Allseasons-Si

but seriously,...i hope the other 12z follow the ICON,it was sensational to watch it unfold may the force be with us

The difference is huge here,...for the better,...great start to the 12z

Clean as a whistle this run ICON 12z v's 00z

It is just one run and one run that i am commenting on,the low/trough is further south on this run regardless of height's to our NE,we are still in cold air by a marked trough to our NE driving the pattern and what ever encroaches us from the west SW hitting the cold air will have a battleground scenario written all over it we may well not hold the pattern for long but at least we have a chance of seeing some snow somewhere over the UK in this period,...where is yet to be decided high risk high reward.

It doesn't matter as long as we have cold over the Uk whilst troughs/lows slide E/SE ,would keep us in the game the cold is further south on this run too.

The gfs moves the SW low into a better slider territory,...slide it further east as the 18z show would keep us in with the colder game 18z v's 12z.

Just a quick one whilst Man utd are at half time this is good going forward to get us out of a quick unfavourable position to race round to more of a favourable position latest CPC however kepping in with the blocking theme to our NW,i am still happy with that

EPS mean from 144... 216 v's 240 00z,...oh yes.

Brilliant ECM,...very cold with disturbancies in the flow... sorry for the quick post as i am doing dinner.

Last one from me tonight as i am pushing it for 5am tomorrow the mean at 192 is a sniff better than the 12z...

My deep dive of today allbeit short GN you happy bunch onwards and upwards in terms of upgrades tomorrow.

On a frozen bench but in all seriousness i do hope that the gefs ens follows the op a disturbance running N>S on this run,...a polar low?

Upgrades all round today and the 18z just tips it,...good old pub classic.

How many runs have we watched this count down? and now within touching distance because broadly speaking the output has been very good since the sniff of all this the two ingredients,...height's into Greenland and trough from the north,...it has been marked out for some time now.

This is nice if i am honest

It is embedded in arctic airmass and formed off the south coast of Iceland and pushes S/SE,i would class that as a polar low anyway,let's move on from this now and i do hope some crop up in the unstable airflow

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me a snippet from John holmes:- Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5000247

OK i know i started the polar low story from the Ec control but let's not go down the polar low history Not much in the ICON IMO but the one thing i see is a more squashed neg tilted low in the Atlantic allowing heights to migrate west better.

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me a snippet from John holmes:- Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

All academic this far out but i would suspect frontal snow as it hits the cold air in place with a slightly milder sector in the core then colder poss back edge snow and snow showers after but it's origins are from the N/NW so could be an all snow maker

Ec control throws a polar low in the mix

The CPC is still rock solid

EPS mean from 168,...not bad...

Here is the NAVGEM at 180 @Mark wheeler another good looking chart.

Here you go Mark https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0 had to edit as that link was not working.