TEITS

Another day and still none the wiser but I do believe the trend is increasing towards more snowfall this weekend than the models indicated 24hrs ago. I feel at this point it remains Kent, Sussex, London who are in the sweet spot and maybe even Essex, Suffolk. Further N&W you go the lighter any snow showers will be. For locations such as Lincs Norfolk, Cambs we're going to need to see a shift N of around 100 miles. Maybe even this weekend the snow will become more organised and prolonged for the SE rather than showery. I would also like to take this opportunity to apologise to Ian F and anyone else for that matter with some of my negative views recently on the Met O forecasts. On reflection I have been too harsh on them for which I sincerely apologise.

How on earth anyone can try and predict exact shower activity for the end of the week considering its Monday is utterly beyond me. You might aswell hang some seaweed outside! If the output remains unchanged I am willing to put my instincts of living in E Anglia all my life with a good knowledge of E,lys against any scientific method. Im not saying widespread snow showers across the UK are likely but localised areas of E Anglia/SE will see more than some are suggesting.

The problem with this thread happens every winter. If a model run suggests heavy snow and the likes of me or Steve M post the links this doesn't mean we are saying it will verify. What we are simply doing is highlighting the current run. Unfortunately what then happens is if the model output downgrades we get the usual rubbish of members accusing others of ramping or over hyping. Every post I make always states "based on current output". Back to the output and what everyone is forgetting is as the LP tracks E along the Med this will pull in a more convective ENE/NE,ly.

What you mean by the forecast of a front approaching the SW this weekend and moving N? I disagreed many days ago and there is no sign of this occurring in the model output and to be honest it never did look likely. Little early to be presuming the Met O are correct for this week/weekend. Lets wait and see if Kent only see a few flurries. If the output remains the same then that will be an incorrect forecast for Kent!

Very pleased with the output with good agreement at +120 with regards to the extent of the cold E,ly flow. Surprisingly little has changed in my outlook since I posted this a few days ago. So Thurs/Fri is likely to see light snow flurries in mainly E Anglia/SE but during Friday including Saturday these will become heavier across these parts and also lighter snow showers will develop further N and spread further inland. This is as a result of the flow becoming ENE,ly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png These more widespread and heavier showers will continue into Sunday but what you may find is the temps may rise by about 1-2C because of the flow becoming more of a NE,ly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png Let me put it this way if the current output remains unchanged I would be staggered if locations such as Kent, Essex only see light flurries and remain mostly dry!!

Neither. I have read all the comments this evening about predicted temps and snow and to be honest at this stage nobody is right. We are still on the cusp of the model output that could change from no snow to little snow to prolonged heavy snowfalls. What some forget is it only requires a relatively small shift of the output to change the outlook. Finally I will add that I still have a video of a BBC regional forecast that I recorded back in Dec 2005. The forecast just 48hrs out suggested max temps of 4C with a few wintry showers. The reality was 10cm of snowfall and max temps of -4C!

Saying the GFS is rubbish is too simplistic. I find at times the GFS can be very good especially during certain weather patterns i.e zonal but it also has its flaws. This winter the weaknesses of the GFS has been highlighted due to our weather patterns and this was especially true during the Jan cold spell. So really its little point using verification stats and looking at the performance of the GFS globally because we are referring to the UK and certain weather patterns. Could I live without the GFS? Most certainly and to be honest after all these years of model watching its been the GFS that has caused more ups and downs than other models.

Attack from the SW has been pretty much none existant these past few days. I will add its going to be difficult to maintain any snow cover due to the time of year regardless of temps. For this to happen locations are going to need plenty of cloud cover and little sunshine. Personally im not bothered about days of lying snow or how prolonged this cold spell could be. I would be content with a few days of snow showers and anything else is a bonus.

That is what is pleasing me this most about the 12Zs so far. I really did fear the worst this morning but the slide S has halted. The best aspect of the ECM +144 chart is the E,ly flow now has a N,ly element to it which would spread those showers much further inland. A NE/ENE,ly has always been the best wind direction for the UK generally.

Delighted with the 12Zs Brilliant +144 from the ECM which would see snow showers spreading well inland, not just the SE! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Much better NOGAPS. Shame its this model showing this though but its what we want to see.

I think we need to be clear about this. What the models are showing today compared to recent days is far less convective potential and I still remain firm that the Met O were underestimating the amount of convection based on output over the last few days. However todays output fits in with the Met O forecast more accurately in my opinion and it seems they expected a shift S. So before members start accusing other members of hyping things up, lets remember model output does change and we can only call it as we see it.

Yep I agree. However like I keep saying it isn't until the end of the week into the weekend when snow showers could become heavier and more widespread. My fear though is if whats been predicted at +144 also trends S! The biggest problem which has been consistent throughout is the HP is centred around Scotland. Ideally for the UK we want this to be centred towards Iceland. That is one hell of a shift N we need to see and unlikely now. So this isn't going to be a classic E,ly but enough interest for those in the SE and E Anglia and especially for members in Kent.

So true. Not me though because I never understand the point of chasing heatwaves that only make you feel uncomfortable and prevent you from sleeping. Give me model output that suggests sunshine and temps of 25C any day. On a different note im glad to see even locations such as the W Midlands and Wales are now predicted to see snow flurries on Thursday by the Met O. Like I said though if the current output is correct then the instability will increase towards the weekend as LP transfers to the Med.

Mixed feelings this morning. Whilst the outlook I posted last night appears unchanged i.e snow showers light at first, increasing towards weekend, im aware of past disappointments and the general downgrade of convective potential over these past 24hrs. What I have noticed over these years is E,lys either completely disappear from the output or they downgrade. The usual downgrade is the depth of cold, strength of E,ly flow, amount of convection. So my fear is come Mon/Tues the general pattern has shifted further S so that even locations such as E Anglia/SE miss out. On a more positive note we could yet see a shift N and like Nick S says only a shift of 100miles would make a difference, even better if it was around 300miles N. I would also like to correct an error made my a member saying no streamers are indicated. Let me tell you streamers are a localised feature and the models never pick up on these until 24hrs away at least. The Feb 2009 Thames streamer wasn't modelled until Sunday lunchtime and the streamer arrived 5hrs later. I believe the famous Dec 2010 streamer across Lincs, Yorks wasn't modelled until very near the event.

Isn't that when N Ireland got absolutely nailed with heavy snowfall which was totally unexpected? Sorry I was thinking of another occasion which occurred a few years earlier.

Indeed 2 days ago but since then its looked very unlikely for the period in question. Why though has some continued to suggest this is a possibility? Never understand why a bunch of amateurs have yet again been 24/48hrs ahead of others, happens every winter!

Slightly clearer picture emerging. Around Wednesday is when light snow flurries could begin to develop across E parts especially later on into Thursday morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png The real interest though begins towards the latter end of the week as we see instability increase bringing heavier snow showers which could push further inland. I will also add that it was said that we might see a risk of snow into SW parts moving N. Well sorry but none of the models indicate this and to be honest they never did. Im not going to mention any names though!

Just a quickie Whilst im happy with the 12Zs I would ideally like to see a shift N of the overall pattern. We would then ideally see more members locations experiencing snowfall instead of being restricted from E Anglia to SE. The shift S & N will occur many times over the next few days but what we don't need to see is anymore shifts S. Very few of us live in the Channel Islands!

Solid from the NOGAPS aswell.

This run is going to result in even greater convection around 160 plus as the winds veer from SE to E then ENE,ly.

Well I feel your answer just illustrates the problem with the BBC/Met O forecasts. I have learn't that the models are useless when it comes to predicting convection and this is especially true with E,lys. If the output today remains unchanged then you don't even need to look at the projected precip charts from the models to know more than light snow showers will occur. The term light snow showers is only correct for Wed/Thurs but that isn't the case for the end of the week into the weekend when heavier showers would develop especially across E Anglia/SE. Again just illustrates my point of over reliance on computer models these days. Remember a recent snowfall when you stated the SW was at greatest risk and I disagreed. Well the reality was the SW actually experienced mild temps whilst others enjoyed snowfall. Just add im not having a go at you but I get frustrated at times because forecasting instinct has disappeared due to this over dependance on forecast models.

Well im glad my cat woke me up early again as the models this morning are just superb. The real highlight is the UKMO although im not surprised because like I said last night it seemed out of kilter with the rest of the output. So at the moment and I emphasize at the moment the outlook consists of this. Arrival of E,ly with convective potential is around Wednesday. The exact timing will change but at the moment light snow showers are expected but could also develop inland due to the strength of the sun as the GFS has been highlighting. Note how the shower activity retreats towards the coast after dusk. http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1081.png As we progress through the week the shower activity is expected to increase especially towards the weekend as we see LP going underneath the block increasing the E,ly flow resulting in greater inland penetration. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif The E,ly flow could veer towards a NE or ENE,ly during Sunday as highlighted by the ECM. This has been a trend on many runs including the GFS. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

I shall finally add that in my opinion the UKMO is wrong and im totally amazed the fax charts back this. If you take a mean of all todays outputs from every model then at +120/+144 the UKMO is too far S with the position of the HP and the pool of cold air. My prediction for tomorrow is the UKMO will be further N tomorrow and as a consequence the Met O forecast will be changed from wintry showers to snow showers pushing inland.

Far to much emphasis can be placed on the 850s at times. Since I joined this forum I have seen uppers as cold as -13C before. However the heaviest snowfall I have seen in the past 15 years occurred when 7 inches of snow fell in 4hrs when upper temps were at -2C and this occurred during Feb 2009. I will add I wouldn't worry about the GFS predicted 2m temps. These can be way off at times and sometimes as much as 4C. Suppose the 18Z is right with its prediction of temps of 4C. Now under prolonged spells of sunshine that might be correct but under cloud cover and shower activity those temps would be around 0C instead. A good example is Dec 2009 when the GFS predicted max temps of 1C but the reality was -4C!