to 12z in the SE Quadrant, London, Home counties, maybe as far west as Berks, and everywhere south and east, as well as E Anglia.
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Does anyone know exactly where the cold front is currently lying,?? I cant really tell on the sat image or rain radar ??
Latest visible satrep from 15z showed it's position and forecast location at 00z
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Yep got you there Dave, we saw that only advisories were issued, but precip was forecast to be very heavy - only thinking the high PWAT values may have attributed to this?
Yes, and the PWAT is still there, it's the forcing which we're waiting for, which will be the initiating factor, and the yellow watch areas still stand. There is still a reasonable chance of convective activity between (imagine a triangle) IOW, SE Kent and the Wash.
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Hi guys,
My first post in here so please forgive me! Lol.
Myself and my FB forum partner ended up on top of the Chiltern Hills today with Paul Sherman and the BBC crew. Random meet up but when we saw TV cameras and asked what they were filming (plus they were looking at their laptops) it became clear that we had fallen upon the Netweather crew!
I can only see that today was a total CAP bust. I started the day sat East of Milton Keynes (where I live) looking at all the ingredients fall into place and seeing that it was going to be a good day.... but it all fell to pot! Obviously the delay in the cold front (or proceeding trough) didn't help with no forcing mechanism present but any other ideas as to why every forecasting agency got it wrong for the SE?
Wayne.
The UKMO only had a yellow advisory out for the SE, no actual warnings were issued.
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I've not changed my name ??
Supercells occur reasonably regularly in Europe and occasionally in the UK but they are quite tightly defined in their structure. They are not just big nasty storms
The cell over Northern France this afternoon/evening was a Supercell according to Keraunos
(you'll need to know French)
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
No, just a public one https://microsferics.com/index.php