Allseasons-Si

-8's flooding SW AT 168.

No bowling ball on the latest ecm at 120 v144 from this morning,i know it's 24hrs difference but nowt we can do about that.

Well with all the blocking going on punching the pv,something has to give.

It could verify,no s**t two scenario's i have seen from across the board is that we get a northerly/northeasterly with ridge building behind=cold or we could see the trough to our west throwing a ridge into Scandi=cold a win win situation,well i hope.

Hi the hunt for cold gang i have done a Nick Sussex van gogh squiggle of the NH view from the latest cpc 8-14 day 500mb outlook,ok i know it's a mean anomoly but you get the gist, just look at all the northern hemisphere blocking+ve height's over the pole and all the -ve heights over the mid latatudes,the purple arrows indicative of -AO reversal and the black arrows roughly where the PJF(polar jet front)is the NAO/AO still tanking negative but look at the AO in particular av around -4 with a couple going off the scale lets have a look at the De-Built ens(temps,dewpoints and wind direction) and clearly there are uncertainties early on esp the dewpoints and wind direction.

I wished i could give you more than one like/thanks great read and simple to understand,thanks

Lets hope it's no more than that got none left on the tree lol

Right! off to dream about lottery balls i mean snowballs Gobsmacking FL from gfs,but it's only a dream chart at the mo. night all,

Gfs stop teasing us now,you did that last week!!!

The gfs is not quiet there but it is a step in the right direction just like the ecm,more troughing to our NE on the run and the trough disrupting SE,what model watching this is right now.

View it here or on our own netweather charts http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

The models are like a lottery at the minute and we are still looking for that jackpot,ok it's only mid November but i want an early taste instead of a backend winter the 18z starting to trickle out now will it follow the 12z? or are we going to see charts like.... what i have noticed though that this low to our west has gradually being modelled further south the past few runs but i have a squeaky bum at the minute,but my eyes are seeing more blocking signals to our NW with trough extension to our SW,this really is a fine balance from the SW v's NE.

Isn't that yesterday's run as the site is having technicalities? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=264 or are you viewing them elsewhere?

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Hi Brabro here is a link from wiki,i hope that helps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occluded_front and welcome to the forum.

BINGO!!! slack easterly winds at 240,somewhere will get a dumping.

Battleground scenario coming up at 240 i would think.

That low is further SE than this morning,plus the pressure is higher over Greenland,as steve says it prob get squashed,elongated.

At least the gefs ens are better than earlier(posted them on prev page) let's not jump to conclusions and see what the next few days has in store,hopefully they will flip to cold again.

I think uncertainty is the word i would describe that,same from the de-built,i think shannon is paying a visit.

That's better,most of the mild members at the end are gone compared to the earlier sets

The control at the end is not bad either as long as we keep on seeing these amplified patterns then there is nothing to worry about the NAO/AO is still tanking neg this will keep the pv on the ropes/displaced and the atlantic dead i mean...look at this there are segments all over the shop.

I really want this to verify to blow the rest of the leaves off the trees to make it look more seasonal

WHOAH!!!

This is good news on to the gfs and the the pattern has backtracked further west,-6's coming in off the north sea at 180 watch you don't get frost bite cpc still good too.