Gorky

Wish I wasn't.... Everything is ramping up again after an hour of things struggling to get going.. It seems that in Kentucky, if you look outside at the moment and see it raining, you are almost certainly under a tornado warning... Storm now over Moon with the debris ball encompassing pretty much the entire town.

Looks like a direct hit at least to the north side of town. Last update put the tornado on Liberty Road which is where the hospital is located looking at Google Maps..

West Liberty, KY in the firing line of an immense supercell with 200kt couplet and evident debris ball. May move North but this storm has been right moving towards the town Edit: Couplet now about 2 miles west of town and moving East still at 140kt g2g

Large tornado on Bryan Kilgore's cam on Severestudios.com

Bob Hartig reporting a strong tornado just north of Palmyra. Met him a couple of years ago on the Bowdle day and he's not one to over-exaggerate

Twin couplets in Indiana. The right most one looks very strong right now....

Apparently Limestone Correctional Facility has been hit hard with multiple injuries. The prison was only just missed back in 2011 and there was some stunning video footage shot by some of the prison guards of the mile wide wedge. Seems they didn't get so lucky this time.

Just got in after leaving work late.... Took the afternoon off today back on Monday looking at the models but still got kept back at work.... Looks like things are already well under way. Several confirmed tornadoes in Northern Alabama including one hitting an area devastated last year on 4/27...

I think you're best up as far North as you can get really whilst staying in the good moisture. Terrain gets worse as you move south and the potential for everything to go linear with embedded meso's makes me think playing early near the surface low up in Indiana or Ohio would be best. the soudings for Dayton, Ohio are very good for about 3pm US time. So I'd start there. Better road network into Ohio certainly draws me that way, even if some of the better parameters are donw towards Ky. The NAM seems to be pretty robust on moisture return and shows almost 3000 cape pushing well into Ohio. The GFs is less robust and slower though so I may be too far north and east with this play and might need to readjust for the morning.

The GFS looks pretty good for a solid moderate risk tomorrow even if only for wind damage. The NAM is even better and screams High risk if that comes off. Some of the forecast soundings for the Ohio Valley are showing 2000+cape juxtaposed against SRH value of 1000 http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.png Sigtor is pretty much maxed out over a large area. the only thing which might prevent this from being a pretty crazy day would be a quick transition to linear storm mode but with the amount of shear forecast, there'd still be plenty of embedded mesocyclones I'd imagine.

Target for tonight will be Lexington, NE. Seems like we have some clearing in the area and models show some moderate cape here now with decent wind fields - enough for some low topped supes. Another area I'd consider would be central-west OK. everything East of there is going to be after dark and not worth chasing IMO. In other news, Friday still looks pretty Juicy on todays 12z! Models are still very erratic which is the only reason we didn't get a Day 4 risk.

I have to admit I sorta discounted that area too. Didn't think the moisture return would be robust enough and the good kinematics would go to waste. I'm still not convinced now to be honest but thinking back, I can remember a few times when 50/60 Dp/temp spreads have been enough to do the job but it's usually on higher terrain. I'm a little less optomistic overall about the threat now. Instability just doesn't seem to be there - perhaps due to cloud cover in the warm sector. There'll still be an appreciable wind threat, but the extent of the tornado threat likely won't be apparent until tomorrow morning, US time as we see whether we can get some good clearing and daytime heating in that risk area. Eyes are still on Friday here. The models seem to be very inconsistent though between either being aboslutely amazing or a just a bit meh. 12z looking good though

Looks like several weeks of potential activity if the GFS is to be believed. It's been consistent in showing an amplified pattern for the last few days and I would not be surprised to see a few big outbreaks next week and beyond. After todays slight risk, the next trough to traverse the plains does so pretty far north, and will not pose much of a threat. It will advect moisture north and not scour the gulf of moisture and that should result in a strong potential for severe weather as the next trough comes through on Tuesday. The GFs has been consistent in bringing in a stronger trough later in the week too (Thursday onwards with Friday being a potential biggie but 7 days out...) something I'm definitely going to keep an eye on!

Snow has finally stopped here. Been steady to heavy snow since 1:30ish. Definitely not what I expected! Seems to be a solid 2-3" of additional snow today... maybe more. Still wouldn't be surprised if whats out in the North Sea starts to push back westwards and give us a little more before this is over...

Got a good couple of inches at least here now. Looks like the stuff out to the East in the North Sea is pushing in from the North now so I expect we have an hour more of the heavy stuff at least. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 cm reported on the high ground. The A171 north of Scarborough to Whitby is now blocked due to an accident at Cloughton Hill apparently.I mailed work and advised my colleagues to head home to Whitby early given how much was falling so hopefully they got through before then! :o

Days like this are why I like being a pessimist so much. Expected a sleety mix or snow which wouldn't lay and we are approaching two hours of heavy snow which has covered all surfaces. Expect the worst and you'll always be at least pleasantly surprised

Snow is very heavy now. Lost visibility of Seamer Moor behind my house. Snow settling easily on side roads now with only the main road outside my house still clear of settling snow. This is proper snow with large flakes unlike the powdery stuff we had last time. Means the driveway is already covered and bar 1 big drift, we had no snow on the drive after the last event

We've had moderate snow for a while now here. NO indication of it being remotely sleety. Looks like it's going to get heavier in the short term looking at the radar so we may start to get accumulations when that gets here. As it is, it's probably only adding to the existing snow cover and melting on the clear paths at the moment.

Due to the powdery nature of the snow and the blowing wind, I actually have a few bits of the drive which have no snow cover. The car roof is clear also still. About 2-3 inches on the grass though and drifts against the driveway wall of 8-12 inches Snow just about dying out now...

Looking forward to the the predictions on the latest flare. Still gutted I couldn't get out last night. Perfectly clear sky and very visible from the coast. Had the camera charged and ready to go and no transport. In hidsight, the hours walk would probably have been worth it to get to somewhere I could watch. Weather looks no where near as favourable mid week for the next one even if it hits,

Seen some photos from Scarborough North Bay of the Aurora... Can't believe my sister has borrowed the car tonight of all nights so I'm stuck at home surrounded by light pollution :/

I've seen some photos on facebook from Northumberland of the Northern Lights so Scotland should have seen them at that time. They were taken about 2 and a half hours ago afaik.

With the exception of 1 or 2 episodes, this season was dross... I was sat next to them in Ada beneath the monster storm structure that tornadic supercell had and yet in the show they had no footage of the structure. They even comment on it being the most amazing supercell structure they had seen in ages but instead just cut to Reed and some "woe is me... I screwed up and didn't chase today crap" It clearly was never about the storms or they would have put some nice HD footage of that storm in the show.. Hopefully, discovery can move away from reality tv and back to tornado documentaries... The couple they did regarding the April 27th weren't nearly as bad as the show and I imagine they can make a lot more documentaries for the $$$ of stormchasers, plus give some normal chasers an opportunity to sell their footage.

Good luck Tom! Looks like a nice CME heading our way for tomorrow night. Hope the clouds stay away! I'll probably be watching the auroraskystation webcam tonight, and am hoping to head north in the car in search of clear skies tomorrow. Think we might have an outside chance of aurora into Northern England if we are lucky and it's very dark over the moors so might see soemthing. Should be something special overhead up in the Arctic Circle though!

It was a good night watching the streams, although most were down around Snyder when it looked it's most impressive. My target of Altus was pretty close to the mark so happy with that Only about 20 miles from the first touchdown of the day. Could easily have seen all the tornadoes last night from that starting location. Highlight was Andy Gabrielson's stream going down due to 'car trouble' and then it being reported on the news that his car trouble was that he'd rolled it over in a ditch after sliding off a mud road while driving backwards. He got into another car and continued to chase - possibly one of the TVN vehicles as they captured his roll on their cameras from the next road along. Contrary to the way the clip is edited on the TV, the tornado had passed and it looks like he was just reversing too fast down the road to rejoin the main highway for another intercept. He was pretty close to the tornado but it wasn't the winds that sent him over, jsut some bad driving Luckily, the car looks remarkably undamaged for a rollover!