Dan the Man

First rumbles heard here not far from EGGW.* *Although that could just be an A320 taking off.

So, how severe would you expect these thunderstorms to be (apologies I'm a bit of an amateur with this sort of thing!) Looking at the synoptic charts, am I right in thinking that occlusion in the middle of the week, meeting the hot air from the east, looks perfect for severe thunderstorm potential? On the same sort of scale as last June during Wimbledon?

Am I reading this correctly - some locations in the Midwest reporting TORCON ratings of 90%?! Blimey that is exceptionally dangerous. Imagine that sort of thing over here - how much chaos would insue.

TOR:CON Indices for the next few days... Friday April 13 OK southwest, west, north-central - 4 KS south-central - 4 Friday Night April 13 OK north - 5 KS southeast, south-central - 5 Saturday April 14 IA northwest - 4 IA southwest - 4 to 5 IA rest - 3 to 4 IL northwest - 3 KS south-central - 7 KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6 MN southwest - 4 MN southeast - 3 MO north - 4 NE southeast - 5 NE northeast - 4 to 5 OK northwest, north-central - 7 OK southwest - 5 SD southeast - 4 TX east panhandle - 5 WI southwest -3 Other areas - less than 2 Saturday Night April 14 IA west - 5 KS south-central, east - 6 OK north, central, west - 6 MN southwest - 5 MO northwest - 4 NE east - 5 TX north-central - 5 Sunday April 15 AR northwest - 4 IA east - 6 IL northwest - 4 KS southeast - 4 MN southeast -6 MN south - 4 MO - 4 OK southeast - 4 TX northeast - 4 Oklahoma and Kansas the place to be for chasers. Extremely dangerous few days coming up.

The Green Bay/Chicago area this week will be 43F ABOVE AVERAGE - that is simply incredible, even for America's crazy weather. Chicago 86F this week; 7th consecutive day of record heat - the all time record (was) in the mid-70s. Records smashed to pieces!

I'm heading to the "Valley of the Sun" at the weekend and supposed to head up to Flagstaff on the Sunday. Temperatures could hit 90F on Saturday. Tornado watches in force across the Deep South. Moderate TOR:CON ratings.

Due to the fact that the LHR-PHX route is the only international route; European's will be transfering onto these flights, I gather its one of the busiest routes in terms of load factor, meaning prices will be sky high. I'd suggest going to DFW and get a flight on AA, UA, DL or US or transfer to Dallas LF and get on one of the many SW flights. May I suggest for those going to Phoenix; if you're looking for a couple of good restaurants - Rustlers' Rooste is very popular steakhouse and you'd need a reservation (try the rattlesnake) and Monti's la Casa Vieja did a superb porterhouse, both in the Tempe area.

I'm heading to the deserts of the West coast next weekend - having a look at the forecasts. Some ridiculous numbers being forecast - in the Northern states, some locations will be reporting temperatures FORTY degrees fahrenheit above average, into the mid-80s! Chicago 32F above average this weekend.

A months worth of tornadoes in ONE DAY! According to The Weather Channel. Truly horrifying. This could easily outdo last seasons huge tornado outbreaks. Went to Atlanta last April - no tornadoes, but some severe thunderstorms and high winds. Remember switching on TWC following the storms. Tornado watch in force and we still decided to go out for dinner! Came out about 10pm and the roads were almost deserted - thinking what the hell is going on!? Constantly looking upwards to see if there was any rotation; the rain pouring down and some really strong gusts. Was pretty scary I must say, but no tornadoes where we were. Remember switching the laptop on the next day, and the storms had been all over the BBC news. Phew!

So that snow will come on Thursday then!

Errr I went out this evening at 5.30pm; watched the 5pm forecast on the BBC News Channel - completely nothing in the Three Counties nor London region. What the hell happened? Abysmal forecasting.

Probably a stupid question, but if this was the setup in July - how hot would it be?

Carol K on BBC just said there is potential for significant snowfall across the Midlands and possibly further South as well as Wales on Thursday night going into Friday. Possible 20cm. Where did this come from?!

Some of the pressure readings this week in Eastern Europe/Northern Russia would've gone past that UK record probably?

What are the prospects of another snow event in the coming days for the SE?

Where is the best place to measure, would you all say? Garden table? Pavement outside? Been quite a lot of drifting here in Bedfordshire (around 550ft amsl) so could be several different numbers.

Looks like Staffordshire, Birmingham, Wolves area is getting a battering at the moment.

Sleet here in Bedfordshire.

Any potential for further, significant snow later this week?

Anyone think there could be a chance of a red, emergency warning, like December 2010 in some parts? Similar amounts of expected snow depth.

I've just worked out I've confused the numbers on there for inches, rather than cm!

Did think there was an underestimation of snow depths by the MetO et al. The 1ft mark could be broken in several locations in the East Midlands, Home Counties and East Anglia.

Known as the Campaign Against Aviation for a reason. Nobody who can't read them wouldn't use them anyway.

Not doing all of them... LCY (London City - Central London) LONDON/CITY EGLC 041115Z 0412/0421 17010KT 8000 OVC010 TEMPO 0413/0418 9999 BKN015 BECMG 0418/0421 2000 -SN BKN004 PROB30 0420/0421 17015G25KT 0600 +SN OVC001 LONDON/CITY EGLC LCY Forecast submitted at 1115Z (Zulu Time/GMT/UTC) on 4th Feb 2012 Forecast valid from 1200Z until 2100Z Wind from heading 170 (NNW) at 10 knots Visibility 8km, Overcast at 1,000ft cloud ceiling Weather temporarily between 1300Z and 1800Z - Unlimited visbility, broken cloud at 1,500ft (around 2-3 oktas) Becoming between 1800Z and 2100Z - Visibility 2km, light snow and broken cloud at 400ft, probability 30% (moderate risk) Between 2100Z and 2200Z, wind at heading 170 (NNW), primarily 15kts, gusting 25 knots, 600m visibility (poor), heavy snow and overcast at 100ft cloud ceiling.