Ninman
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Looks like @sheikhy might be right. The showers look to be converging in to one area off the coast around 10-11am! Nice upgrade if it happens!
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It looks like a decent one, from North Nottingamshire down in to leicestershire are in the firing line! Also just noticed an amber warning out for nottinghamshire...was not expecting that!!
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A slight dusting last night around midnight which looks to have drifted in the strong winds (my car looks like a zebra!) Just starting to snow again now - checked the radar and a streamer looks to be set up straight over me, so could be a good morning here!
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Ninman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where have we seen this scenario before? Deja vu at its finest! Would be ridiculous if we get in to this type of repeating pattern. Not expecting this but would be weary of a quick breakdown with this depth of cold built up over the UK -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Ninman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This mild interlude that was progged a couple of days ago isn't going to happen. This is an outstanding chart and to me, looks on the money. No bucket loads of shortwave drama to get through either. So, so exciting! -
Met office app now updated again for a mix of heavy and lighter snow from tonight through to midnight Tuesday with max temps of 0c. If that we're to happen then I reckon 10-15cm by Wednesday is possible.
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Hope so mate! Just took my son out for our daily socially distanced walk and it's ruddy cold out with a few flakes blowing in the wind. Looking forward to lamp post watching this evening. One good thing about having to work from home now is that you can stare out of the window and check the radars more without getting funny looks
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Met office app doesn't have much of a clue. Now updated again to no snow until 3am. Before this it was updated to have snow showers most of the afternoon.
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Bring them east 20 miles please! Edit: Cheers, a few flakes blowing around in the wind now.
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Wind has started to pick up here in Notts, its a bitter one! Looks like some snow showers packing in to the North East moving south west over York, and Sheffield. May just clip the north of the region over the next few hours. I reckon some more. May hit land further south over Skegness-Bridlington area, which could be a direct hit to the North Midlands Here's hoping anyway!
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The cold needs to embed first. Snow showers will come in off the east coast from later today onwards.
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Morning all, no snow in Nottingham yet, temps still at 2c. Hopefully shower activity will kick in later today/tomorrow. Was a little dissapointed to not see a dusting over night...then I looked at the 18z and 00z GFS Ops runs...Bloomin 'eck! Another monster BFTE or a massive northerly. ECM looks like it could go either way! GEFs also trending colder after a less cold blip. This is going to be a fun week! Looking forward to all of your snowy pics
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I'm happy to report that my mum says its snowing in Chesterfield! Still rain in Nottingham but temps are starting to drop, now at 2c.
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Just a thought but I can't remember a time where there has been lying snow in my area in Dec, Jan and Feb. Wonder if we can add March too? Defo a possibility with the way things are appearing in FI! 4c here but looks like this may be the warmest it may get for at least a couple of weeks? All downhill (temp wise) from here, on a sledge of course! Let the good times roll!
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Those are penetrating well inland on gusty winds. All good stuff!
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ICON-EU has a verical band moving east->west overnight. Could give a cm or 2 for some (better than nothing )
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This just proves the point that in this kind of setup, showers will pop up at short notice in various places. This happens with rain showers (how many times have people been caught out with a hefty shower when none were forecast?). Snow is more difficult to predict than rain, especially with convective showers. We have 5-6 days of easterlies so plenty of chances for streamers to get in land.
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For my location, the GEFS go for 100% chance of snow. Every model is going with something different. Eyes glued to the radars over the next few days. The missus won't be too happy!
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I would stick with the ECM on this one! What a cracker
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Looking at the GEFS precipitation mean for Monday, literally could snow anywhere (or everywhere!)
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In the last snow event, there were no warnings for my area, then when the snow was fizzling out, they put out an amber snow warning. It's like Boris is in charge
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Ninman replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's my favorite Pert (P23) delivering the goods again!
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Exactly, when it comes to shower activity it is impossible to pin point where they will be at this time scale. I remember years ago (maybe 2012?) Where Notts was expected to get 5-10cm from an event and we got nothing, yet Mansfield and Leicester (North and south) got lucky. All part of the fun of weather watching though!
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To point out how useless the apps are. the BBC app has gone from showing continuous snow between 11pm Saturday - Monday afternoon in Notts, to no snow at all. Yet the warnings remain in place between Sunday and Tuesday. This will no doubt change again later this evening!
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I don't think people should get hung up on exactly where it will/won't snow, how much etc. As this winter has already shown, streamers/showers can pop up anywhere at very short notice. The fact that the models are already showing areas of snow around the region in to next week shows the potential. Things will keep chopping and changing from run to run but I am pretty sure most areas will see some snow at some point. Keep the faith, it's SNOWTIME!
