Wiltshireweatherwatcher

I agree, it’s not a done deal that the milder Atlantic set up will win over the weekend and that’s how the pros see it. The next couple of days forecast model runs will be interesting to see if they flip back to a remaining colder set up.

First it was Thursday, then it was Friday, now it’s Saturday and marginal at that. The models are having a hard time pinning down who wins, the Atlantic or the Easterly.

Just skimmed through the latest ECM run. Looking rather dry to me. A huge welcome break from all the recent rainfall to give parts of the region a chance to dry out a bit. Friday’s potential snowfall looks to be really struggling to make inroads. Still a long way off for any forecast certainty.

Well yes, if an Amber warning has been issued for your area expectations are going to be high. See it’s been extended to lunchtime tomorrow so current thinking must be for the snow to continue for a good while yet so they mustn’t give up hope yet.

Yup, zip here in Westbury and 2.6c. Once the downgrades starting appearing on UKV yesterday afternoon I knew that’s all it would be. Perhaps we’ll see something later in the week.

Massively encouraged by the Met’s amber warning no less. Not that it needed that to produce the hysteria that has been going on. I’ve kept out of the MOD or MAD thread as it’s known these past couple of days as it just got too much in there. I feel for you moderators having the job of trying to keep order in there.

Indeed, plenty of eye candy at the end of week for our region from ECM. Normally I’d say oh it’s such a long way off, which it is, but there is support from other models for this outcome. So maybe our turn end of next week.

There was a time during winter when they used to have a separate Central Southern England thread around the time I joined this forum. Mapantz would be able to confirm when it was I suspect.

Well the Met updated the warning...shifting if further east! And adding an Amber for the SE as well. So yes I think we can safely say nothing to see here, a few flakes Sunday morning isn’t anything to get excited about. I’m not pinning my hopes on a snow to rain event next week either.

Agree, model consistency for me is enough to not expect any great amount of snow this time round. It’s a SE affair, one that we very rarely do well out of unless you have a screaming easterly to blow the precipitation this far west.

Great analysis @Singularity on the upcoming weather situation over the next few days. Thank you. I’m in no doubt that Met office warning will see further adjustments tomorrow and Saturday following further model runs either in our favour or not in our favour. I’d be highly surprised if it isn’t modified at least one more time. As for later next week, that’s a long way off to even begin to be pinning down when a weather system tries to make its way over our region and what it will bring. Let’s see what comes of later this weekend first.

Certainly isn’t. GFS wasn’t great either for our region.

Was just about the say that. Last week I set the GFS-P a test after it showed snow across our region on Saturday unlike other models that didn’t. It failed miserably but then so did other models that had nirvana for Wales and the Midlands. Instead, they had a day of watching it fall but not settle, just like we had last Sunday afternoon. So for me GFS-P is still a work in progress but it would be lovely if it were right for this weekend.

Completely off topic. I really do like your avatar and forum name. In honour of the great man.

Well if you look how far that warning came westwards from yesterday when it was just down the east coast, I think we stand a chance of further corrections nearer the time. At the moment two days seems to be a long time when it comes to forecast synoptics so we shall see.

If we were to go with the latest GFS 06z run it’s Stellas all round for the SW on Sunday. But it’s the GFS

Close, but no cigar...yet! Hoping for some westward corrections between now and Saturday, but getting anything out of an easterly set up like this is in our part of the world can be asking a lot. The Met office taking some tap on Twitter for saying this is a Warning for the SW. Don’t you just love automation!

Heavy snow here in Westbury but dp going the wrong way Can understand how those in the Midlands felt yesterday watching it come down but do nothing. What a waste.

I see the Met have finally cancelled the nigh on pointless weather warning two hours before it was due to end. Should have been cancelled this morning IMO.

BONUS We have sunshine! Precipitation over Worcestershire has really picked up. Be interested to hear from anyone in the area as to what is currently falling.

Well I’m glad we didn’t have a warning for snow over the southern part of our region after a quick jog round the regionals this morning along with looking at the latest radar. Nothing much happening so looking increasingly like a bust. Not looking good for those under a yellow warning next Mon-Wed either. Fully expect the Met to either scale back or remove that large yellow warning. Edit: Just after posting this saw that the Met have indeed scaled back the Mon-Wed yellow warning to further north removing its southern extent and to Tuesday only.

I believe he is.

If you thought it was bad then, it’s even worse now thanks to a stonking sorry I mean stinking run from ECM.

Yes well that aged well. Lesson learned folks, I apologise for posting a good looking chart for snow earlier in the week for our region. Won’t do that again ?

The sooner this current weather set up ends the better. Signs are that is going to happen next month. Just been posted in MOD thread UKV is a little further South as well.