Allseasons-Si

BIG LOL!!! seriously,absolutley cracking 12z runs from the big guns

Look at that ridge in the atlantic pumping northwards into greenland at 180hrs to coinside with that low to the eastern side of greenland,who's to say that low will head on a colishion course,uk anyone.

Hi matty,are you ref to that short wave south of the block in scandi,it looks more better orientated to me for that westerly push to the uk.

and at 168hrs the -10 isothern encroaching the east of the country /

also not much of a shortwave/trough left in the atlantic.

Well the 18z is so diferent even at 78hrs, 1,more vertical WAA from the trough in the atlantic 2,a stronger ridge biulding(alltough not much) and 3,whats happened to the dartboard greenland HP that was on the 12z,on the 18z it's very flabby,don't know if this is a good thing though.

thank's guys sorry for the belated reply(s),had to do tea and nip out for some seasonal drinks lol, but just to say,isn't this a great evolution unfolding at the moment,and with the strat on our side it's looking a bit more plausable Si edit:not getting my hopes up yet though as things can go t*t's up,as did begining of december.

nice one steve,do you think it will verify like that or do we need more runs. cheers Si

don't forget the jma too CS . Edit:oh and the BOM too.

yes rollercoaster,gfs having a big wobble on the 12z,i await the 18z to see if it comes onboard again,gfs on it's own at the moment.

WOW! cracking ecm 12z,reload from the NE anyone.

Hi Staffordshire i think it's because they have a greater landmass to aid convection from and no hills and mountains to break up/weeken the systems where as we have the spine of the country with such that break up or weaken them plus we are a tiny island with not much land mass i think that's about right but some eperienced folk could do a better job at explaining,good question though.

Evening all @150HRS the trough out of newfoundland is some 2 to 300 miles further west on the 18z than the 12z plus more ridging up into greenland 18z 12z EDIT:at 177hrs there is i think more WAA and the trough digging further south too,looks good to me.

@168 we have the e/seaboard low some 200 to 300 miles NW on this run compared to the 12z + more WAA Si

sorry for confusing mods,but i was refering i.e to the low following that one @ a later timeframe at t+132 onwards,and looks a bit better on the 18z

Look at that low deflate and undercut out of the e/seaboard at +117 don't know if that is a good thing though. Si

I seem to recall that someone(cannot remember who it was)was saying look west for our weather,now at t+90 there is more amplification off the eatern seaboard than the 12z,now i don't know if it was about this scenario but keep your eye on it Si

Hi phill theres one thing that i have noticed over the last few days of model watching is that the lows have tended to track more of a SE shift than was progged to go barraging through the BI,the block to the east,and some hights to the north have done enough as far as i can see,and i feel there will be more of this to come,the point that OMM was stating earlier regarding that second trough out of the e'n seaboard,that's what we should be looking at as to amplify a ridge into greenland,that would open the door to the siberian flood gates Si

YES!!!

ok,here is my take on the 18z gfs @+156 at face value,please feel free to correct me as i am still learning i have circled areas of interest,we have more amplification off the eastern seaboard generating more of a ridge in the atlantic,more hights over greenland forcing the trough futher south,a more southerly flow from the east from the siberian high,and i suspect that that low will dip SE as arrowed,all speculation at this moment of cause,lets see Si EDIT,scrap this that i just posted,i have just run forward the frames,but it could be a good idea. P.s fi till we get past this weekend.

I have saved that 120hrs fax chart for investigation to see if it verifies,obviousley there will be minor changes in trothes(sos for the spelling lol),but the overall looks good.

That chart is a beauty,i will sleep tonight,altough i wasn't worried anyway with the background signals,goodnight peeps.

Is that part of the pv in siberia showing allready at 189hrs,it wasn't there on the 12z.

That shortwave sw of the BI looks like undercutting to me,that will draw in a stronger easterly.

I think the high pressure is better oriented on this run than the 12z and also there is a bigger swaithe of colder uppers NE of BI,looks good to me.