TEITS
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do please assure me that you have not, secretly, been dating EITS? lol!
Damn tamara our secret is out
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On the subject of snow does anyone remember the dumping wales and the midlands got in december 2000? or is it just me I remember we had 4 inches overnight and then we had high pressure for about 5 days which led to night time temps of about -10 and the snow staying for about a week Did this affect any other areas?
You mean this then
A very notable cold spell with minima being -15C in places and snowfall being 25cm in places
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Hello everyone before I start I wish to make a few comments about my forecast.
Last year after I posted my Jan forecast quiet a few heated debates occurred with regards to how I do my LRF’s. So what I wish to do is explain exactly how I make a LRF and what methods I use.
Here are the methods used.
(1) Models mainly the ECM/UKMO/GFS
(2) SST’s
(3) Pattern matching
(4) Previous weather patterns
(5) Wallpaper method.
How I use these methods.
For Week 1 the method is always using the model outputs for the reason that up to +144 the reliability of these models is superb.
Week 2 comprises 2 different methods, the reliability of models does tend to be rather unreliable at this timeframe and although the GFS can pick up trends it isn’t always to be trusted. So for week 2 I use a combination of model output and the wallpaper method which I shall explain later.
Week 3 the methods are pattern matching, wallpaper method.
Week 4 the same as week 3
Beyond this is a combination of SST’s, pattern matching, previous weather patterns for the last 12 months, wallpaper method.
The wallpaper method I feel is my favourite tool for making a LRF, the models simply cannot cope beyond 10 days simply due to the chaotic nature which is why various synoptic patterns emerge within F.I..
So what I do is try and spot where the models are going wrong and usually beyond +144 I draw my own synoptic charts on the wallpaper hence how I come to my conclusions for week 2 and beyond. This may sound a rather crude way of forecasting but in my opinion forecasting instinct is just as good as using any models at this range.
Forecasting Instinct is different to the rather offensive term of hope casting as I will only draw the pressure patterns of what I believe will happen than rather what I hope will happen.
So here is my view for this December and I shall give you my views as to what may happen for the rest of the winter.
December Forecast
Week 1 December 1st - 8th
Summary unsettled start, turning cooler then cold possibly very cold & wintry later.
A very unsettled start to the month as low pressure to the NW tracks SE across the country. Many areas are going to be affected but especially to the S and W where large rainfall amounts and strong winds are likely. The temperatures are likely to be around 8C across the UK although temps are likely to be a few degress cooler towards the N, it is not going to be as mild as the BBC suggest but just less cold than what we have experienced lately.
As we progress through the week the LP moving SE will introduce a NE,ly as pressure rises to our NW, this is expected to happen around the 4/5th Dec. Now before anyone gets excited at the prospect of a NE,ly this isn’t going to bring any wintry weather as the airflow from the NE isn’t cold enough. What we are likely to see around the 4th -8th is cooler temps being around 4C in Scotland to 6C in the S with plenty of cloud which should prevent any frost from forming overnight, there may well be showery activity for E areas but overall I expect a rather gloomy spell for the end of the first week.
Week 2 9th - 16th
This period is what excites me the most and could be the start of our winter.
The HP to the NW is likely to topple as LP becomes centred over Iceland and this will bring a shortlived 24/36hr spell of mild W,ly winds, however I expect the Azores HP to ridge N and link with HP over Greenland which will push the LP over Iceland SE across Scandinavia which will introduce a colder NW,ly airflow.
I expect the orientation of the block to our W to tilt to a more SW/NE direction thus swinging the airflow from a NW to a N/NNE, so by around the 13/14th Dec a much colder spell should of arrived bringing heavy snow showers to many N/E areas which could move well inland especially if the winds do veer more to a NNE/NE,ly. The temps are likely to be below average in some parts especially the N/E. At the end of this period I expect pressure to rise over Scandinavia as the trough continues to move SE.
Week 3 17th - 23rd
Around this period im expecting a change as the Scandinavia HP will intensify and will start to introduce a more E,ly airstream. This will bring a settled , but very cold period from between the 17th -20th with some very harsh frosts at night. Around the 20th the Scandi HP will drift further N and link with a developing Greenland HP. The result of this will be an increase of snow showers for E areas which could bring some significant snow at times. If this isn’t wintry enough it could get worse!! As the Scandi Hp drifts further N there is the chance of LP system moving into SW areas which could bring blizzards to many SW regions but as the block to our N will remain intact the LP system will not make any advance on the rest of the UK and will eventually be pushed away so this is really a SW event.
Week 4 24th - 31st
The all important period!!
Yes IMO it will be a white xmas for many places although opposite to last year it will be the E/NE/SE rather than the N/W that see any snow falling this year.
What is likely to occur is we shall lose the link with the Scandi HP and see the GH ridging S which will introduce a bitterly cold N,ly drift and because of this the sheer contrast between the air temps and sea temps this will result in massive instability bringing very heavy snow showers to the areas mentioned especially Xmas Day/Boxing day.
For the period after Xmas the whole form of N blocking will change yet again as we see the GH ridging E and linking again with another developing HP cell over Scandinavia with the prospects of another LP moving into the S bringing another blast of E,lys which could bring blizzards to many S areas for the end of the month.
The temps for Dec are likely to be well below average, Rainfall is rather difficult as some areas could be below average with some possibly being above especially in E areas.
It is rather difficult to be exact on synoptic patterns this far out but the theme of alternating N/NE/E is very possible IMO.
Jan/Feb trends.
Im not going to even try and give a weekly detailed synoptic forecast for this period as I would rather give the trends as I feel any detail is impossible.
Let’s firstly having a look at the current SST anomalies chart.
What does this mean? to be honest I don’t have a clue im just trying to be intelligent and pretend im Steve M or Glacier point!.
Seriously though much has been made of the forecasted negative NAO, looking at these charts the +VE anomalies over the SW area of the Atlantic, -VE anomalies to the N and E of Iceland, +VE anomalies to the E of Greenland are all indicative of a -VE NAO (I think!).
So how does a -VE NAO affect our winter?.
Well let’s have a look at how a positve NAO affects our weather firstly and you will see this is a common pattern over recent years.
When the Icelandic LP/Azores HP are strong the atmospheric gradient between the two is strong thus bringing endless mild W,SW flow (see chart below and look at the Jet Stream position) which prevents any kind of blocking to form which is why 48hr topplers are the only kind of cold weather we have seen in recent winters.
A negative NAO
A negative NAO is what you would expect the complete opposite of what I have described above a weaker Icelandic LP which is usually further SW from Iceland and a weak Azores HP enables blocking to occur far more frequently (see chart above and look at the Jet stream position). Note how a negative NAO can bring much colder weather to the NE of America see trough on chart.
Many organisations are forecasting a negative NAO and with the current synoptic trends shown on the models this period should prove fasinating. I would like to add that the synoptics I expect over December this could reduce the -VE anomalies even further which if this was the case further cold blasts could well have more potency.
Some more pics of a Postive and negative NAO.
Positive NAO
Negative NAO
January Trends.
Summary very cold, wintry, blizzards at times.
This month is when I expect the winter to be at it’s most severe.
N blocking will feature frequently in the synoptics with High pressure at times extending from New Foundland all the way across to Russia. The result of this will be a mainly E,ly dominated month bringing very low temps and frequent snowfalls especially to the E. At times I expect Low Pressure to try and move into the SW which will bring gale force E,ly winds and heavy snow (blizzards) especially to the Midlands/Wales/E Anglia. The southern counties of England will at first see snowfall but as the LP moves further N the snow is likely to turn to rain and a thaw will result. The LP system will then try and move a little further N so even the Midlands/Wales/E anglia could see less cold temps and a thaw. The N of England/Scotland should remain very cold and dry except for a few snow showers towards the E. I expect the N blocking to reassert itself and push the LP back S and as this does so the colder air will spread S bringing further snowfall to S areas. Once this happens we will all be in the very colder E,ly airstream.
I expect this pattern to repeat itself a few times during this month so although Scotland/N England will remain very cold with a few snow showers further S very severe conditions could result.
Temps well below average, rainfall well below average for N England/Scotland , around average or slightly below for S areas although some E areas could be above!.
February trends
Summary very cold settled at first, turning milder and unsettled later.
This month I expect we shall lose the blocking to our N and instead HP will be centred very close or directly over the UK bringing sunny, dry, cold weather. If the synoptic pattern of Jan emerges then some very low minima could result due to deep snow cover. As we move into mid month I expect the HP to drift SE and a more zonal flow will emerge bringing much milder W/SW,lys and because of this very unsettled weather with rain at times as the atlantic reawakens.
Temps average, rainfall average
Summary of the winter 05/06.
Overall a very cold and at times wintry winter, although this isn’t going to be quiet another 62/63 (that’s coming next winter!) this will be colder with greater snowfall than 95/96 so more akin to our past winters 78/79, 81/82. Im pretty sure the younger generation of this board are going to wonder what has hit them and heavens knows what GMTV are going to make of this winter.
Know doubt this forecast may be completely wrong by the first week of Dec! but I’ve thoroughly enjoyed making this LRF and at the end of the day this is what it’s all about.
I promise I shall not be posting any updates to this forecast and if it goes wrong then fair enough. Im saying this as I was a little naughtly last year with my LRF when I kept on referring to the E,ly so I have learn’t from my mistakes.
I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed putting it together.
Regards
Oops I forgot the SST anomalie chart
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Will the rest of the winter follow 62/63 , I sense a case of deja vu here!
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A superb guide there John thanks for taking the time to post this, im sure we shall all find this guide very helpful and useful.
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Stunning Pics thundery, I love the mammatus cloud formation.
Great pic of a cumulonimbus calvus possibly developing into a incus.
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Sorry for late entry but only just noticed the comp.
Here are the pics of the Storm that developed a tornado taken from my flat in Peterborough on the 28th July at 4.45pm.
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Can't wait for the Winter'ympics to begin!!!!!!! :lol: :o
p.s. Looking forward to all the regular faces that were about last winter to re-appear this winter....
p.p.s. Lastly. I think the most we had on one thread was around 130? See if we can beat that this year
p.p.p.s. You know it's good when you refresh the page and about 10 posts have already been posted!!!
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Can you imagine what this forum would be like if another 47,63,81 occured
All I can say is get your sledges ready as I think the Big One is going to happen and if this isn't enough our winters for the next few years should be special also!!
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Yep-Shawbury is just down the road from me(RAF Base) We had central heating installed at home that winter! They just finished testing it and the snow had just started!! Hate to think what it would have been like if we didn't have it!!!!
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Your lucky we never had any Central Heating!! my parents tell me we use to sleep in our coats at the time :lol:
Here is a link for some info on Dec 1981, note the tornado outbreak in E Anglia in November (105!!)
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We may never see another 62/63 but could we see another winter like this?
It's possible I say!
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0z gives us a high pressure over us in early FI upto 1030mbs,so snshine and warm weather looks increasing likely,although no heatwave like JMA showed!
Towards the end as can be seen on Steve's chart above,we get a northerly from a decent Greenland high,that although does wane a little,it hangs about throughout the forecasted period and never really fades,although the PFJ also hangs about to the north for most of the period as well mind you causing a slight positive NAO.Still nonetheless this Greenland high helps to cool down Greenland pretty well with -10C over eastern greenland,which is a good thing as thats the side of Greenland where we want it to be cold,as most of our northerlies will come from regions close to there.
(ps,Reef,anything the Azores high can do,the Greenland can do better!
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How I wish I could draw a chart on my wallpaper like that for this winter KW.
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I remember Dec 1981/Jan 1982 vividly even though I was only 10 yrs old.
The feature of the cold spell that I remember wasn't just the snowfall but the very low temps. Dec 14th 1981 the Max never reached any higher than around -14C in some area of England aswell as Scotland and the following Min temp dropped to -26C in Shawbury Shropshire!
I remember going outside in the freezing fog and my hair used to turn white
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In JB's post he ( I think once I translated his post into English)
S
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Im glad you have Steve im still working my way through it!!
I must admit I don't usually like Autumn as I usually cannot wait for winter to start but this year is different and I cannot wait to watch the developments during Sep/Oct/Nov to see what kind of winter we shall have.
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Just want to say well done to you Adi that is superb and thanks for the hard work you put in.
The tornado outbreak has taught me two lessons the first being I must buy a digital camera and the second being make sure the battery is charged on Video camera because I would of loved to have captured the speed of rotation within the tornado.
A valuable lesson for all members because you just never know when one might strike!!
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The area of snow showers last night brought 7-8cm of lying snow here in Peterborough by this morning
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Im going to look into this today west is best and let you know later
I remember we had 4 inches overnight and then we had high pressure for about 5 days which led to night time temps of about -10 and the snow staying for about a week 
Did this affect any other areas?
:o 
April CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
21C maybe 7C above average but for the end of April isn't anything special at all.
Look at some of these temps since the 90's.
1990 25C in Aberdovery on the 30th, 1993 25.8C on the 30th in Scotland, 1994 25C in Cromer on the 29th April, 1996 23.8C in Weybourne (Norfolk) on the 21st, 1997 21C in Bristol on the 9th April, 1998 23.8C in Rickmansworth on the 22nd, 1999 21C in Northholt on the 1st April, 2001 21C in london on the 2nd April, 2002 25C in kensington on the 23rd, 2003 27.4C during the heatwave of Mid April!, 2004 23C in London on the 24th, 2005 22nd in London on the 30th.
In other words the temps maybe above average but when you look back at the last 15 years it is quite normal to reach such values even if it is for short period of time. So you could argue that those members who have complained about the temps are justified when you look at these figures!!