latitude
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I've had to switch to radaritis as lamp post watching has been decreed a dead sport by the local authorities, as they now turn off the street lights after 11, saving spending, but screwing (pardon me) up my lamp post watching opportunities.
Lets face this whole winter has been a case of "Lets wait and see" thank goodness this is the last shout, I am so fed up of "Let's get the cold in and wait for the snow".
Bring me summer it's the time, bring me summer let the sun shine....
Like that...ha. We are still waiting for the cold......No cold in the whole winter.....only for something potentially cold to turn up in March.
Coldest night IMBY back in December -2.2.
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A few nice frosts on the way to end this poor winter (in terms of cold). NW LRF regarding HLB and below average temperatures was way off the mark. I am hoping for a mild LRF this November so the oppostie happens!
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Looks like a downgrade with regard to the western movement of the cold air. On this run it dosent get passed Cornwall.
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Amazing to hear the GFS being rubbished on here again for a cool/wet theme or cool/dry theme (no cold). Even the proffesionals on here and other sites are dismissing the cold easterly from the Euros. Will be interesting to see if the euros come in line with GFS...
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Yes rain is so heavy in Weston-Super-Mare it already look's a bit sleety , it is the type of rain you can see at dawn without needing to look at the lampost .
I can assure you there is no sleet in that PPN in mild wet weston!
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Not sure why anybody was looking forward to this event in the first place. If this event was favorable for snow in the SW (which now it isnt it seems) it would start as rain.
So the ground would of been soaked, the temperatures nowhere near freezing and the whole pattern massively boarderline.
Any snow wet and slushy over high ground and not much settling at lower levels.
Not sure the ages of members here, but it seems some of you havent ever seen snow falling on dry ground, frozen from previous days of hard frosts and easterly winds and snow that actually blows around the streets as it begins to fall. That is proper snow. Not this fronal rubbish we have had in Januray and maybe next week.
Maybe I have spoiled by previous events in years past.
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Anomaly charts - not height charts. Again this has been pointed out numerous times that an anomaly is just that.
And the anomaly for the first to months of winter so far at 500 hPa:
It is not the anomaly chart that has the error - moreso your ability to read them correctly.
Edit: note to self read through the thread further to see if anyone else has made the same point!
Thanks IF and JH
Thank you for your replys. Seems I am confused by anomoly and heights. Anyway, there hasent been any High Pressure across Greenland producing a blocked Atlantic scenario. This was touted all winter....still we are waiting for it.
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But again,those anomoly charts will count for absolutely nothing come the end of next week IMO as the shortwaves can and invariabley will change the bigger picture dramtically!
Very true. Those anomloy charts have been showing hight pressure over or towards Greenland all winter. They are not worth the paper they are written on until it starts showing in the models (which it never has all winter).
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Well, the GFS 18z suggests some patchy wintriness and possible SNOW tomorrow during passage of the Front to which I referred to earlier.
http://forum.netweat...60#entry2587793
It appears to cover parts due West and East. For those with access to the Fax Charts, it still shows up on there.
To my eyes, the next 12 hours or so could yet be of interest.
Yes that was on the TV forecast before you posted.
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Here's for snow on Sunday! I can't imagine it will be anything like what we got in January.
Im hoping upper temps, 2m temps will be better.
There was a lot of PPN wasted in both january events due to this.
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Quick glance at the medium to long range potential tonight, <snip>
Lets be honest AWD, its poor outlook for sustained cold. No GH blocking, just a mid atlantic high that topples. Not one of those charts posted show any decent height annomolies, just low pressure continually over Greenland.
The best we can hope for is something like Jan with a weak HP around Iceland maybe towards Scandi.
You really make your forecasts and thoughts very clear. Excellent for people like me who find it hard follow charts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
It is isnt a forecast, its just what the charts show at that time.
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Almost over Bristol too.
Not IMBY. Welsh Hills, nothing at low levels.
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Further on from GTLTW's post above, I still stand by my prediction of a colder outlook developing mid February time onwards;
Notice heights in the Atlantic blocking the Atlantic and a trough digging south into the Med, this isn't a mild pattern. Like I said before though, depending in how close high pressure sets up to us, could mean the difference between cold and dry rather than cold and unsettled. There is a possibility of the cold and dry scenario setting up.
There are further charts to support this scenario too, which i will post later as I'm a bit busy right now.
The charts are showing nothing but a NW influence and thats about it.
The chances of the Azores high making it to Greenland are quite remote right now. The NAO wont even go negative just neutral, that has been the same all winter and that is a crutial aspect for me.
Until something starts to show in the charts, the deep cold that everyone wants (including me) is just nowhere to be seen right now.
People are talking about the 10th of Feb onwards before things start to happen, there is definately only one more chance to get a proper cold spell.
Coldest temp so far this year IMBY is -2.2 that was back in December, the recent coldish spell produced a very cold -0.3!!! I am really hoping to see something colder than yet before March!
Convective snow please!!! Not the wet slushy frontal stuff we had recently!
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Here is a better map with averages for our region for people to see. 14 - 28 IMBY is abit short this year so far
Huge differences in a small area though!
Funny how the tip of Cornwall has more snow lying days than most of Somerset!!!
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Actually got below freezing this morning - 0.1!
The second minus reading in two weeks. One hell of a 'cold' spell!
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There`s a good chance that the upcoming westerly burst will not last too long and there are indications of this from various outputs.
Starting above in the Stratosphere mean zonal winds are still decreasing at lower and mid-levels and this will continue to keep the vortex under pressure and in a weakened state.
Looking at the 500hPa levels the last 2 operational runs around day 10 suggest that pressure will rise around mid-Atlantic and ridge north.
This develops from the regressing of the Euro high which is modeled for next week.The Atlantic train breaks as the Canadian vortex weakens and more energy comes down through Scandinavia.
We can see the trend in the 00z mean height anomalies for day10 reflecting the pattern in those latest op.runs.
One thing i noticed on the 00z NAEFs -they are different but this looks like it`s because the GEM Ens Hts are flatter and therefore skewing the combined output from that suite.
Certainly the GFS Ens anomls have been trending towards those Atlantic heights for a few runs now and with this change now just coming into the 10 day range the ECM ens are starting to pick this up too..
There`s no avoiding the warm up next week as we get that burst of energy from the Atlantic but there are definite signs in this mornings mid-range outputs that this Atlantic pattern will be relatively brief.
Height anomolys have been showing high pressure in the Atlantic towards greenland all winter. Havent seen it in the models yet!
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If the temperatures from last Friday until now had been below freezing the amount of lying snow in the region would of been quite remarkable.
Such a shame the temperature hasent been that cold, if it had stayed below zero throughout this recent period then this would of been quite an event.
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Lovely covering here, a few inches.
Once again, said this a million times...
If it was below freezing the snow depths would be so much more inpressive.
0.4 and steady.
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Snow flakes in Nailsea
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whe heyyyyy, looks odds on for some decent falls in Frome and all areas around us, good luck everyone.
Looks like the rain isnt too far away from Frome now.
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I should do well here then?! LOL
It's more to do with what's going on one mile up that at the surface.
What ive been saying all week. Shame 2m temps havent been a few degrees colder.
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That PPN is pushing in quite fast.
It will definately be a wet start to the 'event' (Somerset, North Somerset, Bristol etc) but its forecast to change to snow. Cant see much pitching on wet surfaces, but some will be lucky on higher elevations.
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As aluded to before regarding temps. We are really missing out!
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/22/overnight-minimum-temperatures/
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Something to do with cloud cover! If the skies had been clear the temps would have plummeted, minus 10 would have been possible, and still is the rest of this week, given any lengthy clear spells....
Yes, but surely the METO know whether its going to be cloudy or clear skys? Thats why I dont get their forecasts.
Not IMBY. 
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->
in Regional
Posted
Looks like a dry cold first half the week for the Bristol area, with milder air coming in thurs - friday.