latitude
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Only -1.8 IMBY Yatton North Somerset. Still waiting for some much colder temperatures.
I was very supprised by the difference in the two forecasts from yesterday evening.
Ian's forecast at 7.00 pm had temperatures below freezing on Friday showing snow for three days.
At 10.30pm local and national really showed how marginal it could be.
Im sure the forecasts will be different again today, but this will be very marginal for Devon. The temperature as shown on TV hits 5 degrees in Plymouth throughout the forecast. DP's will come into it, but could be very slushy.
We will see....
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1.2c IMBY FWIW.
Quite a range of temperatures, mine 4.0. One or two degrees warmer than BBC forecast.
Thanks 'gottolovethisweather' for your temp. For What Its Worth, as you say.
Thanks to the other members who gave me an idea of the local temperatures, for what its worth its very interesting.
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Its 3.1c in Princetown Devon.
And thats up on Dartmoor, so could be looking at 4.5 today?
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Anyone have a temperatures for around the region?
BBC going for 7 in Devon. Anyone approaching 5?
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Another surprise short-term development ahead of us.
Don't you just love these wintry type synoptics, nothing is EVER set in stone.
The end of week development is also yet to develop too.
Heading your way.
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Very true, but snow makes us happier than dreary rain.
And that is certainly true!
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To be honest a day of snow on Friday even if it disappeared by Saturday would suit me! Just no more rain!
Depends if you mean 'no more rain' as in, no more flooding?
Any snow will melt anyway, so flooding will be an issue.
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UKMO currently anticipate return to average temps through weekend but only after potential for disruptive snow event. Nothing in their analysis of 00z output steers away from notion of growing likelihood of a very snowy breakdown from W during Fri. Strong MOGREPS support on snow probability.
Thanks again Ian F. Most welcome.
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This is abit of a poor cold spell for southwest so far and unless we see a decent event on friday it looks like being a non event. Can't help but feel that its not a good sign its not even wednesday and we are seeing downgrades to the event. We have yet to see a hard frost!
When is this SSW going to deliver I'm losing hope.
Well im still waiting for my first frost! The colder weather started last Saturday. To 'gotllovethisweather's delight I have just had three consequitive nights of rain.
Today and into Thursday look coldish (3 degrees IMBY and 7 degrees in Devon), then what happens Friday is anyones guess.
Bit of patience needed, we will probably know by tomorrows 0z.
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Goes right against the latest UK METO fax and charts though - quite a big difference really. (sorry can't post charts at mo).
If u take the charts at face value we've gone from "Blizzard in SW from days gone by" to possibility of more flooding, all in the space of 24 hours! And that's for a 24-hour period starting on Friday in real time! Exhausting stuff!
Yes, I did quote one your posts earlier saying if the front stays out in the Atlantic its cold upgrade for the SW. Hopefully this will happen, that could be mean no snow event, but keeping the cold and dry weather is more important if you ask me.
So if the front does push in, as I said it coud be a wintry mix then rain (06z).
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Just got a feeling the block wont be strong enough for us in the SW with the colder uppers being mixed out giving us a wintry mix to start then to changing to rain. I would of liked to see the 06z match last nights 18z. As I said before the 12z will be interesting.
Taking the 06z alone, the East will do well again.
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Oh and just to add, think this thread is the best place for discussing the model output for the SW from now on. The Mod thread is so IMBY right now.
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Minimum temp last night +0.9.
Looking for below freezing tonight.
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Too early to tell - plus i ain't no expert.
Come to think of it, in these situs the 'experts' can only give a considered view of what's in front of them at this stage, for the next few days ahead.
If the front on Friday stays in the Atlantic and slides into France, its an upgrade for longer lasting cold.
The 06z pushes the -5 850 line well out of the SW, and the undercut doesent seem to occur.
Interesting 12z coming up later.
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Three nights of rain in a row now, from this so called cold spell!
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heavy moderate rain in yatton north somerset
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That stuff coming SW out of Wales is interesting.
Ian said above 200m (Mendips)
Again, im harping on now, its just not cold enough at lower levels. Just my opinion, its 2.8 IMBY.
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Ask Fred? I wouldn't want to offer any more hype or drama.
Very much appreciate your posts here Ian. But due to this being a public forum posts like that will happen.
Please stick around Ian!
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Click through the next few frames and see it evolve then!
Thats right, its all about the undercut!
Could be slushy initially though. (Cornwall, Devon)
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Your forgetting about the south easterly wind that will accompany the precipitation, very cold surface temps and dp's over in the near continent and hence bucket loads of snow!
Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later.
GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp.
This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.
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It doesn't have to be too cold though, as just posted in the MOD thread, the uppers don't even have to be that cold, e.g. Feb 1978 produced loads of snow for the SW, even to coastal areas, but look at the uppers:
That chart is for Thursday morning, according to the GFS there isnt any PPN about, but it probably shows a warmer sector.
What im getting at is, we are supposed to be in a cold period, and in the SW it isnt that cold. The chart was just an example. This cold spell was supposed to of started last Saturday, by Thursday with all the charts and hype that has been posted on this forum I would of imagined -4 or -5 IMBY. Anyway, again just my opinion and thoughts.
That's based solely on the GFS. All other models show it colder. Plus this from Ian;
ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.
Hopefully Friday then, due to the undercut on UKMO we get some coder air, especially for those in Devon and Cornwall to see some white stuff.
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My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.
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4 runs a day, different ouput from each run, the only model bar the ECM 32 day model that goes out such a long way into FI.
Can somebody please dig me out some FI charts showing mild and cold, I bet anybody will probably find both in there.
The GFS 12z is a good model for determing trends IMHO, especially when backed up by the MetO and ECM output.
The GEFS 12z ensembles rarely let me down when its to trends either.
We don't have fergieweathers output to hand, but I suggest his thoughts would be similar to that which has been dished out by the GFS 12z within the reliable.
*by the way I don't work for the GFS but I know what experience tells me over the years*
Ian F says the UKMETO and ECM is preferd.
Also said that any snow on Friday might not stick/settle in places...
"Indeed it is. Will await analysis of 12z later this evening. Colleagues also cautioning about extent of any settling at low-levels later in week even if it occurs. But it's miles away for any certainty and for sure, any regional (let alone sub-regional) take on this isn't worth paper written on."
Its probably due to the temperatures just not being cold enough in the SW during this week up to Friday. Sometimes it better to have intrenched cold for a number of days before any snow arrives. Today reached 6.1 and think temps IMBY will be around 3 degrees tomorrow unitl Friday...it just dosent seem cold enough for proper settling snow. Only the slushy wet stuff that has been seen today. But thats just my view.
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Agreed,
The cold gets washed away very quickly
Yes thats the GFS though.
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->
in Regional
Posted
I havent seen the forecast this morning.
But as I said on my earlier post the BBC/METO have been showing temps of +5 throughout their forecast, the -5 850 line gets pushed out even on the GFS run.
It looked very marginal from the start, and it seems the METO are now forecasting just that.