CanadaAl

Possible snow forecast tonight here in Cambridge. Will wait and see, won't get my hopes up too much. Seems to be this time of year, the best time for snow is overnight like in 2008. Anyone else seeing snow at the moment / expecting it tonight?

Apologies Jane, Will get back on topic. I'm wondering if it will be possible to see a repeat of october 2008 this weekend. I guess it's too soon to tell at the moment

haha don't even get me started. I was checking in with the DM forum on a daily basis last winter and all i saw was "Winter will be mild, 15 degrees" and "Bartlett high, loving life!" it was just tedious trolling but i had to say, with immense frustration came immense entertainment. Some of the stuff posted you just knew was there to crave a responce. It's a shame really, also one of the reasons why im on this forum this time round Oh and Skorge, does anyone remember him?

Oh well done barry, you've brought a doylem over to this forum Anyways, I see the strat has taken a sudden downturn but now levelling out and so I don't think that would be a conclusive factor just yet. Plus in previous years it seems to bounce up and down anyways, I can see why people are going with a mild start as there is a fair bit of cooling forecast but I don't really think we can jump the gun yet.

With the snow and cold arriving this early on in the season, would this suggest a possible negative AO? I remember my aunt telling me Calgary had around the same weather pattern emerging in october 2010

Yeah, that's what i was thinking. Seems bonkers for some to discount the beginning of winter just yet as there is still 3/4 weeks for us to see the strat warming/ returning closer to normal

Thanks alot for the update Gavin, Always nice to sit down with a cup of tea on a Sunday evening and catch your updates

Please don't haha. That's all i heard last christmas from them and Skorge "NAO remaining positive indefinitly", "Bartlett high, loving life!" and other such silly quotes. Im all for people expressing their opinions but they were just out to troll.

I hope this cold does set in soon.. getting sick and tired of those pesky mosquitoes still hanging around, it's october!

I have family based in Cochrane, just outside Calgary and heard it was 27°C on Saturday then it snowed Tuesday night. Is that normal for Alberta? I do know they can get some crazy weather out there..Last time i was there, there was a twister just outside of Sundre.(30 Jul 2010)

Yeah i've had a look. I'm definitly not taking in anything it says. Not just because im a "coldie" but because it has no backup or any evidence. Just as i would dismiss madden's crazy forecast. As Gavin P quite rightly said, there is a minimal tripole slowly developing in the atlantic which would bias towards blocking anyways. So even the opening statement is innacurate. I know its too early but still even the models are biased towards blocking occuring mid-november. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen but at least mad-man madden could use one those as a straw to clutch at. *Rant over*

Like BFTP said, you could be talking about December 16th or possibly December 11th, 2009. The first day the high pressure asserted itself and moved to our north and became established. Charts Below:

Just wondering, why is there a part 2? Does netweather have a 36 page quota?

Is it true that a particular run of the CFS such as the 06z is considered to be more reliable or is that just silly rumours. Anyways, such a jump from the 12z to the 18z with the 12z going for a too good to be true winter scenario and now with a normal zonal flow. Guess that's the CFS' way or reminding us it's only september!

Oh c'mon Barry! just kidding, i just find you can get more intellectual discussion out of this compared to DM where Skorge just fancies having a go at anyone who doesn't like the MO. Anyways, good to see you here, any thoughts?

Hi All, Fairly new to this forum, has to be said much prefer this one over the Daily Mail one! Anyways, been looking at the CFS 9 Month runs and there seems to be consistant run patterns indicating blocking during the first 2/3rds of november followed by an active jet during december. It does seem that November,January and February are the best months for real cold. Anyone else got ideas? P.S sorry for getting a bit ahead of myself considering it's only September!

It does seem at this stage that the jet stream is heading north over the next week or so giving us more typical summer conditions. I am starting the think we will end up with another indian summer like that we have had over the last 6/7 years again, as a strengthing Azores high begins to appear. I really don't understand why people are already going for a average/above average winter in terms of rainfall and temperature. I could really see a possible repeat of 2009 (But not to the same extent) What do you guys think?

Hi Gavin, Without calling your methods into question, I found the opposite to be the case for May this year. I had a look at the stats for my local weather station (Royston,Herts) and I noticed that the winds were very much coming from a northerly or easterly quarter for most of the month so I checked out the synoptics for May and saw for around 2/3rds of the month, there was high pressure over greenland or the mid atlantic causing the jet-stream to head further south forcing the storm track over the channel, thus giving us the appauling month we had. Wouldn't that suggest we had a neutral or negative phase of the NAO for the month? I could be reading this completely wrong so bear with me Alex P.S May 2012 looked incredibly similiar to 2008,9 and 10