TEITS
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Posts posted by TEITS
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Good thread this because im curious to read who complains at the lack of snow when they weren't even forecasted any by either the models or forecasts.
Im not having a dig at anyone but it's more of a general observation of reading posts before the cold spell arrives.
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Im going for 1.9C.
Why you may ask? well I keep predicting this so im bound to get it right so time
Seriously though a month very much dominated by blocking bringing alternating E,lys, N'lys. Next month could be very special indeed.
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bit young for an objective account I'm afraid but lots more deep snow, and very little sun, very unlike the fairly sunny 62-63.
I'll try and make an objective series of comments if I can find the local rag back numbers to help my memory.
John
Hi John
I've been reading many accounts of the 47, 63 winters and what suprised me is just how severe the 47 winter actually was. As you say the 62/63 winter was very cold and prolonged but when it comes to deep snowfall and general disruption to the country the 47 winter was far more severe by what I have read.
What I also noticed during these winters is how many people lost their lives with many accidents being those of people falling through frozen lakes,ponds,rivers. Ever since I was a child i've always craved a winter like 47,63 but upon reading my weather books I recieved for Xmas I never want to experience a winter like those.
I shall have to post some of the literature from these weather books because one of the books has weather accounts dating back from 1700's!.
P.S I've got some pics of Met O weather forecasters back in the 60's, I shall have to post their names and see if you remember them. Also I was reading how George Cowling used to travel on the tube with his hand drawn weather charts to the studio to present his weather forecasts!. You know in a strange way I wish our forecasts were still presented like this.
Nice post by the way Mr D.
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Piers doesn't look at charts. He makes it up based on a mysterious prediction of solar activity. That's how he predicted the blizzards at the end of last november and the severe storms a week before Christmas ... :unsure:
Didn't he claim a success for the Dec storms because of the tornado that hit London :lol: .
No doubt he will do the same for next week when a snow flake falls on the summit of Ben Nevis :lol:
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Piers is going to cause problems if he continues to issue these forecasts.
Suppose later on a real blizzard does look possible and warnings are issued by the Met Office. What will happen is the public will take no notice and get caught out. Doesn't Piers use the solar system for his forecasts?
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NOT near bexleyheath Sf.....
More tremours approaching SATSIGS 2 from the Peterborough region this morning.... The mere mention of the world Easterly escalates the situation to Code Amber ...
S
Yes my cautious/realistic approach has gone out of the window this morning.
I smell an E,ly in the wind or was it that dodgy chicken tikka I had last night.
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Indeed! I think you've hit the nail on the head there. When all else fails (and that seems to be the mood) then how about some reverse psychology? The PRP technique: Peterborough Reverse Psychology.
Something else I will keep an eye out for, when charts are perceived as being this poor, are the quasi-mystical posts: give up on science and turn to 'Mother Nature' instead, especially if she can be seen as a snow-benevolent force who always corrects things in the end.
I've been rumbled :lol: :lol:
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If you did then you certainly haven't included everyone on the list at that time. I know I entered before then, and I don't see SB either, or several of the other low bidders. I assume you've taken a "top 30" slice?
Your right SF because I posted mine on the 22nd Nov on pg 2 of this thread.
Any chance I could add 5C on my prediction <_<
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Hi All
Did I detect a small ramping tremour in the early hours of the morning from the Peterborough area, the word easterly was mentioned in the GMO Discussion
Cheers
FC
Plenty more ramping yet to come im just getting warmed up :blink: .
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Hey thanks.
My old mate Steve Murr post's here and I've been browsing the forum for some days and it seems like a good place to hang out. B)
Are you the same Gavin who posts on TWO. If so I wish to say I enjoy reading your posts and im glad you have decided to join this forum.
By the way my CET prediction of 2C is looking iffy B)
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A deep & crisp & even
4.5C
S
Reassuring that your going for a below average month Steve.
By the way I know this may sound cheeky but when can we expect your winter forecast as im sure many including myself are anxious to read it.
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Im going for a December which is colder than 95 although not quiet as cold as 81 so 2.0C for me.
This month shall be dominated be outbreaks of Artic N,lys & Continental E,lys although the very first few days of Dec may start mild before the N,lys arrive.
You didn't really expect me to say anything else did you
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There must be a faultline in the area because I believe the same was said last year and the year before.
A cursory glance through my Introduction to Rampnomics 49th edition by Will B. Snow suggests this is possibly due to heightened forecasting movements in the media and meterological community at this time of year which results in a release of ramp. Similar minor events may be expected to reoccur every November until 2011 when, due to a mysterious 16 year rule, there is a much larger ramp.
Ironic though isn't it how excited the members of this forum have become at the prospects of an E,ly especially after the E,ly outbreaks during Dec/Feb these past few winters.
Didn't some say the E,lys in winter were extinct when I first joined this forum :o
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Thanks The Iceman
Your LRW for Europe and the UK was one of thew most detailed and interesting reads that I have had in a long time. Like Steve Murray, GP and others you back your reasoning with facts.
I would love for you to post again. nw could certainly do with people like you with such knowledge and reasoned views.
Well done
I agree John and this is what I love about these types of forecast's that the likes of GP,SM, Iceman do. Many of us not only want to discuss the weather but want to learn abit more and these forecasts really help us do that.
The type of forecasts I now hate are those that say "wait until Jan" which is usually followed by a wink and no explaination as to why they are predicting this. What I find ironic is I used to make such forecasts :lol:
.Nowadays I prefer to use my internet time on reading and understanding meteorology rather than posting forecasts!
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I'm fairly sure it was far more accurate in his own mind than it was by any other assessment.
I don't remember his forecast being very accurate
.Personally I feel ken would be better off popping to Homebase than looking at the moon for his forecasts. Speaking of which I may use B&Q this year for my forecasts and use some expensive wallpaper so when my forecast goes pearshaped I can hang it on the wall :lol:
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Welcome back. I may not say much in these threads but I enjoy reading them.
Same here. Im delighted to see the return of this thread.
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Great thread Mr Data.
The winter of 78/79 was probably my first memory of snowfall as I was 8 years old. What I do remember vivdly is the snow drifts which were unbelievable. I especially remember a weather warning on the TV saying blizzards on the way that evening and I remember how me & my brothers looked out the window from that moment onwards.
It is the snowfalls of 78/79/81 which got me hooked on the weather.
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I have to agree with Dawlish about the ensembles.
As we all know +144 is about the limit of the reliability of the models although this can vary between +72 to +204 depending on the current synoptics. So what I personally do is just look at the ensembles upto +144 because like Dawlish correctly says if the control run is showing wildly different synoptics in FI on each subsequent runs then as a forecast tool the ensembles are useless because these to would show huge variations. The problem again is the Chaos theory which is why these supercomputers struggle predicting beyond 7days. One of the reasons for these ensembles is to actually take into account the Chaos theory by changing the starting points and then to see if the same pattern emerges. Unfortunately IMO all these ensembles do is cause greater confusion if you want to know what is going to happen in FI because you only need to look at the SLP ensembles for +276 for example to see the wildly different synoptics.
Like I say alot depends on the current synoptics as to where FI begins so sometimes I only look at the control/ensembles upto +72 and other times it can be +204. I will admit to go looking for E,lys at +384 come winter time :lol:
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Nothing surprises me anymore with regards to how the media handle our weather.
It doesn't matter if they are talking about big freezes or floods i.e Boscastle their information is often incorrect. Remember how Boscastle & the Tornado in Birmingham was blamed on GW which of course is total rubbish.
The media seem to have taken an OTT American approach to presenting our weather , but the difference is the US do have extreme weather worth reporting yet our climate is tame in comparison. Note how in winter if 3inches of snow has fallen how the newspapers will have headlines like "Blizzards sweep UK" GMTV will have reporters all over the country showing footage of this snowfall! and they always say "Worse is yet to come" even if the forecasts say the opposite. <_<
The Met Office are just as bad IMO because you can guarantee this winter when scattered snow showers are predicted they will issue severe weather warnings!. The problem with this is the general public will start to ignore these warnings and when a proper snow event occurs (not if but when!) the public will get caught out due to the many false alarms previously.
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There would of been serious trouble if SF had excluded Peterborough (the capital of E,lys) from his list
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I'm a bit confused, assuming for a moment this played out, - how can -NAO and southerly tracking jet... plus a Bartlett arise? :lol:
Tamara
EDIT
GP has clarified!
The Bartlett could arise from all the hot air from Dawlish & WIB :lol: :lol:
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Do you still draw up charts on your wallpaper?
:lol:
But you're right; re trend to cold history has shown you have been so far ahead of the curve not even your dust cloud is visible.
Blow on, winter 2006/7.
No I don't bother so much these days with the wallpaper or forecasting for that matter. After all those heated debate's on this forum I prefer just to look at the model's and chip in now and then and generally keep a lower profile.
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Well even allowing for ramping only a few got carried away. Of course the beast from the east caught us all out when that went pair shaped at the 90Th hour.
I tell you what makes me laugh when I joined this forum many told me the synoptics that bring the E,ly's are extinct in this even larger teapot era and are unachieveable, and yet today nearly every post I read is talking about E,lys. :lol:
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I just wanted to let you know that due to recent comment's by certain poster's that GW is responsible for our lack of cold winter's and how GW is making the chance of a colder winter becoming rarer each passing year I shall be making a rather lengthy post in a few days time to prove GW isn't solely responsible.
Anyone who has read my recent post's will know that I have argued that other factor's have been also responsible and I will also illustrate how our recent so called warm E,ly's actually occured in the past. I shall also post chart's illustrating/explaining why our winter's were so mild during the 80's/90's and will also try and explain what the difference is between a classic freeze like 87 is in comparison to a cold spell like Dec 05.
:unsure: 
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The cold spell
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I especially love your first pic Tamara the orange glow from the streetlamp lighting up the snowfall is magical.