Captain Shortwave

Still uncertainly on the handling of this Atlantic system regarding the weekend and beyond, the ECM ens do contain a cluster that elongate that low north to south more significantly, which results in a slow breakdown and a more significant warm up during the weekend period with temperatures reaching higher than they did in June. Beyond this, the operationals are still tending to push the low eastwards on Monday/Tuesday as the pattern flattens out a touch. Will this happen in reality? Or will the pattern remain amplify and the low will tend to fill more significantly than currently modelled?

Still uncertainly regarding how the low will behave for the coming weekend, the GFS tending to hold onto the warm air for longer and with greater intensity. Again 30C possible as the temperatures are suppressed a little by shower development ahead of the cold front. Friday looks to be universally agreed to be a decent day with highs reaching the high twenties as warm air gets pulled up from the south.

The UKMO has the cold front sitting over Wales and western England by early afternoon. However a lot of showers and thunderstorms break out ahead of the frontal system which is the major provider of precipitation during the second half of the day as the front itself fizzles out. Raw maxima of 27c in a line from Oxford to the Wash, which translates to being close to 30c potentially. The still from 11am shows the front and the showers ahead of this. it wouldn’t surprise me if the shower risk has been over done at this range. Academic though at this point as other models are quicker with the frontal system. The ECM looks okay for Saturday in eastern areas the front sitting on the boundary between the south easterly winds and the westerlies following.

Saturday would hopefully be hot in the east with the warm air holding on. The models do suggest that the boundary between continental and Atlantic air may sit across the UK from Saturday until potentially Tuesday, so the threat of thundery showers or imports coming from France before low pressure pushes on a more eastward trajectory.

Not a big difference at day 8/9 in the grand scheme of things, but big changes across the UK where conditions are drier and warmer on thing run as high pressure to the south is allowed to push north again. That said that is a very active warm front showing on the GFS and again it seems to want to push any kind of low heights eastwards even if the physics suggests the secondary system should move more north east or north.

To be fair both the GFS and ECM manage to deliver conditions that would give a 30c maximum for next weekend. GFS Saturday (00z run but the 06z looks to be similar with that southerly waft). ECM is slower but has a raw max of 27c widely (probably translates to a 30c high somewhere across East Anglia). The eastwards push of the trough is at day 7 onwards, this could very well be one of those pushes that keeps happening at day 7, if it does then expect the models to upgrade next weekend and early next week in accordance to the trough remained stalled to our west.

The GFS and UKMO (Though not as bad) tend to keep things mixed, but obviously with temperatures returning to a little above normal. The GEM and JMA both develop a southerly at the end of week 2 before a slow thundery breakdown (hot but your more usual 32c maximum heat). The ECM has this initial push of warmth at day 6, again this isn’t anything unusual, however it’s handling of that Atlantic low is a concern if it stalls and sinks towards the Azores/Canary Islands given some eyebrow raising levels of heat across NW Africa that could surge northwards if the pattern allows. We are talking week 2 though, plenty of water under the bridge to clear first. Add to that we are safe on this run.

The ECM phases the shallow system running through the Atlantic ridge so quickly that it essentially gets absorbed into the parent low and hence maintaining the cyclonic pattern (albeit becoming a little warmer). No real push of heights from the south. That said for what it is worth it has dropped the discreet low for the middle of next week that was not on any other output.

All three models this morning now have a low slipping through the ridge to our west at the day 4/5 mark, this then allows a ridge to build ahead of this at the start of week 2. UKMO/GFS/GEM All three have a discrete area of low pressure west of the UK. This should allow heights to rise to the east of the UK and veer the winds to a more southerly direction later on.

Whilst the GFS had a poorer prognosis, the ECM is more positive; Low pressure tends to loiter towards the west of Scotland, always rather warm and probably quite dry in the east, plenty of showers towards the west though. Finally a way out at day 10

The GFS is interesting given we see that trough fragment which in term develops that new Atlantic low. This slow moving feature then allows a ridge to build ahead of it whilst the parent low moves away to our east. No dice on the GEM, though the low fills in a position that allows more of a cyclonic southerly. Or the ECM The low is a little further south east at this point and as such it’s filling position is also further south east (Over the UK). The UKMO looks similar to the GEM at day 7, I think week 2 could go either way at the moment, it could remain unsettled but there is the chance of the European high gaining a great foothold over our weather, it is never that far away.

Nice day, just patchy cloud and good sunny spells. It looks like the temperature has maxed out at around 23c, so still a little above normal for the time of year. The humidity isn’t that high today, dew points are in single figures with humidity around 40%. Just a pleasant feeling day.

For the north the outlook looks unsettled and quite cool at times. For the south the best hope of any rain in the next 10 days is from a wave developing on a cold front this Thursday that brings persistent moderate to heavy rain. Otherwise most days are dry with temperatures average at worst. This feature may need watching as overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning there is some mid-level instability that may produce some embedded thundery downpours. Before then, Wednesday looks very warm for the south east and shows the strongest contrast in fortunes. 27/28c possible across central/southern England. Not overly pleasant underneath the cold front elsewhere.

Widely 30-32c yesterday away from windward coasts. Much cooler todays with temperatures closer to normal. A few warmer days mixed in still, Wednesday in particular could turn out very warm still.

Despite being warmer today, conditions feel more tolerable than yesterday thanks to a fairly stiff southerly wind. Almost 30c here and it actually feels lovely.

A lovely day and out at Nene park under a shady tree. Some places have already reached 30c by the looks of it. Some cloud is beginning to bubble up though.

It’s seems like the thickest section of the cloud is on the leading edge. There are holes and breaks further within and the sun is trying to come out in Duxford (I can see the clear slot to the south east clearly still).

A cloudy start, lots of stratus rolled in just before sunrise. The cloud should thin and break up through the day, this helped by the fact that the source of the airmass will shift towards a more continental flavour as we go through the day. 29c, possibly 30c if somewhere gets lucky with sunshine amounts. 32/33c possible tomorrow.

The storm died before it even arrived, just a few spots of rain. Oh well time for a brief roasting before the return of Atlantic westerlies.

The ECM is a little different tonight, it is unlikely that the connection of the Atlantic ridge with the heights to our north will occur this time. Indeed, we get a pretty flat westerly, not awful but never a great pattern for sunny and hot conditions. Probably warm in the south and cooler and mixed in the north.

ECM also has 850s of up to 16c for Sunday, a straight southerly wind and mostly clear skies ahead of a cold front. It does look like 33/34c is possible, this could depend as much on how Saturday pans out (Temperatures are suppressed a little due to large cloud amounts that are currently predicted to bubble up).

Well it has clouded over now, I can see the big storm to the west/south west of here and it is slowly heading this way. Whether it will collapse or die off due to the loss of energy is another matter.

French view, but those are quite some temperatures across Eastern England on Sunday. The UKMO has 850s of 16c across the east on Sunday afternoon; The arpege kind of goes rogue for day 4/5 and has the Azores high ridging in more significantly than other models, as such temperatures remain in the high 20s even on Monday.

It really has felt like someone flipped a switch on the 10th of June because since then the weather has been solidly warm to hot with plenty of sun on most days.

Always the risk here given how close we would be to having the dominant wind direction come right off the Wash and hence no convergence zone. As such a very warm day here with only patchy fair weather cloud. Another day where 25c has been reached.