There's a storm a coming

In summary today, I think we've all,agreed and admitted to ourselves that the cold spell showed a few days ago is well and truly gone, and we won't be led down that "garden path" again. However the ECM and the UKMO are now looking for the next trends while the GFS has found one and its running with it........all the way back up the garden path lets see what tomorrow brings tasac

At least the last 4 GFS runs have started to move the higher pressure away from Europe. That's at least something..... They also keep dragging the high westwards each time across the Atlantic. This time it's merging with the one over by Newfoundland. Which in turn should keep the jet on a more se heading tasac

Ironic really as it was the Azores low this week that's been the pain and scuppered the cold spell

That's one large high pressure belt on the GFS at 180hrs it runs from Eastern Europe through us and well out into the Atlantic. There just seems no way to break it down at the moment. However the GFS does seem to be following its other outputs of today into FI as it try's to drop the low pressures into Europe and we get colder nw winds. Just like what the ECM would go on to show if it went into "la la land" tasac

I think the GFS is going to follow the last couple of it's outputs in its FI. It seems to want to follow all of today's talk about the high pressure moving west and the lows filling over Europe...could be a cold outcome for us tasac

Looks like the GFS has got a sniff of a pattern change and won't let it go...jet looking to move more from NW to SE and hopefully it can shift the "pesky" high pressure over europe tasac

Well now we have all the 12z models and most of the ensembles to look over I think a few things stand out as a few have already said is....1.the weather is going to be dry ( which if it continues could get worrying long term after quite a few dry months in the 2nd half of the year) 2. It's going to be cold with frosts and fog (where cloud breaks) 3. Its a lot better than the last few years wind,storms,rain and floods. And finally when there is such a large pool of cold air just to our east there is always a chance "the dice could roll in our favour" and a much colder outlook could occur. I think we should keep our eyes on the 2nd or 3rd week of Jan for that possibility happy new year to you tasac

I remember fergie from the met office saying a few weeks back that the longer term ideas were for a large high pressure to be just to west of us and " wo and behold" there it is. We really need to take notice more of the snippets we get from him as the majority of the time they are pretty close when looking long term tasac

Haha. "Back to square one then", tasac

To my eyes the UKMO 144hrs is almost the same as the ECM 144hrs...that's good enough for me going forward at least we have some consistency between the top 2 models. Let's see what "trends " follow with the ECM for the rest of its output tasac

Completely agree lets see what is forecast to happen in next 6 days before looking further ahead especially in these " uncertain times" tasac

If the GFS has seen a new trend and the Atlantic comes back into play....you never know once it hits the block to our east it could split the jet stream and a low pressure could slip underneath...and that could be the trigger! tasac

It is.....but all we need is a " trigger" and it could come our way tasac

With 2 of the top models 12z out. (UKMO & GFS) They show a slightly better outlook up to 144hrs. If it's cold your looking for. Let's see what the ECM comes up with later. I think it will follow the same route as this morning up to 144hrs and then the "odds on favourite" after that would be for the high pressure to be over the uk bringing further frosts and fog tasac

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to move back towards the ecm at around 144hrs - 168 hrs but it wants to strengthen the northern arm of the jet stream which eventually pushes the high pressure block over us and into Europe flooding southern and southeastern Europe with very cold air. But that is some large high pressure block....you never know it could stay further north and "bobs your uncle" tasac

I think the UKMO 144hrs is not a million miles away from this mornings ecm at 144hrs. I think that low to the north will dive south east and bring a northwest/northerly wind to us as the high over us moves west and then eventually and slowly back to be over us just as the ecm frames 168 hrs onwards show. Still a possible tweaking and a more northeasterly at day 10 tasac

Hi all. I've been reading this great forum for over 5 years and been interested in the weather for many, many more. The knowledge I have gained from the great and informative posts on here has been great. Hats off to you all. I thought I would finally add a comment as it must be what we are all thinking......wouldn't it be ironic that a n Azores low scuppers our chances of a cold spell when it's usually the Azores high! Tasac.