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TEITS

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    GFS 06z charts discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    :lol: -->

    QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 12:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
    Fascinating GFS 06Z up to 90 hours. I'm really beginning to think we *could* be on the verge of a major cold spell from the east.

    Wonderful to watch isn't it.

    What with the ECM output and now the GFS currently continuing the trend of rising heights, throw in the UKMO this makes brilliant viewing.

    I liked your comment last night that when models struggle as much as they are you know something is brewing ( something like that anyway).

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY

    Wonderful to see the confusion has cleared this morning. At this rate the only thing we can do is use the very scienfitic method of looking out of the window :lol:

    All eyes on the +132 fax chart to sort this one out for the time being. Worth considering though the UKMO +120 chart has IMO been the best performer so far this winter with some consistent accuracy.

    Look how chilly it gets!

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF

    RAF Marham recorded -6C last night so not a bad start to the cold spell.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Haven't looked at the AO ensembles for a couple of days but was surprised when I viewed them.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

    Two days ago the ensembles indicated a return to positive values +1.5 but now they seem to be clustering towards negative values. What with some of the recent GEFS ensembles indicating the posssiblity of a negative NAO this coupled with the AO could mean some significant N blocking towards mid month. I know this may sound silly what with this weeks weather uncertain but a cold Feb looks on the cards to me :lol:

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A word of warning to the rampers... the 18Z control run is a rapid, rainy breakdown for most:

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-2-108.png

    Don't get carried away with WZ's "operational", whatever that may be (cant be up to much if they don't even put it on the ensembles )

    No that link was taken from the GEFS model and the run we saw tonight is from the GFS so you won't see this run on the ensembles because the GEFS has it's control run and 14 ensemble members.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Its also confusing me slightly why people are liking this run. Dry easterlys are useless and if this was to be the case then people will be getting bored waking up to frost every morning. However if its a easteley with loads precipitation, then there is room for excitment. Of corse you got to consider that this is only one run so anything is possible.

    Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.

    I know which I prefer.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry I dont share the optimism. This run is a major downgrade for a rare large scale snow event midweek. As has already been said an Easterly will only bring snow to the extreem East. What the 12z and Fax etc show is a snow event over most of the country giving at least 5cm to most locations. Sorry but this is a disapointing run as far as im concerned. Anyway whinge over back to the beer :lol:

    Personally I have never understood the excitement of a few hrs of snow followed by a thaw and then rain. Seems like a waste of time IMO.

    If we could see a true E,ly bringing that mass of cold air over the continent this could bring joy to us all. Some people think all E,lys bring is snow showers on E coasts. :lol: . All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!.

    Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I would prefer number 3 than number 4. I think people on here wants to see snow and not just V cold and frosty weather so i don't understand the celebrations.

    Then again people are more of an expert than me so they may explain why they are so happy with a increasently stronger scando high.

    I suppose this is what I was saying to JS earlier it's all about your location dictating whether you like this run or not.

    Im sure those away from the E will be willing the front to move in across the W whereas us members in the E will be hoping some of the colder shown on the link below comes our way.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

    Good way of summing up the 18Z is poor for those looking for snowfall because the front would die out pretty quickly on this run. However the potential especially for us in the E is certainly worth watching.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Surely if this easterly developed for the large part of the country, there would be less if any snow with just the east facing coasts doing well from the odd shower??

    Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options.

    (1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps

    (2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs

    (3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold

    (4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather

    (5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP.

    Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.

    The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    :drinks: -->

    QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 12:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
    One heck of a cold pool out to the east if we were to tap into that then we "could" be onto something special.

    Great to see you on here again Paul.

    This Scandi HP has got me very curious indeed especially how the models are handling this. Over these past few days the models have hinted at this moving being closer to the UK. Now on the 18Z this is ridging further NW to an extent where E England is pulling a SE,ly in.

    What in your opinion is the chances of this HP having such an effect where the Atlantic is unable to progres across the country and dare I say it an E,ly pushes across the UK.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    That's a safe bet alright :D:D

    Hope you feeling better Brian :D

    That's a little unfair.

    I would have thought we all play a part on here

    Trouble is JS you are not considering other members locations when you post your conclusions on the models runs.

    You mention atlantic storms which is fair enough but the possible snow event is of far more of interest to a majority of members on here than any potential storms at the moment.

    So I have no problem with you concentrating on your location but remember what the weather is likely for you isn't the same for others.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    One thing I do want to add is when I said the countryfile forecast could be null & void by Mon I wasn't being disrespectful to them. I find the Met O to be the best in the world when it comes to forecasting but in these situations it must be a nightmare to forecast. When you consider we shall already have cold air in place, pressure rising to our E, Atlantic trying to move in which isn't exactly bringing mild air in, it all adds to being a huge headache for any forecaster.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY

    I do realise that; but the charts indicated at T144 show the beginning of the end of the cold northerly flow over our shores; and a more modified (but not exactly mild) Atlantic airmass starts to ooze in.

    Why are you so certain??.

    Correct me if im wrong but wasn't it so certain that the atlantic was going to move in on Wednesday.

    What im basically saying is over these last few days the trend has been to prolong this cold spell due to heights increasing to our E. Who's to say this trend will continue and the advance of the atlantic will be delayed further. Who knows the models may continue this so we find that the precip never makes its way across to the E!!. This of course is unlikely at this stage but I have seen these scenarios so many times over the past 30years that I wouldn't write anything off just yet.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, but not in Carlisle.

    :rolleyes:

    All over at T144 tho....I'm dreading the massing of that PV just to the west of Greenland. Arrrggghhh.....

    Hang on though PP it was only a few days ago that the models indicated a few hrs of snow and milder weather arriving by Wed.

    Look at the temps at +144 for Friday hardly mild is it!!.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

    The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur. Even the countryfile forecast tomorrow will be null & void by Mon such is the uncertainity and the likelyhood of further changes. I suggest members look at the models with an eye to the overall trends rather than the will it snow attitude.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY

    I tell you what nobody may not have a clue what is going to happen at the end of the week but who would of thought a chart like this was possible 2 days ago!!.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

    Im like Nick Sussex it is what happens beyond this week I find more interesting because when it comes to the snow event we shall probably have to wait until 48hrs before the event to know what will fall.

    Except Tamara because she did say this was a possibility.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    After that the Atlantic looks too dominant to me to be resisted even by TEITS' easterly wish.

    You see it is a statement like that what irritates me.

    The E,ly isn't me wishing it to happen or hopecasting or even drawing it on my wallpaper. The E,ly was shown on the GEFS ensemble and all im doing is merely highlighting the chart in the MODEL discussion thread!.

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all and what a very good sets of runs this morning.

    A week of lovely frosty weather with max temps only around 3-4C and min temps could drop down as low as -10C in some favourable areas. After this we have the potential for a snow event before the Atlantic TRIES to move in!. One chart that I find interesting is the +144 where after the precip moves across the temps across W parts drop to -7C. This can only be down to one thing snow cover and slack winds.

    Notice I say the Atlantic tries to move in because im not so sure it will!. The trend since yesterday is for the GFS to delay the arrival of the front due to rising pressure to our E. Well the GEFS have finally thrown in an ensemble which given the current pattern was in inevitable.

    Atlantic tries to move in.

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-192.png?0

    HP to the E builds preventing atlantic moving in and forcing a shortwave to move SE undercutting the HP.

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-252.png?0

    HP in full control

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-324.png?0

    Beast brings blizzards for many.

    http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0

    I know this is only one member but I tell you what I would not rule this pattern out whatsoever. I shall be watching the GEFS +192 if this pattern gets any support.

    In depth Model Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for this Brickfielder (and everyone who contributes). I have to say I find this thread by far the most useful one in the winter area and hope that everyone takes the time to view it, even if they don't comment on it directly. It's good to get some completely unbiased analysis.

    I agree OON a wonderful post from BF and like you say the good thing with BF post is that there is no biased at all towards his analysis which IMO provides a much better evaluation of the situation.

    I wish my biased wouldn't affect my posts but I can't help it :D

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