weather09

Might be a warmer spell here and there - 17-18C for Leeds now and then. Cloud amounts variable. Birmingham hot and sunny though. Better down here.

Yep, much fresher and cloudier conditions - typical UK weather. Generally temps around 13C with limited sushine typical British summer, particularly around northern England, where it might be even cooler.

Has felt extremely oppressive so far this summer. Florida-style humidity. Dewpoint 13C currently. Feel like I'm in a warm sponge. Unbearable.

Guess it depends on the depth of one's interest in convective storms (or meteorology in general) but I would advise others to read up more on how storms develop, that way you can have a look at the models outputs ahead of a period of interest to gauge the likelihood of storms developing, and if they develop how intense they could be. You could have a go at forecasting, or even just give a view based on what the model outputs are showing. Think it's something that would improve this part of the forum greatly, and perhaps save disappointment when little happens for one's location.

Nothing over the top about today's forecasts. But there's something decidedly over the top about your weather observations and expectations ahead of storm risk days. Might want to dial down a tad?

Yeah, bit of a bust for your area. "LOL"..

Hail formation is more tied to how much CAPE there is and/or how steep lapse rates are in the mid-levels, where more CAPE means potential for strong updraft speeds and likelihood of keeping hail suspended aloft for any length of time. ELTs will give you possible cloud top height, and a tall storm is more likely to have some hail associated with it, but there are factors that can inhibited hail formation and it reaching the ground. Instability, moisture and shear the three main factors to look at when gauging storm severity and all hazards they may pose.

Looks like it may be a bit of a late starter tomorrow as instability and drier air at mid-level comes in post-occlusion, with associated dynamic rain and cloud debris moving over country morning/early afternoon. Lapse rates a little steeper on 12z which has enhanced modeled CAPE. Though if residual cloud sticks around for any length of time, CAPE not likely to be quite as high as is being modeled. Might be an overlap of upper jet/modest shear and instability toward far south and west, perhaps something to work with. Question mark over instability and coverage of storms though.

Indeed, try to be optimistic myself and hope for big dirty thunderstorms all over the Midlands, where no-one misses out. Ones with big CG bolts dropping all around producing ground-shaking thunder. Think the Met Office are playing it down, to be honest. Could be looking at some severe storms over next day or two. Here's hoping, Gordon.

Activity nudged south as expected, but not as much lightning compared to the storms further north earlier this afternoon. Still, got a couple of overhead strikes and a torrential downpour. Good news is we look to have a storm risk day each day from now until possibly back end of next week. Doesn't get more interesting until next week as upper cold pool moves over the country, leading to a rather unstable environment with strong June sunshine. Not the most ideal setup, but certainly looks like an active period coming up.

They can pick up any strike, but can miss high-based cloud-to-cloud/intra-cloud strikes moreso than cloud-to-ground.

Aye, a quick glance at the radar one would like to think it won't be long before the 'dead zone' across the central Mids is no more. Here's hoping.

Also worth noting that the CZ is expected to slide a touch south as over the next few hours, so where storm development is tied to this zone can expect storms further south late afternoon/evening.

It's wherever the instability and forcing is, Gord. Today looks like it's playing out as expected, with storms having fired near marked convergence zone over N Mid/N England which is where moisture and instability is pooled. Nothing in the storm handbook that says there be a 'dead zone'.

Looks like a downpour occured recently back at home looking at radar. Can see darkened skies over in that direction from here in city. Quite humid today - dewpoint at 16C currently. Was 18C after Wednesday's deluge. Felt tropical indeed.

Nice to see day on day potential for perhaps week or so as we retain decent moisture at the surface with increasingly cool mid-levels going into next week, as upper trough over Atlantic moves over UK. Bit unusual to see GFS model relatively high CAPE in what would be a post-front, maritime air mass environment. Though with it being June and solar input really high, combined with cold air aloft, recipe for some moderate or even strong storms despite the likelihood of very weak shear aloft as winds look to remain light at mid-upper levels. Still drying off from Wednesday's storm which left parts of my region under a few feet of water. Can expect more of this for parts of the UK given synoptic pattern for the foreseeable.

No, wasn't directed at you. But this is a recurring theme every year: some being critical of one's views or forecasts without accurately capturing what has actually been said, and not even providing reasoning of their own to form a counter argument if they don't agree with that view or forecast. One can say there looks to be a somewhat heightened risk of storms in relation to the previous day, and some will read that as 'showers and storms very likely and numerous', then say the forecast was 'hyped up' when very little happens.

And this is what is being forecast: scattered showers/storms. Only difference is a slightly heightened risk given reasons stated. Some appear to have a hard time reading.

Who has said "..tomorrow looks to be a lot better", Ben? Not sure who you are referring to, but, speaking for myself, I don't do hope when trying to gauge likelihood of storms occurring. I look at the data that's available to me and form an opinion. Today does indeed look like it will have a little more in the way of showers and storms, despite the unfavourable pattern aloft, where good instability is situated over places of good elevation, and with defined sea-breeze and land CZs setting up to attempt to release this potential energy. If you don't see any difference in today's risk on yesterday's, or tomorrow's on today's, provide your reasoning as to why you think that is so.

Looks like tomorrow will see more in the way of scattered showers and storms, despite still being under a relatively weak upper ridge. Again, activity will be tied mainly to areas of light, converging low-level winds and increased elevation. Main areas of interest look to be SW, Wales, N England, parts of Scotland (with perhaps a bias toward the western half of these regions where sea-breeze convergence set ups a little way inland), and NI. Several 100J/kg MLCAPE likely to build with heating of sufficiently moist air mass (dewpoints to mid-teens), so increased likelihood of some active storms where this instability is utilised.

Good luck, Supa. Reliability of something firing (showers have already formed, in fact) and shorter distance makes far NW the better option. Timing of any developments toward south/SW likely to be from late afternoon and during evening hours, and with the isolated nature of any storms, doesn't seem worth it. Decent obs so far over latter region- temps generally around 21-22C; dewpoints mid-teens (doubt they'll reach GFS' upper teen progs). Few more hours of good sfc heating though should build CAPE. Just a waiting game to see if CZs can get something to fire.

Worth reminding that we are situated under ridging aloft and general atmospheric subsidence (sinking air), with no forcing at that level. However in this case it's not an overly stout ridge and can be more than countered by strong heating and lift by low-level convergence. But it's the main reason for the lack of activity, and why any storms that do develop are likely to be isolated or scattered.

Might have been a little different today had surface temps been widely in the low 20s. 18z analysis showed trough over W'ern half of the country which triggered the heavy showers/storms over NW parts aided by strong heating of moist air mass. Most other parts only saw modest breaks in murk aloft, so temps were a little more suppressed. Meso. models certainly more keen to break out showers/storms over far NW, and perhaps at a more suitable time (lol), but, if I were you I'd head SW and take a chance on even one storm taking advantage of likely good CAPE environment late afternoon/evening period. Cloud not likely to be an issue tomorrow, so you'll have a good afternoon's worth of strong heating. Surface dewpoints up to 15C, perhaps 16C, and temps to low 20s will likely build MLCAPE close to 1000J/kg, so any storm(s) that fire in that environment likely to be potent. Looks like defined sea-breeze convergence will set up a little way inland with heating of landmass, so one means of forcing, but likely to be locally variable/converging winds generally in that region.

So if we stop wishing for strong thunderstorms then strong thunderstorms won't affect the UK? Or if we do wish for strong thunderstorms and strong thunderstorms happen to affect the UK we should... Feel guilty? Know better? Because our wanting it to happen somehow made it happen, or made it more likely to happen? Posts such as this never did make much sense to me. Especially on a weather forum, within a thread of enthusiasts searching for thunderstorm potential. Interestingly, they seem to mostly appear when we're discussing thunderstorms. You don't tend to see it when we're discussing potential for heavy, accumulating snowfall and very cold temperatures, which is far more disruptive and can, same with convective storms, cause injury or worse. Personally, I want these sort of storms to affect the UK. Exciting stuff. Get the adrenaline pumping.

GFS instability progs considerably down on previous outputs, likely as a result of it predicting less clearing of murk aloft meaning suppressed sfc temps, therefore inhibiting build-up of CAPE. Where good insolation does occur, which still looks reasonable, likely good instability to tap into for any storm(s) that can develop afternoon/evening period.