latitude
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Posts posted by latitude
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If it is the only cold spell this winter then it is, it doesn't bother me. If you want a more prolonged wintery spell then the vortex being blown apart, maybe northern blocking, easterly winds is a better bet. If that doesn't happen then life just carries on as normal.
But thats exactly what you want? Thats what you said in your original post....
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I'm not really too concerned about this week for snow, its after next weekend that we should start to see the after-effects of the ssw. If you look in the strat thread on the general discussion board then changes in the vortex are starting to take place. The ssw is rather a biggie.
Yes but dosent mean it will have any effect on us. This cold spell could be the only one of this winter, its the here and now so looking two weeks ahead to something in la la land is ridiculous.
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Some have thrown the towel in by the sounds of it and writing off the potential cold! Things can change yet.......
Wheres 'gotolovethisweather'?
Or is it just me he bullys?
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Yes, maybe Alex, but this warning was issued 11 today and still mentions, mendips, Marlborough Cotswold regions
Dont use Metcheck. That changes with every model run from the GFS.
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For the SW region we need the cold air to be further West again on the 12z, 18z and tomorrows 0z. We need some consistancy between now and Monday so we get a good idea of where we stand.
If the cold upper air wont push further West on Monday, there could be a lot of damp conditions about throughout next week in our region and not the cold spell anticipated.
Lots to play for still. Just some model agreement would be good! But saying that the GFS and ECM do agree on milder air in the SW.
I want the GEM
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Well further to Lats attitude towards the unforlding output, I make the following observations.
As lats suggested, Saturday has slowly trended towards something of a non-event in parts. However, most folk should get to see a few flakes, most probably with nothing accumulating to any depth. However, currently I would suggest inland parts of Devon, Somerset and Bristol & Avon are on target for some of the heaviest preciptation, as reflected in NMM output. I totally agree that radar watching and lamp-post watching will also be the way forward from here on in.
Regarding the rest of the week, Monday was always another date to watch and we will not know more until most proabbly tomorrow evening. What should assist most folk's chances will be a snowcover prior to that particular event, so fingers crossed. So as far as I am concerned, as I suggested before, my ears will be tuned in to reports of settled snow out East slowly spreading Westwards during the day. Get the snow on the ground and all the predictions of Air Temps and Dewpoints will have to be altered downwards in turn. From Monday, eyes should be fixed firmly out West on precipitation attempting to nudge Eastwards over the frozen tundra in Central and Eastern parts of the UK.
I daren't look as far out as Wednesday for now, but one thing is looking increasingly likely, most of us will still be in Battleground UK at that time. I am not dismissing or acknowledging Wednesday's chances based on a basic numerically modelled forecast chart which states a 0% or 110% chance of snow on my roof. No way.
Nice post, ties in with my thinking. Glad you agree with me. My attitude for the latest output from the 06z GFS is an upgrade for snow on Monday with the cold air holding on longer. I wont look past Monday until tomorrows 12z.
And just to make it clear, I only post what model shows, cold, hot, wet, snow, upgrades, downgrades, flips and flops. I have no agender. Take it from me I want a foot of snow and drifts.....but try to just talk about what the models show on face value without any cold or mild emotion.
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Looking forward to the coming week, could be good for my bit of the SW, in the Cotswolds. With regards to snow don't forget the winters of 09 and 10 snow was forecast but the predictions of where/when/how much had no real clarity until just hours before the event really - in fact some of the falls I remember only had that clarity when it started showing on the radar! So yeah an interesting week coming up. Lava java coffee for this one...
True. Difference here is we are much more uncertain of rain or snow due to upper air temperatures. The -5 line was out past Cornwall during most of the 2010 cold spell.
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Thanks for this Gibby.
In my rather untechnical view, that is pretty much how I currently view things.
In the short-term, it looks like it could disappoint for a few folk, however I simply can't take my eyes off the medium to longer range prospects at this stage.
I suggest the overused phrase of "screams of potential" is going to be heard even more often in the coming days.
Yes its always 'potential'. Wish those ECM charts were more +24 than 120. The GFS is so messy, a clean movement to cold on the operational would be nice.
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beat you, I'm forecasted 27mm
Got below freezing here at 8.30am and i had to scrape ice off of the car.
Wednesday? Looks like rain according to latest output my friend.
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Let's hope this shortwave diving down through the uk on Monday is moved west over the coming few days, that will get those cold uppers further west and give us a much better chance of the white stuff
It is, better run??
Slightly better, but heights to Greenland being stopped.
Better for snow prospects Monday.
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06z looks slightly different for saturday now good/bad depending on your location.
Slight adjustments make such a difference. Seems to get weaker and weaker all the time.
Well earlier it as Bang on Bristol to Reading, now jumped of east at 21.00 Sat, then more PPN towards Bristol later in the night.
Forget the models now for Saturday, its all down to radar watching if you ask me!
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"The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?"
The one i saw was yday evening, from Ian, for Monday was defo showing snow so that is a downgrade. Things could flip back again i guess - we'll just have to wait and see. The euphoria in the Mod Disc Thread yday eve was manic! A little more subdued today, unless the next set of runs 'deliver'.
The temperatures seem on the up too. Will wait and see what happens. The ECM and GFS downgrading for our region today, and we are getting very close to T-0.
Could be the case our region gets the mild air as GP suggested, then we will have to wait until the end of next week to see if the a colder push comes back our way. Dont fancy watching the models chasing the cold for another 7 days.
Anyway lots can happen.
I watched ITV this morning, and the weather girl who left BBC had massive graphics up say 'BEAST FROM THE EAST'. I hadent seen any model output at that time, but thought........oh no.
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Let's hope we get a flip back westwards because yday eve it looked like almost the whole of our region could have a really decent snowfall. Even Ian F put up graphics for Monday.
Feels like a slight trending away from that scenario this morning.
Maybe my 'wintry mix' scenario for next week is more likely, but things could still change for the better.
The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?
According to the GFS its very very borderline IMBY.
Feel very sorry for Cornwall and Devon people, it hasent really shown anything at all for those regions except across the high ground.
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Any link to Ians forecast for those who missed it?
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Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.
There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.
Anyone denying the moce towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.
QUOTE
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Close run thing, but as stated Cornwall and parts of Devon dont really get invited to the party.
here the t120 and t144 850s, -4 would guarantee snow in that set up imho, so sorry cornwall and parts of devon but for the rest of the region....YES.
Bristol was rain to light snow saturday on the BBC website, now that has disappeard. Anyway the important thing is to get the cold in place, and hope it sticks around when any fronts from Atlantic try to push in. Then some more proper snow might be on the cards.
BBC GIVING PLYMOUTH 10 DEGREES ON SAT..
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Lattitude and Twister, at the risk of sounding like a miserable old git can I please appeal to you both to chill a bit. No one knows who will get snow, the odds of it happening change with every single model run so there's absolutely no point in hanging on every single one and believing it is gospel. Perhaps an approach to model watching and waiting for winter weather should be made along the same lines as buying a Euro millions ticket - everyone hopes to win the jackpot, sometimes someone does, sometimes no one does and it gets rolled over into a bigger and better prize - occasionally no one wins for weeks and it gets set back to square one. Every now and then you may get a tenner, even rarer you may win a hundred quid but the important bit is to keep buying the tickets to be in with a chance - no ticket, no hope. What we currently have is a huge pot of hope with an increased chance of winning a tenner, some lucky folk may win a few hundred quid and if lady luck is on our side, in a week or so we may get a shot at a rollover jackpot courtesy the SSW.
Im not hanging on every run, just describing what the run shows.....whats wrong with that? If it was showing -10 and a blizzard I would say, if its shows mild then thats what I would comment on.
Thank you for the lottery talk...very good.
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No idea after Monday but better pattern after the earlier output.
The rain/snow for Saturday seems to be becoming rather under whelming now.
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An example;
A small feature gives this
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BANK. BANK. BANK.
The most positive post I've heard from you for a long long time.
Oddly, I thought it was a bit of a downer compared to yesterday's GFS 12z but I'll wait to see what the ensembles have to say.
The only I dont like is the -5 line moves away from our region, so anything from the sky would be wintry but maybe not snow. You can see Cornwall and Devon wont see anything from this unless across the moors.
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T132 - And thar she blows.
blows what? More snow into SW and Wales
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Snow again in the SW and Wales Tuesday............corr
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Much better than the GFS 06z. We hold onto the cold with snow events possible.
This run matches the METO text output.
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
We had a slight shift on the 06z, so lets hope the short wave drops down the country in an even better position.