Bolt from the Blue
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Posts posted by Bolt from the Blue
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Quite Impressive to see storms surviving in the Norwegian Sea! what do you have to say for yourself English Channel?
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Looks like this could be round 3 for some?
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anyone got any pics?
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No no no no!! I'm one officially unhappy chappy, devastated to be missing the super cell oop north!! Why can that never happen down here!! Nothing in Weymouth/Dorchester not even a sniff at a rumble!!
Fair play you lucky lot up north getting to witness Mother Nature at her finest!! How I envy you!! I just go chasing in America next year, if I don't see a tornado at least I'll get to see some lightning
Our next potential is tomorrow morning and friday evening, so still a few chances yet.
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Today still has potential, a quote from ESTOFEX forecast:
"There are two factor that may limit the overall severity of the situation:
A/ Degree of initiation. With no strong synoptic-scale upward motion and in the capped airmass, it may be difficult to initiate storms. Initiation will be more likely in the evening hours as 850 and 700 hPa temperatures begin to drop from the west and cold front affects the area.
B/ Stable boundary layer. Due to the very hot airmass around 850 hPa, it will require a lot of heating to destabilise the boundary layer and allow storms to root in it. Thus, especially in the early period, most storms will stay elevated (with primarily hail threat), as they move from France towards England. Surface based development will be most likely in the late afternoon and early evening hours."-
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some activity creeping into Cornwall from the channel
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Those storms in France look like they're already weakening and not even in the channel. My bet would be they die out and fire up again somewhere halfway up the country, seen it happen before.
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so far we have 3 sferics that have reached mainland
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Just took a pic looking to my SW, could this be the one in the Channel?
I have heavily edited the pic to bring out the clouds
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Storms over NW France now making their way into the channel, perhaps the Channel Islands could get some action?
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What are the chances of seeing some elevated storms over the SW tonight? CAPE values seem to be good from 2100.
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There is hope!
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And yet a corker is making its way happily up the North Sea!
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Load of poo as usual, with sst's cool no chance of surface storms not even elevated storms coupled with temp's that have not maxed out for most.........diabolical !!
Yep, just leftover clag from French storms. Drizzling here now!
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Need the sun to break through if anything home grown is to appear... Only other chance is an import and we all know what happens to them!
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I'd rather the storms arrived at early evening/night, much better display imho
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Don't feel confident we'll get much here tonight, so off to bed now. Then I'll be fresh for tomorrow's action!
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Storm looks like it's dying out across the channel, hope things pep up a bit again
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I am firmly in the club. Not had a storm for about a year. Hoping Friday delivers!
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Hideous GFS output this morning, next weekend looks vile - cold wet and windy. Funny how the unsettled weather arrives just in time for the weekend!
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Guys the eurotunnel is a great option, even better if you can get a few other storm nuts to come with and share the cost.
Plus you'll have your own car to chase.
About £100 return and you can change the date at the last minute (if it looks like the storms are actually coming to the UK!)
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I really hope, for my sanity and especially those further north, that the next output has the plume positioned further west. I don't know how much more of this annoying northwesterly wind I can handle!!
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I'd say it needs to be made more user friendly. The buttons can be easily pressed. I accidentally submitted a forecast the other day. Maybe some instructions too. I like the idea of it though!
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Beautiful sky this evening
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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by jpro747
This stuff heading up from France will be a Kent Clipper at best IMHO, it's veering off to the east now and the weaker parts to the west won't have the energy to make it across the channel.