Snowshine
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Posts posted by Snowshine
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Main storm dying out for sure, even the mini cell is showing more activity!
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Hmm... I hope the storm takes a slightly more westerly turn - Now its going North?
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Current storms over France seem to be taking a slightly easterly direction.
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. And Northern Ireland at times... Although it seems we'll miss out this time.
Their Warnings are hardly accurate, as if the storms will take that exact path...
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Current models show great CAPE/LI values for most of England tommorow.
There is also a chance of storms next week, still early days though.
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Looks like the storm to the West has worn itself out so suddenly. Storm over London still going strong.
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Well... Noticed Flashes to the South at approx. 1:45AM, then the storm pushed directly over my area (S'ford) at around 02:45AM, bought very loud thunder, and several flashes of fork lightning too, countless amount of flashes at one point. Storm moving northwards but still seeing very obvious distant strikes, probably staying up a little longer, but the storm is
now dying out.
Not seeing many strikes anymore, might aswell get some sleep. Hope for a repeat or better on Saturday!!
Useful Lightning Tracker - http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
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Why?! Looks like if the storm hits the Midlands, it will be about 3-4am, and I will miss it - Either by falling asleep, or the storm going too far East if I'm awake !!!
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Actually the values are better on the 18z than the 12z for the Midlands, just the highest values East but this keeps moving around Each run. Pointless looking at it run to run now really. Models seem pretty confident that an initial push overnight will affect the East but by Dawn, the Midlands looks to get pounded.
I hadn't seen the 12z model (until now), but quite suprised how it downgraded the CAPE significantly across most of the West / Midlands, so the 18z is an upgrade. I was actually referring to the previous 0z and 6z models. But, still about another 5 model runs until we get a better idea of what will happen, so I'm not too enthusiastic at this moment
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But, wasn't the East/SE always meant to be in the best position Saturday into Sunday?
Previous GFS Run's had shown CAPE and LI values to be high among most of England, not just the highest values limited to the East. But, to be fair the CAPE values in the West/Central England are still very high.
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Highest CAPE Values decide to shift East once again.
Potentially another let-down.
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Hopefully this all comes directly into the South Midlands and not just the edge of the storms, as usual.
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I can only wish for the charts below to be the outcome for Saturday, however after previous downgrades to storms this year, I have little hope in the storms being as extreme as forecast models currently show.
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Heard some VERY distant thunder, probably from the South where the storms are brewing.
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3 Loud Rumbles, a few distant, not really constant
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Torrential Showers this morning, no convection so far.
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March 29 2014 - Suddenly went very dark at around 2pm, thunder slowly bagan at about 3pm then it suddenly started raining torrentially. Thunder was so loud it shook cars and lightning was close up, thunder went off about three times a minute and lasted around 20 minutes, quite an impressive amount of time for the intensity of the storm. I wonder how intense the storm would have been if the CAPE was higher (>500) and LI was lower (<-3). More recently June 8th also was a soaking, although I don't remember hearing any thunder but there was reports of it. The rain may just have been louder though (82mm/hr). Apart from these events, I have been unlucky with other recent ones.
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Sounds great... Now have to accept that is year is not my year.
Storm looks to be weakening slightly.
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I'm in, and for a long time...
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Jeez, the storm doesn't look to be heading North... Reading looks to be getting the storms very soon, but Im finished.
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Thunderstorms keeping South, CAPE levels not too high, but high enough for a few storms.
My area is really not a hot spot for storms, the showers love avoiding here.
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I think the Central Midlands deserves a decent storm. I recorded no thunder crashes last month and before the settled period, which was very unlucky. Hoping for a few rumbles to make up tonight. The worst case would be if the thunderstorms went slightly too far to the East or West, I dont care if they hit an area miles away, just as long as they dont 'just' miss us.
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Thundery Storms in the West Midlands, as usual, not CENTRAL Midlands!!!
Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Showers forming in the South of England which are pushing Northwards, but only one strike has been recorded within these showers.