Wiltshireweatherwatcher

I really do think this now warrants an amber warning across the central parts of our region. Road conditions out there are appalling. Absolutely pouring down here in North Wiltshire.

Isn’t looking a great warning is it? The weather system definitely behaving differently than forecast.

Hang on in there Leon, it’s running a bit later than originally forecast. My gosh the Met Office weather app/local page has chopped and changed all day. To think only a couple of days ago the forecast models had this going well into Northern England.

Ummmm...YES PLEASE BANK!

Thanks Steve. Thanks also for all your winter related posts in the MOD thread...we’ve finally got there, we’ll at least for a couple of days. Maybe something more later into Feb.

Great post by Catacol there. You can say what you like, today’s 16-30 is a blatant downgrade. Doesn’t mean it’s over for seeing a much colder spell of weather mid to late February but it’s looking less likely and has been for a few days now. I can see why the Met waited for the latest EC46 before making adjustments to the wording of the 16-30. Probably just to confirm their thoughts and what their own long range model GLOSEA was showing. Well I doubt we will forget this winter in a hurry..sadly probably for the wrong reasons! Lots for the experts to learn from once winter is over. Let’s see what Thursday into Friday brings us along with possible other opportunities in February.

Forget any snow of substance for our region today. Thursday is looking like our best chance for northern parts of our region but not without risk. We have UKMO model on board, though the text forecast isn’t great. Sounding like ECM like GFS has all the action further north. To conclude, we’re no clearer yet as to how Thursday is going to pan out. Expect Met to issue warnings later.

That’s my concern we end up with rain/wet snow in the evening and it freezes over. One thing you can be sure of, if we don’t get a yellow warning for snow, we’ll definitely get one for ice.

Oh they are...very. I will never post in there. It’s nice a friendly in here.

Oh I bet it has, that kicked off last evening.

They’ve revised warnings many times before so no reason why not again following models runs as it gets closer to the time for when the warning was issued.

Still time between now and Tuesday night for that to move West.

Well the ballon has gone up with the Met issuing their first yellow warning though for most of our region it’s not good news. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-30

The mood in the MOD thread has darkened somewhat following the early evening euphoria of the latest ECM run after the latest GFS run, latest UKMO Fax and BBC weather forecast has Tuesday’s low heading south. Lets wait until tomorrow before writing the channel lows obituary. Having said that I’m not feeling confident of seeing much from it come Tuesday.

Think I’ll wait for Exeter’s verdict. It is somewhat amusing that everyone is suddenly looking at the ICON model for answers. Probably only because the the GFS and UKMO models aren’t out yet.

That’s what I’m picking up too in the Model thread, though some are saying otherwise. As usual, one says one thing, another says another thing which is confusing.

IF Exeter have increased confidence after a couple more model runs that the Southern half of the UK will be affected by this upcoming system on Tuesday, I’m sure they will issue a yellow warning tomorrow. Could even possibly issue one tonight if all the forecast models were convincingly singing from the same hymn sheet. But I would expect tomorrow if it looks likely that it’s going to happen.

Great, thanks Leon. Looks good from the UKMO model and the latest GFS model run. Let’s see if the Met issue an early yellow warning before the weekend’s out if Exeter feels confident there is an increasing chance of disruptive snowfall Tuesday in Wednesday.

Where are you seeing this Leon?

Looking at the Met’s written forecast for our region this morning for Mon-Wed, no mention of a period of snowfall, just wintry showers and frost.

After watching the Met Office video about this weather system saying more of the individual runs of the UKMO model having the system heading further south along with the latest ECM run sadly doesn’t fill with me with much confidence. HOWEVER, Tuesday is along way off so this could and possibly will change.

That’s all we’ve been hearing about this winter, both here and elsewhere. Problem is the background signals do just that, stay in the background.

Oh yes, remember one very frustrating day of radar watching a band of pretty heavy and persistent snow coming down from the Northwest over Wales. It looked like it would soon arrive in our region only for it to stall over the Welsh mountains. Once Wales had rinsed it, it finally arrived after dark, just a few flakes! Polar maritime air masses rarely deliver the goods here; only in exceptional circumstances.

Think that’s probably our best chance of seeing any snow next week rather than from the front coming down from the North West. If only it was just that little bit colder we’d have been in the game. GFS still seems to think we are not that means much. No warnings not even for North of us from the Met so looking like a non event away from the hills.

If indeed it even arrives at all, hence the line ‘however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty.’ Been the story of this winter, but still plenty of time for it to change.