Wiltshireweatherwatcher

Yup, this is getting ridiculous now. It just doesn’t want to leave and yes as you say it’s not light rain or drizzle now.

Last saw the sun on Thursday morning. Looking a better day tomorrow as the rain finally clears away from our patch.

Mapantz has called it over on the Storms and Convective thread and I agree, not expecting anything other than rain for our region tonight. A classic Kent Clipper. As you say Mapantz, thoughts turn towards Friday that could bring us a better chance for our region.

Yup that’s what we’ve got here tapping away on the windows.

That’s been well watered down and backs up what the models are now showing. Interesting it’s taken a few days before the Met lessened down the chance of an easterly set up reestablishing itself. I think that’s pretty much it for our part of the world for this winter. Any further snowfall likely to be transient or confined to higher ground.

Yeah I have a feeling we’ll not forget this snow event as the one that never was despite what the radar was showing. I’ve seen radar images showing rain in the summer that hasn’t reached the ground because it’s so warm, but nothing like this in winter.

Looks to be pepping up a bit. Nothing falling here yet mind.

So sad to see all that precipitation having the life sucked out of it especially when you know tomorrow that won’t happen and the rain will reach the ground.

Great update, thx @AWD You could sure as bet that lot sitting to the west of us had it been rain forecast would have had nooooo problems crossing our entire region before fizzling out like what it will do tomorrow. Enjoy the last day of dry and cold or snow and cold folks.

Last minute upgrade! Met have expanded the yellow warning that just covered Wales down into parts of the South West so some of our region may see something more than a few flakes falling from the sky: UK weather warnings WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings. Let us know what you get, then send it to over to the rest of the region.

Looking at the latest forecast model runs it’s hard to see where the next cold snap is coming from, quite the opposite in fact. However, we know that could change a few model runs later, just hard to see that happening. I agree, it would nice to have it warm up, so long as it stays dry!

Yeah I think you can sum this cold snap up by saying we’ve been too far West then too far East. Maybe later this month has something in store for us.

Oh ICON, ICON! How could you!? To be fair we were all it expecting it at some point to fall into line with the other models. Yes AWD get the white flag out and ready for tomorrow morning. On the plus side remaining fairly dry. Even though we’ve not had snow, I’ve loved having dry weather again with some very pleasant spells of sunshine as well. Winter’s not over yet with the expectation of the colder weather returning. I’m not convinced myself but the pros still seem confident and they know more than I do.

I remember your posts about it at the time. Freezing rain, horrible stuff. Only ever experienced it once in my life and that was in the early 90s on a Saturday morning. Just walking to the local shop to buy a newspaper was a major ordeal clinging onto people’s fences just to stay upright. Everything covered in ice.

You can certainly see why there would be no need for a yellow warning for Saturday further south than Gloucestershire based on the 15z UKV. Snow yes, but not a lot.

I agree with you AWD. To be honest, not long after posting that I thought ‘what I did I post that for’ when of course it will be changed/refined as we get closer to the time, especially a warning issued four days out. Await the next ICON run with interest!

Met clearly not going for the ICON solution for Saturday. Warning issued Gloucestershire northwards and Wales. Be surprised if that changed. Think that’s our chance of a snow event before it gets mild gone.

It’s good to see that they do. After its consistency run after run is hard to ignore. Don’t they say you can’t go on just one model run, look for the trend and done just that. Don’t let us down now ICON!

Bless the ICON for wanting to give us a snowy Saturday and as you say it’s stood firm in its consistency.

The interesting thing to note on the last slide of the Fax chart you posted for Saturday 12hrs is the warm sector of that weather system is kept to the south of us so could see some snow across the region. The one behind it however looks like the one that will usher in something milder unless it to slides further south BUT Sunday is still along way off to be talking any detail.

I agree, it’s not a done deal that the milder Atlantic set up will win over the weekend and that’s how the pros see it. The next couple of days forecast model runs will be interesting to see if they flip back to a remaining colder set up.

First it was Thursday, then it was Friday, now it’s Saturday and marginal at that. The models are having a hard time pinning down who wins, the Atlantic or the Easterly.

Just skimmed through the latest ECM run. Looking rather dry to me. A huge welcome break from all the recent rainfall to give parts of the region a chance to dry out a bit. Friday’s potential snowfall looks to be really struggling to make inroads. Still a long way off for any forecast certainty.

Well yes, if an Amber warning has been issued for your area expectations are going to be high. See it’s been extended to lunchtime tomorrow so current thinking must be for the snow to continue for a good while yet so they mustn’t give up hope yet.

Yup, zip here in Westbury and 2.6c. Once the downgrades starting appearing on UKV yesterday afternoon I knew that’s all it would be. Perhaps we’ll see something later in the week.