Ninman

I woke up this morning and saw the car iced over with a light dusting of snow. I don't think i've ever seen snow this early here....beats having to wait until Feb like last year!

So the only way that would work is if the cold spells were a few days long and then immediately jumped to well above average (say to 15-20c) to bring the CET value up. Considering Feb is the shortage month of the year, the temps will need to see-saw wildly and quickly! I don't put much faith in this happening!

There's a ground frost here too. Looks like it could be widespread this morning.

His forecast for summer did seem to be largely correct, however his winter forecast last year was wrong. It doesnt matter if he gets it wrong, but not admitting so, and then trying to find any shred of evidence to prove he was right, really annoys me. Vogan's ideas are good, and I am supportive of the effort he's going to, but I am dissapointed he's now charging £33 a year to view his website, especially, when last year he kept calling for a brutal winter, and even believed a week before xmas that it could snow on xmas eve (when all forecasts/mdels were pointing to mild/wet/windy)! He then kept changing his mind about when we would see snow, and kept calling it every 2 weeks until it finally did in February. Unfortunaly I cant provide a link to this as I refuse to pay that much to access inaccurate LRFs or shortrange forecasts I can view on the MO website for free.

I like 'free heating'! I have a conservatory connecting to the lounge - it usually gets up to about 23c this time of the year if its a sunny day, so I unleash the warmth in to the rest of the house before sunset. I think housing companies should start building glass houses

The GFS has gone mental! I bet it will be the opposite on the next run

My heating is on now, but thats at the wife's request....I suggested putting on a thicker jumper but she wasn't having any of it!

This is the beauty of it. Currently its not possible to predict exactly what the weather willbe like in 3 months time; and this is the golden nuggat that people are trying to reach. From what I can see, there are so many variables/factors that can dictate the weather and this is the challenge that people are tying to overcome. By trying to understand, we make mistakes, and from these mistakes we learn, which enhances our understanding and allows further development to take place in trying to predict future weather.

The leaves on the trees are starting to turn a deep red/yellow where I am. I love the colours that autumn brings. I think they are looking more vivid than last year. Lets hope we get a few fine, cold crisp mornings in October (It is looking like we will, last Autumn was rubbish). I like the feeling of crunching leaves underfoot and kicking them up in the air as I walk!

Good stuff!! I didn't really understand this before but you have put it in a clear and easy to understand way

One thing I have noticed on the CFS is that it is consistantly showing for the last week upper 850 values of -8 to -12 at the end of January/early feb. Obviously it's months away so I won't read too much in to it, but it looks promising for cold weather. I wouldn't be dissapointed if it didnt snow, so long as it is cold......It would be nice to have a season that reflects its typical self! 16c in December 2011 and 13c in Summer 2012 just feels wrong!

I saw a brief patch of grass frost this morning! I think last year I didn't see any frost until December. On a seperate note, have you seen the GFS run this morning? Beginning of Oct is indicating snow for Scotland and a northerly airflow as the jetstream pushes south, bringing the colder air south also (increasing the risk of frost). With the stormy weather we will get in the next few days, it looks like Autumn could be quite erratic - quite different to last Autumn!

Same here! I keep reading articles/posts on various websites about the reasoning behind why this winter is supposed to be cold/snowy but then others counter argument this, and then models show something different!. An interest in the weather is fairly new to me, so this is a good learning curve no matter how winter turns out and whichever LRF is right.wrong

I'm heading up to the Scottish borders next week and it looks like there could be another cold night Monday night according to the GFS :