Ninman
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Posts posted by Ninman
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P23 from the GEFS illustrate a possible roue to maintain a cold theme. A slight (and I meant slight!) wedge persists over Iceland, then moves east to Scandinavia, which this migrates back west over Iceland. This leads to lows sliding underneath and keeping the UK mostly cold with further risk of snow and drawing continental air back in at the end of the run
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Lokks like my son may be having a snow day tomorrow as nursery will probably close. He's just recovered from Covid and first day out of isolation today. He's loving the snow now
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2 minutes ago, RobR said:
Derby the sweet spot it seems, a little jealous as it was never meant to get that far north but I guess the East Midlands hasn't seen much this season!
Not sure about that. This is the 5th occasion it has snowed in Notts and it is not even Feb yet. Most snow events I have seen in many years!
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24 minutes ago, kev238 said:
About 4-5 cm in central nottingham. I feel quite lucky as less than 20 mins north there’s hardly anything.
I'm in Carlton, just 1cm here. Now just started to get heavier so hope it will catch up with your amount!
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Finally started in Notts now!
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Still not reach up to Notts yet, radar seems a little off
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9 minutes ago, kmanmx said:
Looks like it's going to stall around notts, so someone in that region should do well!
Hope so! Not started snowing yet but radars show it should any minute now.
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Still snowing in Notts but with small flakes. Very little additional accumulation compared to a couple of hours ago. I hope it does not go slushy otherwise it will be an ice rink in the morning
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small flakes in Carlton, Notts with a 0.5cm covering. If this keeps up I could get a 1-2cm, which would be the best Jan snowfall in years
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3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:
What's so boom about that? The cold air never makes it south.
Was looking good north of UK, but the Azores is spoiling the party on this run
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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Just a point for those thinking snow won’t settle because the ground is too wet; Snow can settle if it’s cold enough and the precipitation rate is high enough. In fact, high precipitation rate can even overcome warm surface temperatures and allow snow to settle with the ground temperature then falling. I’ve seen snow settle following torrential rain countless times.
it is now starting to settle here, but intensity has dropped as it has started to do so. Hopefully it can intensify a bit. I had the same iss at the start of Dec - rain ->snow which started to settle after a couple of hours but then faded and all melted a few hours later.
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7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
The Azores high isn’t really the issue here, it’s just a result of slow rounded LP system pumping up heights to our south, unfortunately winters in the U.K. now seem to be dominated by slow moving lows phasing across the Atlantic, it’s very hard to keep cold air nearby to tap into with this type of setup.
I’m not sure what positives there are to take this morning to be honest, both GFS and ECM are a long way from what we thought at day 7
It is at 300h - This isn't a good look. But as we all know, we would get better accuracy at this range by having a child draw it
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2 minutes ago, danm said:
Agree, I think the Azores high has been the key spoiler so far with this set up.
Yes if the Azores can do one it would allow the LPs to dig further south rather than just filling in over us, so we can maintain a flow of colder 850s from the north/NE. At the moment we just keep getting wrap around cold which gets heavily moderated.
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Heights slightly lowered over Italy at 210h on this run.If we can avoid a pressure rise over the med then that's a small positive Trying to be positive!
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7 minutes ago, Snowy782 said:
Can’t currently see any snow at QMC!
I am up in Carlton and it is turning to very wet snow, but as it has been raining quite a bit, it is very wet out and unlikely to start sticking
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10 minutes ago, Paul said:
Keep an eye out for the 15z as we've made a change to our prec type algorithm on there which'll come into effect then (the prec type isn't a direct data feed from the UKV, it takes various data params from it and then our algorithm takes over to produce the output). The reason for the change is that in this type of situation we felt that the snow was a bit underdone in places, so we've put a correction in.
For those expecting it to go nuts and put snow everywhere, that's not going to happen I'm afraid but there will likely be some more pink on there than there is right now (unless the raw data on the 15z has a massive change of direction of course!).
The lying snow maps (which are directly from the model) from the 12z are a good indicator of what's expected right now.
Looks more like what I am expecting. More for northern and eastern areas of the UK with some lying snow in more central areas with elevation. Certainly don't expect any lying snow where I live. It will be interesting to see how this pans out against the updated algorithm!
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Yesterday, we were confident a cold spell would start the middle of next week.
The problem is, as ever, when we start kicking the can down the road until tomorrow, tomorrow never arrives.
Sounds like a James Bond film parody where 007 goes undercover as a meteorologist!
I'm curious as to what happens with the dip in 850s after 20th in the short ensembles. Most likely a 20c scatter but hopefully the mean continues on a downward trend!
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1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
Hmmm there is an amber warning out now for the north, but no adjustments further south of the yellow warning
I can only see this being a north/north east affair with a bit of altitude. Looking at the dew points/wet bulbs etc, low levels will be rain with some sleet mixed in. Even if it does turn to snow, I doubt it would stick at low altitude.
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10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
We have gone from a Greenland high to a 945 low
This is what the GFS appears to do when it can't see a clear outcome. It is like a child eating up their sweets and then realising they have no more. Do they ask for more or accept they have eat enough - don't know how to handle this so will try and destroy something.
I expect even if these lows appear in reality, they will be much less pronounced
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Moderate snow here now, starting to stick to the pavements too. My weather apps don't have a clue whats happening, they keep flicking between showing snow and rain every 5 minutes!
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Snow now becoming heavy in Notts, but not really settling (as expected)
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Rain is steadily turning to snow in Nottingham. Most likely will turn back to rain as temps start to rise slightly.
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1 minute ago, joggs said:
The thing is though even if it's negatively tilted like that and undercuts(big doubt)there's no cold to back west.
There is...it's just 3000 miles away.
At least there is no giant nectar card purple blob visiting Santa at the north pole. If we had that and the heights to the south, then it would be awful. At least we are in a semi-decent state for further developments down the line - just need some of these lows to dive bomb in to Europe
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Anyone up for another day 10 chase? Height rises towards Greenland again...
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not that I take much notice of the BBC weather page, but for my location it now has snow showers continuing up to 13th Feb, which wasn't the case this morning. They always over do temps and underestimate snow potential, so this caught my eye.
We also know the GEFS ensembles can flip as per the Op. I would expect the 850's mean from 11th to reduce down by a few degrees in the next few days as better handling of the second low comes in to play. GFS likes to resort to bowling over the UK when there is no clear path, so like others, I would expect the second low to firstly be less intense, and then secondly become more shearerd/elongated as it hits the UK Freezer.
Interesting times ahead, and in the mean time, plenty of snowmen (and women, cats/dogs) to be built!