Dan the Man

Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but apparently there was a "mini" tornado in Barton-le-Clay today?

The general trend last winter was that it was a huge BOOM around 5 days and gradually downgraded each day, until they massively upgraded again about 24-36 hours out. Anecdotal evidence anyway.

EGGW 280640Z 2806/2906 22025G40KT 9999 BKN012 BECMG 2806/2809 SCT025 TEMPO 2806/2810 23035G50KT 4000 +RA BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 2806/2810 25045G70KT

Wind really has picked up in the last 10-15 minutes

That squall line seems to be passing MK at the moment, although it seems to be lessening in strength.

Has the MetO site crashed?

Bedford to Brighton line also suspended overnight and will reopen when "it is safe to do so", probably after 9am. Network Rail advise.

K1 buoy down to 990mb. Fallen 5mb in the last two hours. Any benchmarks - ie. where the storm was expected to be at?

Still on a knife edge this storm - one small tweak in the path of say 100-200 miles either way could swing it either way. If it backs north, a lot more people will see the severe gusts.

My local TAF: EGGW 271100Z 2712/2812 23020KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 2712/2717 24025G35KT 7000 SHRA BECMG 2720/2723 19015KT 5000 RA TEMPO 2723/2803 3000 +RA BKN007 BECMG 2800/2802 21020G30KT BECMG 2802/2804 21027G40KT 9999 NSW PROB40 TEMPO 2803/2805 21033G50KT BECMG 2805/2807 24033G50KT PROB40 TEMPO 2806/2808 24038G60KT 6000 SHRA BECMG 2807/2810 24020G30KT PROB30 TEMPO 2807/2812 7000 SHRA

If this does turn into a damp squib, surely the credibility of the technology need to be questioned. The scientists need to have a rethink. How many times in the last few years have we seen "mega" models, only to be massively downgraded close to the event. Yes, I know its extremely difficult to predict a weather system that hasn't formed and obviously the UK is one of the most difficult parts of the world to forecast, but even so, the amount of money spent on the computers surely should return better. That said, its one minor blip which totally goes against the grain. The 06Z and 12Z should give us a far better idea.

Definition of Met Office weather warnings for wind: RED: Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.Risk to personal safety from flying debris.Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees. AMBER: More widespread tree damage & other debris, slates etc dislodged from roofs.Some minor structural damage possible.Risk of injury from flying debris.BE PREPARED for some travel disruption e.g. closed bridges.Potential for some localised interruptions to power.

Jet stream + unseasonably mild weather + wind shear + low pressure system.

"Significant Tornado Parameter" - sounds like a silly question, but what does this mean? Showing the Benelux and East of England in black 50>. Does this mean the chances of a significant tornado within a point, are 50% or above? The ingredients are there; could be one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK possibly on Monday?

Actually the depression has just started forming around the Bermuda area. Flying across the North Atlantic as we speak.

Look at that "black spot" just north of the Channel Islands! Goodness me.

... are we allowed to call the chart 'THAT' ECM yet?

1 in 25 year event this storm?

Identical positioning, however looks far deeper than the 06Z. Major upgrade - getting worse by the hour.

Without looking at the charts this morning, watching the BBC weather this morning, they seem to be going with the 'worst case scenario' track still.

Transportation impacts seem inevitable. Expecting 10s-100s of flights to be cancelled at the London airports (35kts max gust for an aircraft movement). Plus wind shear must be an issue for any lull in the gusts.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/ Just come across this. Interesting reading.

IIRC Katrina was 949 or 959; something like that? Edit: Katrina was 903mb. Just proves how severe/devastating that storm was in comparison.

Shift slightly further south than the original Humberside prediction for the centre of the low? Now going across N Norfolk

Carol Kirkwood this morning already talking about Monday's potential. "Gales, severe gales or possibly something a bit stronger than that". Met Office looking to firm up the forecast in the next few days - track could be up the Bristol Channel towards Humberside, through the English channel or into France.