Ninman

Currently snowing in Northumberland, big flakes are coming down, which were not forecast. Edit, now there's thunders ow..something I've not witnessed before.

Nooooo! I should have put my foot down with the missus and stayed at home for Christmas! There better be more snow this winter otherwise its going to be over 2.5 years at least since the last snowfall at home. Enjoy it

There better not be any snow in Nottingham, im in Northumberland until Monday and im going to be gutted if there is no snow here but some back home!

No snow here in Nottingham I believe, however I'm in Northumberland until 29th Dec, so may hopefully just see a few wet snow flakes from it!

4.8c for me, another slightly above average month similar to this month. Another forgetful winter I think.

Well yes, I didn't say how much snow, but if its at 100% then its likely it will be more than a few flakes. Either way its likely to change nearer the time. 6z gfs-p shows heights building in to Greenland at the end of the run with a cold northerly developing

Interesting FI output - AO looks to go deeply negative and NAO looks to turn neutral GFS-P 12z looks dump snow across scotland and notherrn england between xmas and new year: No doubt this will change come tomorrow!

It must be sponsored by the Daily Express. Seriously though, it does make you wonder how the model came up with this! Just goes to show that long range model output is very rarely accurate and can also defy logic in terms of climate and current synoptic indicators, so its best to ignore them and use them as a guide rather than as a forecast (although with this output, you may as well just bin it!)

50 shades of grey! Hopefully there should be some sunny spells over the weekend

Some early signs of heights trying to build in to Greenland within the end of the 0z run on the GFS Para: Interestingly the 'older' GFS keeps the heights further south on the same frame. I wonder if the Para GFS will stick with this and try and build heights in to the artic region much earlier than the GFS over the next couple of weeks

Sound logic, just hope it comes to fruition! Thanks for all the hard work

UK big freeze to start next week according to Exacta weather: The big freeze starts next week for the UK & Ireland - models and other forecasters are adjusting (as suggested) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html Long-range forecasters have vehemently refuted the Government’s mild forecasts up until now. The Met Office, which has up until now distanced itself from the severe cold forecasts, today CONCEDED that though still uncertain “we could still see spells of cold or very cold weather†I don't know what models they are referring to, as they all seem to be showing average temps for next week; maybe a touch below but nothing that will 'freeze' the UK!

It may not go pear shaped? I'd be surprised if we see widespread low level snow before January. Even then we could end up with just 1 significant snow event (such as 2011-2012 winter where we had 1 widespread snow event in Feb) but the rest of the winter being largely mild. Nobody knows what will happen but if the Met Office didn't try to create long range probabilities then the public would know doubt bash them for not having a go at it. The Met office know a hell of a lot more than I do, so with the data they have available, I would rather put my trust in them and not bash them. Its all still experimental (hence why they are having a new super computer built), so it will be inaccurate at times, but that's not a reason to have a go at them.

I've just noticed the daffodil and hyacinths have started to shoot up above the ground by a couple of cm. Hopefully a few cold and frosty nights will stop them thinking its the end of winter!

4.1oC please.

Exactly John, I would use the word deluded but that is an understatement! Anyway...back to the real world! I hope December brings a taste of winter (a few cold crisp days and a little frost would be good), with the core of any cold/snow weather in January to keep the festive/winter feeling going after christmas to make going back in to the office tolerable. In January this year I was on a business trip to Warsaw. It was about -15c and biting winds, overcast and snow flurries. It was sooo cold but the locals said it was nothing special and it gets much colder. I'm glad we have water surrounding our land; I couldnt cope with that every year!

Madden says: The computer models are still all over the place - today they want to keep the wet & windy scenario going for the foreseeable... However, they will have no choice but to adjust to something more cold and wintry (snow) throughout the 'second half of November' and into December (watch this space for the imminent changes) So does he threaten them if they don't adhere to his hopecasts? I am satisfied that we have autumnal weather in autumn - cold and snow is for winter (Dec-Feb)

Looking at the 6z gfs, there appears to be some attempt at a PV split at 30hpa being modelled at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see if that develops any further.

Or its several degrees warmer than average?

My mum used to say ignorance is bliss....I can't see it changing much from the last run tbh

This will be interesting! The only way both the MO and the OPI can be accurate is if we only see a cold pattern develop from late Jan and have zonal patterns in December. Otherwise one of them has to be wrong; which one will be correct?

6.9 For me. A mild first half with a trend towards slightly below average temps towards the end of the month.

Well it is Friday night....probably sinking a few glasses of prosecco

Its on for about 15 mins in the morning and evening to take the edge off, and also to stop the wife complaining. She gets in from work earlier than I do so I set it to briefly come on so that she doesn't put it on for longer than needed. Hopefully it will stay mild until the end of November to keep the costs down!

I think the source of this stems from exacta weathers Facebook page as madden posted something similar along with a link to a daily express article......must be true then!