Snowshine
-
Posts
675 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Snowshine
-
-
Gosh, storms really hate the Midlands, they always find the alternative route, I mean they kicked off too far west and then suddenly just north of us?!
-
1
-
-
One Torrential Downpour, more than the whole of yesterday.
-
I don't see further Electrical activity occurring anywhere, with the exception of the South East where CAPE levels are highest. Where there is electrical activity, it wont be particularly impressive. The squall which was producing lightning this morning is no longer electrical. The rainfall covering a large portion of England at the moment is getting lighter. I cannot stay positive because there is little chance of further storms elsewhere this afternoon, perhaps the odd heavy shower; without thunder or hail. There isn't much point keeping up anymore, next time I wont get over hyped until the day before the storm.
Expected CAPE shows CAPE of under 200j/kg and LI of only -1 for most of England, certainly missing an ingredient that ruined the storms today.
-
2
-
-
Your lucky you got anything... I mean, look at Stratford on that map, BANG ON at the edge.Twice in one day! looking south atm.................... Just rain methinks
-
Electrical Activity is dropping everywhere, I don't know why some people are saying that development has hardly begun; because it has and is due to end in about 2 hours for most of us. The BBC forecasted the storms incorrectly this morning stating that there would be thunder, all I see is rain.
-
The CAPE is not going to be high enough to strengthen storms, perhaps in the East there will be decent CAPE values. Central / Northern England probably have seen the last of storms, Eastern England has better chances.
-
Heavy shower... No electrical activity, pretty lame.
-
I have a bad feeling about the next storm after the last one. The last one broke into two halves with the Midlands in between, then it re-joined when it left the Midlands. This one looks like the same is going to happen :/
-
That map actually hurts to look at, I mean look at the line of thunderstorms, its like it was trying to go everywhere west except Warwickshire.
-
My gosh, its all about luck in my area. Didn't see anything, none of it was that loud. I honestly cannot believe they missed up by so little!!! The rest of today looks disappointing too.
-
Not looking good so far, the storm is breaking into two, one side heading towards Wales, and the other towards London.
-
The break between the storm is heading directly towards the Midlands, why have I got a bad feeling :/
-
"OK?". The whole of Warwickshire has a chance of getting some thunderstorms, not just the North, in actual fact the South has a slightly higher chance.warwickshire north and eastwards should be okay tomorrow!!
-
looks the east is taking a battering there looks like you and me are not if I'm reading it right
Bedworth is in Warwickshire, as is Stratford. Just looks like our luck keeps getting worse!
Hopefully we can expect the CAPE to shift to the West slightly in a later model, else we have little chance of an extreme storm.
-
-
A level 1 was issued for W France and S England for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issed for E Spain, S and Central France mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.A level 1 was issued for W-most Russia, parts of Belarus and the Ukraine mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.A level 1 was issued for E Romania, E Bulgaria and N Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for waterspouts.
Between a pronounced cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean near 45°N and a weak ridge over Central Europe, a deep Southwesterly flow with strong warm air advection spreads over Spain, France, England, BeNeLux and Germany. This configuration will open up a prolonged severe thunderstorm episode in these countries.Further East, a compact upper-level low slowly moves from Denmark into Southern Sweden. Rather low geopotential connects it with a second upper-level low over Turkey. An anticyclone sits over Western Russia.
DISCUSSIONE Spain, France, EnglandUnder strong insolation and a capping inversion created by the warm air advection, rapid diurnal heating and moistening of low-levels can be expected. Forecast models agree on the buildup of CAPE on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg in France till the evening with realistically looking surface dewpoints of 16-18°C. The instability maximum is expected in the Northern foreland of the Pyrenees. Deep-layer shear strengthens to 20-25 m/s, and at least slightly enhanced shear and helicity will also be present at lower levels. The conditions look prime that any forming storm can turn into a well-developed supercell. Main uncertainties will be if convective initiation can be achieved with such a strong cap, and if forming updrafts can grow persistent enough to withstand entrainment of very dry mid-level air.Diurnal timing of large-scale lift is adverse to widespread storm development: after a first short-wave departs eastward until 09 UTC, peak daytime heating hours will rather see large-scale subsidence over most of Spain and France. Only in the evening hours, stronger vorticity maxima will start to overspread the Bay of Biscay and Western France. Though their exact timing and placement is still uncertain, their contribution to lift will likely erode and finally break the cap. The most plausible scenario is that elevated storms will form over the Bay of Biscay in the evening and move northward into Western France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne) overnight. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk. Other kinds of severe weather (excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes) are also possible, but do more critically depend on the question if storms will be able to root down to the surface. If they succeed, they can fully benefit from moist low-level air and further improving wind profiles overnight.Late in the forecast period, elevated storms will likely extend into Southern England with a slowly decreasing severe weather risk.Further East and South, isolated storms may form over orographic features of France and Eastern Spain between noon and sunset, but will struggle to still penetrate the strong cap as soon as the detach from their points of initiation. If they succeed, supercells with a risk of large hail and severe downbursts are forecast, an even an isolated extreme event is possible.Relatively highest probability for initiation seem to exist over Southwestern France in the wake of the Pyrenees, where Northeasterly upslope flow meets with Northwesterly onshore flow from the Bay of Biscay. This region will also see a second chance for initiation overnight when an outflow boundary will move onshore in the wake of the aforementioned MCS. However, with slim to none precipitation signals in all models, confidence in convective initiation is not high enough for a level 2 despite the impressive thermodynamic and kinematic setup.
-
A high CAPE (>700j/kg) and negative LI (<-2) is not always neccessary in producing severe thunderstorms. I remember on March 28th this year; when there was a violent thunderstorm that passed by my area, and the CAPE/LI was not particually high, not even 500j/kg. The temperature was around 8C which is quite cool for Thunderstorms and the humidity was not very high.
The 12z GFS models show the CAPE and LI has been downgraded once again, it is slightly disappointing that our opportunity to experience the "WORST HAILSTORMS IN 170 YEARS" looks very unlikely, considering the CAPE has been much higher in the past, however things could change in the coming hours. There is still a possibility for severe thunderstorms with the humidity / temperature and some CAPE/LI, but not as severe as previously thought.
-
Most recent GFS shows major downgrades in CAPE and LI, especially across Wales and the Midlands. If these models turn out to be correct then I am not expecting any severe storms whatsoever, the maximum CAPE in the Midlands is 500j/kg, I mean??? That may not even trigger a storm... With an LI Of -2!
-
The highest CAPE values are more widespread than what the previous GFS runs show, especially in the Midlands, East & SW England, but the maximum LI is still -4 for most places in the most recent run, not quite high enough to bring "The worst hailstorms in 170 years". The timing of the precipitation may not be so good for all places either.
-
Probably going to be the same as June 28th 2012. The worst storms go JUST about too far east, and an odd minor storm passes by. Got my hopes up for a decent storm.
-
Being located just about too far east from the thundery shower.
Cumulonimbus formations occurring in England. Likely meaning thunderstorms. Today might bring a change of one!
-
This week is certainly not one to remember. Thursday was the only day that featured a few distant rumbles of thunder and downpours. Looks like there is no chance of a storm today, the CAPE is only 190j/kg and LI -1. The most recent storm here was on March 29th, nothing this week I can count as a 'storm'.
-
Living in the Midlands, storms that produce 50 mph gusts are fairly rare, but 60 mph gusts are extremely rare, and Friday's storm managed to exceed that in some areas, not to forget Wednesday's storm which produced over 50 mph. I am quite amazed that the two storms which produced the strongest gusts out of any other storm in the Winter period both happened in under 3 days difference.
After these storms I wont think of any other minor storms as 'storms' any more, I think wind will be something of the past for a while here, until next time.
Flooding was nothing in the River Avon this Winter, the River Avon only just slightly burst its banks around five times, but recently has stayed very low. 2007 and 2012 were much more severe in Stratford.
Monday wont compare to other rain storms, rain will be much lighter but rivers will still suffer as they are very sensitive, especially in the South West, and of course the River Severn in the Midlands. Possibly widespread 8 mm rainfall totals. Wednesday will bring more light rain. Thursday could be wetter, wind not a feature.
Storms will start coming into Scotland as rain, giving the South a longer rest, until early March when storms will come slightly more South. No snow in the forecast unlike previous runs.
-
2
-
-
The SW will be the worst affected by the 'final' major battering of the Winter, although not the worst storm in that area. Places inland might see this storm stronger than any other this Winter.
Storm and convective discussion 9th June
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yes, with the exception of CENTRAL Midlands, such as my area. The storms on Saturday missed this area, literally just missed by 5 miles. Today the storms took a similar path, except a bit further West. The East & West Midlands has had more luck with storms than Central.