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Will Padz

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Posts posted by Will Padz

    Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2012/004

    A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0740GMT on Thursday 28th June 2012

    Valid from/until: 0740 - 2000GMT on Thursday 28th June 2012, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

    Parts of (see map)

    Wales

    Midlands

    E Anglia

    N England

    Southern and central Scotland

    THREATS

    Tornadoes; hail to 40mm diameter; wind gusts to 65mph; Frequent CG lightning

    SYNOPSIS

    Plume of high theta-w air has advected across much of Britain overnight with a large upper trough approaching from the west. At the surface, a cold front will move north-eastwards through the day.

    Diffluent upper flow ahead of the trough is bringing forcing for ascent across portions of Wales already, and a number of thunderstorms have developed. At this stage they are likely marginally elevated above a coolish boundary layer, but strong cloud-layer shear suggests large hail to 20-30mm is possible with this early activity, with elevated supercells possible, with clusters of storms are likely. Gusty winds also possible.

    This activity is expected to continue to move NNE and NE through this morning. Although there is a fair amount of mid-level cloud associated with the widespread large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, enough diurnal heating of the boundary layer is expected to allow storms to become surface based as the cluster of storms moves through the Midlands into N England, and later, Scotland. With 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, well-organised multicells and embedded supercell structures are likely. 20-30mm diameter hail and gusts to 60mph are possible. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible.

    In the wake of this activity, and across the more south-eastern parts of the WATCH area, further thunderstorms are expected to develop and the move north-east, although these will be more isolated with south-eastern extent. Modified ascents for afternoon temperatures suggest around 1200-1800 J/Kg of SBCAPE. WIth 0-6km shear remaining around 40 knots, and perhaps increasing a little, well-organised multicells and isolated supercells seem possible. With 0-1km SREH of ~150 J/Kg and fairly low LCLS, a few tornadoes may develop with this activity. Indeed, should an isolated supercell develop in an area with decent surface heating, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Hail to 40mm or so and wind gusts to 65mph possible with supercells too; otherwise, 20-30mm hail and 55mph gusts. If this activity can develop into northern parts of England too, it may tend more towards a squall line, with an associated wind threat.

    The activity will end from the south-west through the afternoon and evening as the cold front moves in.

    Forecaster: RPK

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 18th 2012>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yeah, I used to sleep on a flat roof (don't ask) back in the nineties, warm muggy evenings watching distant lightning. Really miss that 'plume-like' humidity and being able to sit in the garden til late without a coat.

    edit, I should add that I didn't sleep on a roof because I was homeless or anything... for storm watching purposes only. Just clearing that up :D

    Good to know.... I know what you mean.... Hehe 😉

    Good to know.... I know what you mean.... Hehe ������

    😉

    Ok my icons not working..l. ;)

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 18th 2012>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just been doing the same, not often we get to enjoy these warm humid nights :)

    Exactly..... Doors open windows open wine open..... Mosquitoes thinking they can get the better of me..... Citronella candles on.... 22c dewpoint 18c..... Humid a humid a humid a..... Liking look of storms over Spain/biscay..... Mite head into northern France/Benelux by the look of trajectory though....

    Remember watching telly in back garden (swivel telly) with 27c at 11pm in mid 2000s.... Miss that....

    Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Will Padz

    That will be the C2C line again then? hahah!!

    That is amazing..... did you see the Moon last night by any chance?? look orange and massive at about midnight.

    Well looking at tomorrow, London and Harlow etc..., will get wiped off the face of the earth by tomorrow if this is correct.

    ukcapeli.png

    Might be good for a home grown MCS, but nothing on the import potential with a convergence wind through Southern England.

    Wednesday may be pretty good for a Bay of Biscay disturbance and by the looks of things the wind direction is perfect for a BOB/France Import. Someone with more knowledge on these things may be able to help but I remember a few years back, the Bay can be a nice piece of work for starting things off. With some fairly decent cape up till 2100/2200 (700-1200k/j)

    Not sure if things can get organised but there will be some pretty hefty storms, probably supercelluar characteristics with some cells getting up to FL400 (40,000ft+)

    ukcapeli.png

    Imin Paris going to Roland Garros

    That Lookslike we could get something juicy later on....blooming hot here at mo, was 28c earlier but very humid with temp still at 23c.....air on on full.....

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yesterday's satellite showed what looked like an explosion.....it's was pretty huge and gave hail over 4cm diameter and a ton of lightening.... Was quite impressive......any how it's now 18.6c outside..... Scorchio is today's watch word...... Making a Thai curry and mango chutney today so hopefully will be sitting outside this evening with an ice cold beer enjoying the warmth and humidity......enjoy everyone.....

    Thursday 24th May - Weather And General Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's 17.4c already risen a degree in 15 minutes..... BBC only have faversham with a high of 19c today, don't think tats correct.... Plus the sun has been out a lot earlier than last few days when it took until 10amish to show itself..... Reckon it is going to possibly reach 27/28c here today..... I know gfs has been overlooking thunderstorm potential but we may tweak something out today, looking at yesterday's nuclear implosion over Belgium/holland/ Germany.... The ingredients are there....

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Will Padz

    It's 17.4c already risen a degree in 15 minutes..... BBC only have faversham with a high of 19c today, don't think tats correct.... Plus the sun has been out a lot earlier than last few days when it took until 10amish to show itself..... Reckon it is going to possibly reach 27/28c here today..... I know gfs has been overlooking thunderstorm potential but we may tweak something out today, looking at yesterday's nuclear implosion over Belgium/holland/ Germany.... The ingredients are there....

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