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Ninman

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    Winter 2014-15 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this not a snow RISK map rather than how much snow? Obviously common sense dictates that you're probably more likely to get more snow where there's higher risk, but it could also mean just a flake or two.

    Well yes, I didn't say how much snow, but if its at 100% then its likely it will be more than a few flakes. Either way its likely to change nearer the time.

    6z gfs-p shows heights building in to Greenland at the end of the run with a cold northerly developing

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Totally agree! - I couldn't make head or tail of that model forecast and what synoptics can cause those temperature anomalies.

     

    It must be sponsored by the Daily Express.

     

    Seriously though, it does make you wonder how the model came up with this! Just goes to show that long range model output is very rarely accurate and can also defy logic in terms of climate and current synoptic indicators, so its best to ignore them and use them as a guide rather than as a forecast (although with this output, you may as well just bin it!)

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Some early signs of heights trying to build in to Greenland within the end of the 0z run on the GFS Para:

     

    npsh500.png

     

     

    Interestingly the 'older' GFS keeps the heights further south on the same frame. I wonder if the Para GFS will stick with this and try and build heights in to the artic region much earlier than the GFS over the next couple of weeks

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    UK big freeze to start next week according to Exacta weather:

     

    The big freeze starts next week for the UK & Ireland - models and other forecasters are adjusting (as suggested) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

    Long-range forecasters have vehemently refuted the Government’s mild forecasts up until now. The Met Office, which has up until now distanced itself from the severe cold forecasts, today CONCEDED that though still uncertain “we could still see spells of cold or very cold weatherâ€

     

    I don't know what models they are referring to, as they all seem to be showing average temps for next week; maybe a touch below but nothing that will 'freeze' the UK!

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking forward to bashing the met office at the end of Jan when this LRF goes pear shaped yet again for them, will they ever learn. If they dont know for sure they should shut up, and  stick with their more reliable short term forecasts.

     

    It may not go pear shaped? I'd be surprised if we see widespread low level snow before January. Even then we could end up with just 1 significant snow event (such as 2011-2012 winter where we had 1 widespread snow event in Feb) but the rest of the winter being largely mild. Nobody knows what will happen but if the Met Office didn't try to create long range probabilities then the public would know doubt bash them for not having a go at it.

     

    The Met office know a hell of a lot more than I do, so with the data they have available, I would rather put my trust in them and not bash them. Its all still experimental (hence why they are having a new super computer built), so it will be inaccurate at times, but that's not a reason to have a go at them.

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    throughout the 'second half of November

    the second half start on 16th=3 days from now. Does it look likely?

    How likely does it look even 10 days away=23 November?

     

    Exactly John, I would use the word deluded but that is an understatement!

     

    Anyway...back to the real world! I hope December brings a taste of winter (a few cold crisp days and a little frost would be good), with the core of any cold/snow weather in January to keep the festive/winter feeling going after christmas to make going back in to the office tolerable.

     

    In January this year I was on a business trip to Warsaw. It was about -15c and biting winds, overcast and snow flurries. It was sooo cold but the locals said it was nothing special and it gets much colder. I'm glad we have water surrounding our land; I couldnt cope with that every year!

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Madden says:

     

    The computer models are still all over the place - today they want to keep the wet & windy scenario going for the foreseeable...

    However, they will have no choice but to adjust to something more cold and wintry (snow) throughout the 'second half of November' and into December (watch this space for the imminent changes)

     

    So does he threaten them if they don't adhere to his hopecasts?

     

    I am satisfied that we have autumnal weather in autumn - cold and snow is for winter (Dec-Feb)

    • Like 3

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have a feeling it won't be long before the GFS Ensembles 850 Uppers are going to be posted on here. 

     

    As of yet I can see no reason to be posting them, but I just have a sneaky feeling at some point in the next week or so we're going to start seeing some juicy FI charts. 

     

    My only worry is the lack of any real cold air to our East, but it is only early November so perhaps I am getting a little ahead of myself

    Looking at the 6z gfs, there appears to be some attempt at a PV split at 30hpa being modelled at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see if that develops any further.

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