Gorky

The Sunday event day 3 warning area is centred over MO/AR for a couple of reasons. The warm sector with this storm is pretty big and whilst instability in the warm sector is currently predicted to be low (750-1000 cape max) Excellent shear and weak capping make supercells forming in the warm sector quite likely. Given the less than impressive instability, I'm not 100% sold on this yet of course, but close to day1 this will hopefully be resolved better by the models. At 3 days out, the Western extent of the storms are still disputed by the models so rather than put a risk area too far west and then perhaps have to retract it, they are just limiting it to the areas which all models agree will see some severe in this time frame. Regardless of the position of the low, we can all agree a mighty squall line will be passing through AR/MO at some point that night. I personally expect I35 to be the westward extent looking at a combination of models but I do note that the GFS west of that and that model tends to have an eastern bias! If Cape values of in warm sector increase to the 1500 range, I expect the first high risk of the year and a possible repeat of soemthing like March 12th 2006. However, that is a big stretch from the instability values currently predicted, but yesterday out performed expectations as far as instability went (at least south and east of memphis) so you never know!

I'm heading to McAlester, OK to play in the 5% tor zone. The system is a little slower than last time I looked so this are should be in the firing line mid afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Cape values have shot up from yesterdays predictions of 500-750 to the region of 1250-1500 as per the 11z RUC. The Fort Smith forecast sounding is fairly interesting too showing winds starting to back by mid afternoon and great speed shear in place. Directional shear could be better but I suspect this area and areas west may get an upgrade to 10% to chances if this forecast verifies. I still think the better tornado chances will be towards dusk and in the region of the Western Tennessee and northern Mississippi borders.

I've drawn a map of the three main areas I would consider and the usual time periods for activity. Obviously it's not perfect and outbreaks can happen anywhere and anytime but as a rough guide it is pretty much ok. I don't really consider Carolina Alley a separate entity. The geography of the USA does allow for increased moisture return off the East coast to allow for better storms in the Carolinas than further west into the Appalachians but I think most consider Dixie alley to be anywhere south of the Virginia-North Carolina border and east of Texas. I listed the northern alley as Derecho alley. I only made that up as their storm season tends to be later on and categorised by higher end wind events rather than tornado outbreaks although these are still quite common in the summer months. Never heard of the term Hoosier alley before. Hoosier specificly refers to Indiana inhabitants so it seems a bit misleading. I know the outlines are not precise but it was a 2 minute job in MS paint so go easy Florida probably should be in the Dixie alley although they get tornadoes all year round due to winter classic events, spring and summer waterspouts and Tropical storm related tornados later in the year.

The I40 corridor between Little Rock and Memphis on the warm front has been the higher risk area progged for quite a few days (Not that impressed with the straighter hodos out in OK. I'm just not sure there's as much chance of that action coinciding nicely with daylight hours. I'm still a little less confident about tornados further west. I'd have to make my decision tomorrow on playing the I40 area which is reasonable terrain, or sticking with the hills but better lighting in OK. As for a virtual target, I'd stay the night in Fort Smith between the two target areas with Brinkley, Ar as the Eastern one and areas south and west of Fort smith as the Western area. If I went OK, I think the event will start early afternoon so the overnight stopover is biased towards that target although I'm 50/50 about chasing in the crappy terrain. I'm expecting the cold front to light up from Ft Smith down towards Dallas by 1pm if not earlier. Slightly concerned that it will bring only a wind threat and line out quickly. I'm guessing the best area for tornadoes would be South of Memphis around the 7-8pm US time which would put it into early night around the tristate area of MS/AR/TN although if moisture return is as beefy as predicted, this could shift further north uptwards Paducah, KY for instance Leaving myself a lot of leeway as things are still very likely to change substantially before tomorrow!

This morning's Day 4 Update. Things are still on track for the first outbreak of the year. The GFs has had this nailed since deep FI only occasionally losing the severe threat for the odd run. I posted about it 10 days ahead of the 24th and only did so after seeing it consecutively for 3-4 days in the very long range. Very impressive... and I usually don't loook past about 4 days for accurate modelling ...DISCUSSION... AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THU WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FROM ROUGHLY OK AT 12Z TO MO/AR BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW...A RELATIVELY WIDE MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA ON THU WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND JUST S OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST ITERATION OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD INCLUDE MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...FAR NRN MS...AND MUCH OF WRN KY AND TN. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRI/D5...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT FRI WILL LIKELY BE COMPRISED OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE COLD FRONT AND A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS...FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS VA. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...AND WOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED...BUT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WOULD ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE. AFTER THE D4 TO D5 TIME FRAME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY. ..JEWELL.. 02/21/2011

As I suspected, the moisture return is probably not going to be sufficient for much beyond a wind and rain event tomorrow, despite such a deep LP system ejecting through the Plains. The 23rd and especially the 24th are still looking good although the GFS and ECM disagree on the location and speed of the trough by a long way. Both would result in some good favourable virtual chasing come mid-week! Some pretty strong wording in the 4-8 day outlook despite not outlining an area due to the model discrepancies... FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

May 12th was good for me last year at least. Nailed a very tricky forecast chasing the 2% area by TX/OK rather than the 10% area I woke up in near the OK/KS border. I'm sure you guys wouldn't like to repeat your fun and games next May 12th though Keep up the good work Paul. It's fascinating even if it doesn't mean a huge amount for this year!

Still a ways out but the GFS has been very consistent in the early FI region for about 4 or 5 days now with the possibility of severe weather from the 20th onwards... Might not be enough moisture present early on, but the GFS has been showing a second system around the 24th quite consistently also with much better moisture return. Still a little early to say for sure if it's something we can virtual chase but it's something to keep an eye on for sure.

4th trip for the first photogenic one for me actually. Though I blame the weather patterns and my timing for most of that. 2008 was a great year in general but I arrived just after one outbreak and left before the next big one. Don't even start about 2009! Luckily I more than made up for that last year I imagine May 10th will be another biggie. Large events in 2003/2008/2010 come to mind.

It was the day after the back to back High Risks, although many of the tornados were a continuation into the early hours of the overnight outbreak which started the previous day in Arkansas. There were only 5 or 6 confirmed in Arkansas if I remember correct of which one was the DeWitt tornado you guys saw. None caused significant damage in the High Risk area but there were 4 fatalities the following evening in Missisppi from a number of strong tornadoes after dark.

Do you have to remind me of May 2nd 2008.. I so wish I'd chased into AR that day....

The Storm reports on the Dodge City NWS site is no longer available and pulling it up on Archive.org only shows the text but there were 12 tornados in all that night from the Greensburg cell all the way up to Clafin (where we saw damage the following day albeit most of that was straight line 100 mph RFd wids) I've seen some pretty poor video showing both the wedges of them but with such low light and a poor camera it was difficult to make out. Might be worth scanning through the Stormtrack archives for some post about it. There was another chaser who was on the Macsville storm and spoke the the LEO just before he drove north and into the tornado. It's on the storms of 2007 DVD along with a little tribute to the officer if I recall correctly. Most chasers that night obviously gave up at Greensburg and joined the rescue effort with those coming in from the Pratt direction probably not aware of what had gone down in Greensburg... Just saw your other post... I'm doing my own thing again, though I'm probably going to end up hooking up with various people whilst I'm out there... Pete is out from the 26th May to the 17th June I think. Not sure if he's chasing with Steve or not again.

It was hardly a convoy with Darin and Dick. We said we'd follow then they were out of view in about 60 seconds Michael Schumacher would have struggled to keep up. I know the day affected Dick quite deeply. His blogs in the following days were quie upsetting and you get a good idea if you watch the behind the scenes episode of this years Storm Chasers where he is shown in one of the production vehicles on the Yazoo City day and he is pretty torn up knowing that the possibility of another Greensburg is happening. I remember that night in 2007 being annoyed we didn't chase further into the early hours but seeing the devastation the next day I think it was for the best as I'm sure I'd have hoped equally badly seeing that sort of destruction. As a little correction, the 2nd tornado after Greensburg was only rated Ef3. It was arguably much bigger and stronger but hit only a few weak buildings so no higher rating could be given. There were 2 more additional mile wide + wedges on the ground at the same tame later if i remember correctly. An amazing day for sure...

I'll try to follow this event though I'm away on a course at the moment so net access may be limited :/. It's somewhat similar to last weeks storms which underperformed, but that failed to realise the expected CAPE values and resulted on only 1 brief spinup. Shear is much stronger here also. Very typical of an early year florida outbreak which are often quite common in La Nina years... If I have net access tonight at my hotel I'll have a proper look.

I booked through Opodo and I did a search and found a £25 off voucher valid till the end of Jan. It was the best price I could find before adding that code so a bonus to get it cheaper. I don't have the link anymore but it's worth searching for. Not sure how their prices were to Dallas which most people here will be flying to as part of the tours but the code was valid on all flights over £250

Well I eventually got my flights booked after 2-3 hours of searching Change of plans from the usual years and I'm flying into Denver instead via Lufthansa and Air Canada! I get into Denver at 3pm so plenty of time to plan for any following day chase. As I'm chasing till June 4th this year hopefully it will work out with me being further north than usual. Price came to £437 in the end. Was a real struggle to get it that low! All the sale prices were probably gobbled up whilst I was waiting for confirmation I could go. Should have just booked the flights and let them worry about it

A few of those tornados on New Years Eve snuck into 2011 but everything on their site reports in CDT so they show up as still being on the 31st December. As it is it appears as though it's been a quiet January, but in reality, we were 1 day off being well above average if that outbreak had been a day later Obviously, this has very little effect on our chances come spring and drawing comparisons with other years so early is probably a waste of energy, although a little fun if you take it with a grain of salt

It's made my day for sure! Now just hope we get 21 back to back slight risk days, as they performed the best last year for me with 18 of the 24 tornadoes in slight risks, only 4 in moderate risks and 2 on the high risk days

I have got confirmation that I can get the time off work in may Will be either 3 weeks from the 13th or 20th of May, so I'll have a chance of bumping into a fair few of you guys out in the plains. Will have to confirm a date tonight because I need it booked out with work by tomorrow now... Hope flight prices are still good! I doubt 2011 will top 2010 (24 tornadoes in 21 days for me) but to be honest... I'd just be happy to see some lighting again Only 1 day of storms since last May... Withdrawal symptoms are kicking in...

Everything is up in the air for me at the moment. Work is being crap with my new boss not able to confirm whether I can get the time off. I signed onto a project which was supposed to be from October-December of last year but it keeps getting put back and this week it has ended up being set for a deadline of mid May... I was supposed to get confirmation last week if I could get the time off but now I won't know till Friday. If I can go, I'll fly out alone and just mill about with the chaser I happen to bump into. Met a lot of people last year who I'll probably hook up with again if I'm in the area Just hope work pulls through and I'm allowed the time off (I only gave them 49 weeks notice!!! ) Tentative dates were May13th - June 4th. Oh yes... That is easily the closest I have come to dying storm chasing... and I got stuck in a field in the path of the Bowdle Supercell and had a tornado touch down 50 yards from my car....if that... I pretty much blacked out whilst driving and came to with 2 wheels in the grass. Collapsed as soon as I got into a motel room at about 6pm that evening, woke up in the early hours and spent the next two days being violently sick and other indescribable horrors relating to bodily fluids . I felt sorry for the mcdonald's cleaners at about every service area on the road to Sherman the following day... Avoid the Walmart popcorn chicken if you are in Roswell

Agree that most of the area is very safe, though I did have one scary experience in Arlington, TX with a drug deal going bad right outside my room. (peered through the window to see guns drawn! I hid in the bath for the next hour!) I was staying in a complete dive of a place near the big theme park on a down day. No way the netweather guys would stay anywhere like that! That is far and away the exception though. Even in Midland which is notorious as being one of the crappier cities in Texas (and birth place of George W. Bush), I got away with being pretty much unconscious on my bed all night with the motel room door wide open and all my gear either in plain view or in the open boot of the car without anything going missing (yay food poisoning). Outside of 1 or 2 of the bigger Texas cities, everywhere seems very safe and you really have to search to find the grottier places I wouldn't worry much at all about safety concerns...