Captain Shortwave

By the looks of it 30c is pretty widespread across the south today. 29c here too despite it taking a while for temperatures to rise due to some early mist and a lot of high cloud.

Sunshine is pretty weak thanks to the cloud, but temperatures are still doing well, around 27/28c.

As perhaps mentioned above, the ECM shows a substantial outbreak of thunderstorms on Sunday. Especially across the Midlands and Northern England. Temperatures again pegged back but still probably reaching 30c in the south east. The ECM has now gone back to a raw max of 30c for Saturday. Into the 32/33c in reality category or essentially around todays value. The ECM is the most aggressive with showers on Sunday, the other models are less extensive with more sunshine and of course higher maxima. For later next week we might need to watch for a couple of lows running along the jet stream, as the ECM shows there is one that might want to head towards the cold pooling near the Azores (the same one that is in place now). If this happens of course we could easily see heights rebuild over Europe again. Day 7 - Low in question is north of the deepening tropical depression. The UKMO actually has a defined trough in around that spot at day 7, the GEM has a deeper trough still, however the GFS has nothing there and a relatively flat jet across the Atlantic. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4918491

No mist this morning, there is however quite a bit of high cloud, which is probably the primary reason why temperatures are set to be a little down on yesterday. We should still see 30c towards the London area still.

As perhaps mentioned above, the ECM shows a substantial outbreak of thunderstorms on Sunday. Especially across the Midlands and Northern England. Temperatures again pegged back but still probably reaching 30c in the south east. The ECM has now gone back to a raw max of 30c for Saturday. Into the 32/33c in reality category or essentially around todays value. The ECM is the most aggressive with showers on Sunday, the other models are less extensive with more sunshine and of course higher maxima. For later next week we might need to watch for a couple of lows running along the jet stream, as the ECM shows there is one that might want to head towards the cold pooling near the Azores (the same one that is in place now). If this happens of course we could easily see heights rebuild over Europe again. Day 7 - Low in question is north of the deepening tropical depression. The UKMO actually has a defined trough in around that spot at day 7, the GEM has a deeper trough still, however the GFS has nothing there and a relatively flat jet across the Atlantic.

Still around 33c possible for Saturday The models this afternoon look a little better for Sunday too with the heat hanging on better, the arpege temperatures for Sunday should raise eyebrows… 35c across the likes of Cambridgeshire

30c reached here this afternoon. First day in a long while where it does genuinely feel hot.

Some of the global models have just mixed out the highest 850s a touch for the weekend, as such temperatures tending to be similar to what are seeing now (essentially 50/50 to whether we exceed the highest maxima this year). GFS The ECM operational was also down a degree or so this morning (raw maxima of 29c compared to 31c on the last couple of runs). Arpege 06z still has maxima of around 33c (possibly 34c) for both days of the weekend. It would be nice to see this figure reached to cap off this spell of weather before we welcome in more seasonal weather and probably sign off for hot weather this year.

Much better today, only patchy mist and less haze in the sky. Temperatures already approaching the mid twenties.

A much better start, mist/low cloud only patchy and shallow so has burned away swiftly, there appears to be less haze/dust too which should help.

Yesterdays 12z for Sunday Todays 12z A touched flatter today but nowhere near the flatness of the UKMO. Looks good enough for the low 30s on Sunday.

Saturday looking like the hottest day 34c still. Hoping recent trends don’t continue regarding Sunday. A few models are getting closer to pushing cooler air through in places now. The arpege still reaches 31/32c in the south east but temperatures lower elsewhere.

A high of 27c, I guess on one hand it isn’t bad given it took until almost 11am for the sun to come out. Yet in the other hand this was a good set up to hit 30c that seems to have gone begging. Trouble with the next couple of days is that history could repeat itself and high buckles to allow the winds to veer towards the north east and drag low cloud/fog in from the Wash.

Temperatures trying to recover now that the cloud has cleared and the very light wind has shifted towards the east/south east. Currently 25c so unless we can keep the steep rise going then I think we will end up short of 30c.

Only just brightening up in Huntingdon (which is well inland with the exception of the Wash). Probably still overcast back home. The surface pattern is different to what most models were forecasting even 24 hours ago with a surface flow off the North Sea from the north east, despite the 500mb flow suggesting winds should be from the south.

I think we might fall short, at the moment the bigger concern is somehow figuring out how the models are all predicting around 30c up here yet there is still no sign of the sun with thick fog/low cloud not wanting to break up at all.

This mornings output looks a little flatter than recent suites during this weekend and early next week. As such the likelihood of recording another 30c on Monday is less likely. Still hot for the weekend and of course the days preceding this. Moving onwards to next week, again nothing overly troublesome out to day ten. Worth noting that the low at day 10 on the GFS is fully out of the way at day 12 (pretty standard autumn fare), so not sure what the “parked” comment is about, the models don’t appear to be controlled by Jose Mourinho for instance.

Grey start here after fog/low cloud rolled in during the early hours. Hopefully it will burn back quickly but I am not encouraged when I see surface patterns like this…. Essentially north easterly winds for most of the day thanks to slightly lower heights in the southern North Sea. That said even this model has mid twenties at worst today in the north of the region and low 30s towards London.

Nice spot, the Synoptics for the coming weekend are approaching what is required to challenge the all time September temperature. As for the rest of the ECM, probably a tad over enthusiastic about rebuilding heights later next week. 850s this time less ridiculous of course.

Time to see where the ECM is compared to yesterday. Not much difference, the trough and low over Iceland looks a little weaker, not much difference over the UK. The weekend looking increasingly likely to be the best one this year for sunny and potentially hot weather.

The temperatures have dropped away quite quickly thanks to a breeze off the Wash that actually kicked in further (Quite a difference between here and Cambridge where temperatures have remained around 29c into the evening whilst they have dropped back below 25c).

Still a lot of detail to sort out regarding the weekend, so what trends can we get regarding the differences we have seen on previous model suites. UKMO day 5vs yesterdays day 6 A bit more amplification on todays run, a sizeable step towards the other models. The GFS ironically is pretty similar, a little more amplified purely because a more defined trough to our west. Just one last thing, the arpege may raise an eyebrow or two for Saturday…. September all time record within touching distance….

28c with a gentle easterly wind and clear skies (not much Saharan dust either yet). Perfect day

Lots of fog again this morning, funnily enough it start sunny at hole because the fog rolled in, yet a couple of miles down the road towards Huntingdon it was completely clear.

It looks like fronts will push east on Monday (11th), though there is a good chance that there will be one last hot day (especially further east). Week 2 looks rather non-descript as the Atlantic trough appears to lift out quite quickly and a north/south split develops, mixed in the north with near normal temperatures, probably mostly dry in the south with temperatures remaining on the rather warm side. ECM and GFS at day 9 No real sign of anything that could strongly counteract the positive temperature anomaly we will have by the 10th/11th, probably a steady fall as temperatures go from strongly above average to slightly above.