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TEITS

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  1. TEITS
    Spot on. Seems at the moment that a blast from the N will occur around the +168 to +192 timeframe. Thereafter the colder airmass moves E and we have a temporary respite. However the potential from around +300 of it becoming even colder with E,lys via LP coming up from the S and the blocking to the NW. So potentially the models over the next few days could show some quiet severe snow events. Whether this will occur is a different matter because even im sick of using the word "potentially"!!
  2. TEITS
    Radar really coming alive now, dare I say a Wash Streamer lol. Currently have moderate snow falling rather than those silly flurries and looking at the radar im expecting a covering over the next hour or so, maybe even a few cm. A very interesting evening ahead for me From a forecasting perspective very pleased with how its gone today. I said last night the focus of showers would be NE England and then Lincs, E Anglia with the shower activity weakening in the SE.
  3. TEITS
    Looking great for the Wash area with some heavier snow showers developing.
  4. TEITS
    Looking at the recent radar and I feel a good lesson is to be learn't here. The past 7 days we have heard comments such as "too dry", "high pressure will prevent convection", even unpleasant comments such as "egg on the face to those predicting snow showers". Well if you look at the radar its actually NE England that is seeing the most snowfall. So the lesson to be learn't is when it comes to convection from an E,ly you're actually better off using local knowledge of what certain synoptics bring you than relying on the models. I must admit I was expecting more in the SE rather than the NE but the point is convection has indeed occurred. Im sure some members are wiping snow off their faces this morning rather than egg! If I had to get off the fence I feel the chances of a N,ly are dwindling around the +168 to +240 period. I actually think the chance of an E,ly is increasing in distant FI but be warned this could easily become a S,ly instead. Many dismiss the GFS and rightly so at times. However due to the pattern being predicted I actually support the GFS over the ECM.
  5. TEITS
    Although I haven't posted much recently I have been following the models and to be honest I have that sense of apathy again when discussing the output. This is because im finding the uncertainty so great its pointless discussing the output in detail. Based on recent outputs over the past 24hrs my location in the medium range, i.e +192 beyond, could see anything from a a cold N,ly, a blizzard thanks to LP to our S moving ENE, a bitter E,ly, or even a very mild S,ly. The ensembles for my location say it all. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130223/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png
  6. TEITS
    Yes mate its looking good for us later tonight into tomorrow. What I find ironic is when we were following this E,ly much of the focus was for the SE to see the most snow but it appears NE England is and will be in the sweet zone. Note the trough clearing our location tomorrow. The area you highlighted is the trough.
  7. TEITS
    See the area across the N Sea this is all heading for NE England, Lincs, E Anglia later on. Note how the Sat indicates rather more in the way of convection. I think tomorrow the greatest potential is the areas I mention whereas the SE will see very little if any snowfall.
  8. TEITS
    Might not amount to anything but I finding the latest Sat pic in the N sea far more interesting which appears to be heading for Norfolk, Lincs.
  9. TEITS
    A far too simplistic way of describing a N,ly. For example a typical N,ly toppler is significantly different compared to the N,ly in say Dec 2009, 2010. Same with E,lys, the current E,ly is vastly different to the one in 1987. Anyway like I said yesterday if the output continues then conditions in Scotland could be very different to S England. I remain unconvinced the cold from the N will be unable to penetrate any further S than say around the N midlands. I would love to be wrong though. Classic example of the madness of March weather. I mentioned nocturnal snowfall and here is a good example. Note temps of 7C across the S during the day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png Snow at night though! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2404.png
  10. TEITS
    Whilst the focus has been on the Thames maybe its the Wash that some of us should keep an eye on. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/21/basis18/ukuk/prty/13022212_2118.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/21/basis18/ukuk/prty/13022312_2118.gif Far more evidence from the above suggests its the Wash rather than the Thames that could see more in the way of snow.
  11. TEITS
    I can think of other names for it but I won't post it on here! I did hear of one snowflake falling somewhere near the Thames so this must be the Thames Streamer in action.
  12. TEITS
    The output in FI is reminding me a bit of Dec 2010 when the models intially had the pattern too far W which resulted in massive arguments on this thread, im sure Nick Sussex remembers this. A few things that stick out on the model output at the moment and I shall list them. 1. A North-South divide is quiet possible here with higher elevations in Scotland experiencing heavy snow and ice days with S England experiencing much milder temps of 7 or 8C. 2. Nocturnal snowfall. Quiet plausible to see max temps of 7C during spells of sunshine but during the overnight period a heavy snowfall followed by a quick thaw and temps back to 7C under sunshine. 3. Incredible convection across N parts, especially Scotland. We all know a very cold N,ly can bring heavy convective showers but the addition of the stronger sunshine could result in even heavier convection. The above is really why I really love early March because you can have everything but the kitchen sink thrown in.
  13. TEITS
    I bet some members in Scotland and N England are delighted with the output this morning. Further S and I continue to believe we're going to need to see a shift E. If this was Dec or Jan I wouldn't be saying this but due to the time of year you need a direct hit with the coldest upper temps. If the output remains the same then I can see some crazy weather coming up. Back to the E,ly and Ian Fergusson covers the E,ly this weekend excellently. The predicted amounts he suggests seem spot on and the only thing I will add is some locations may see more than 3cm. I have found in these situations that if some locations are under a constant stream of light snow showers then snow accumulations can mount up. I remember Dec 2005 where a majority in my region missed the snow and yet I witnessed 10cm because of a steady stream of light snow showers. However due to the time of year accumulations are less likely during daylight hrs. Im expecting the snow showers to arrive late this evening by the way across Lincs, E Anglia,SE.
  14. TEITS
    Just been looking at the max temps today and comparing to the GFS. I wonder if anyone can tell me what the BBC were predicting on their weekly forecast on Sunday for today. Only managed 2C when the GFS was predicting 4C. This is much lower than I was anticipating. Back to the current output and whilst the focus has been on the SE the latest +72 fax charts suggest the risk is further N!
  15. TEITS
    Yes I think there will a GH. However the big question is how will this impact the UK and how far S will the Arctic blast from the N push S. I mentioned yesterday the ensembles were showing a 20C difference. Now at the moment it was only the 18Z GFS showing the potential but this has now been followed by the 0Z GFS and the ECM. At the moment there probably isn't enough evidence to get excited but again this could depend on your location. With the set up being currently shown its quiet plausible that Scotland is seeing widespread heavy snow and ice days whilst the S is very mild.
  16. TEITS
    Good to see some snow showers finally appearing into E Anglia on the NAE. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/20/basis06/ukuk/prty/13022206_2006.gif
  17. TEITS
    Yep and if the trend continues a clash between the two would result in some very exciting potential. Absolutely no idea where this would occur. Having said this I would still be much more excited at the model output if I lived in N England and even more if I lived in Scotland. Unless we see a shift E then its going to be difficult to get the Arctic blast to push into S England.
  18. TEITS
    So the ECM now follows the GFS 18Z, otherwise known as the pub run, which I hasten to add suggested the same on the previous night. If I lived in Scotland/N England I would be very excited at the potential from these runs but further S it would remain uncertain how far S the much colder arctic blast would penetrate. Some crazy cold ensembles being shown with -15C for March. I would wonder what the record is for the coldest upper temps in March. http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png Back to the E,ly and im still annoyed at this has downgraded over many days. Still remains a chance that locations such as E Anglia/SE could see a few cm on Saturday and maybe slightly more if some lucky location sees a constant band of light snow. Absolutely no chance of 20-30cm being recorded. The pressure is too high, time of year all go against such snowfalls. This is why Dec 2010 was such a special cold spell and why locations such as Lincs recorded 45cm of snow. We had very cold upper temps spreading across a relatively warm sea with HP being further N. Don't forget the N Sea is much warmer in early Dec compared to late Feb.
  19. TEITS
    Simple look below and you will see why they are referred to as streamers! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Snowband_anim.gif
  20. TEITS
    Thames Streamer is the most over used word on this forum along with members describing a typical UK thunderstorm as a supercell or Mesocyclone in the summer. Have you noticed how the Wash streamer rarely gets mentioned on this forum. Thats because I don't consider a few showers coming through the Wash a streamer. I have experienced a few Wash streamers in my time but what makes them different to your typical snow showers is how localised the snowfall can be. For example I remember a streamer in the 1990s where Peterborough had nearly a foot of snow and yet to the E,S,W of Peterborough they hardly had any snow. Thats because this streamer was very heavy and yet within a very defined area. Sorry for the rant but one thing that really annoys me in winter is how members will even refer to a Thames Streamer when a solitary snow showers gets anywhere near the Thames!
  21. TEITS
    Personally I feel discussing the medium range just as futile as looking at convective potential this week. A difference of 20C for the 1st March on the Aberdeen ensembles. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130219/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png This isn't just one showing -10C uppers either with a clear split developing. If ever there was a time the ensemble mean is worthless then this is it!
  22. TEITS
    Well it seems Saturday is going to be the main day when snow showers are most extensive. The GFS continues to suggest quiet a wide area of the UK being affected albeit only light showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1083.gif However you have to use some instinct in interpreting the chart above rather than taking it at face value. Although the GFS indicates similar amounts for everyone, you would find E areas would see heavier precip compared to the W. As Saturday is still +100hrs away we still have time to see an improvement. This cold spell isn't going to bring heavy snowfalls but the output could upgrade for E/SE to bring say 5-10cm of snowfall rather than a dusting. Also worth mentioning that locations such as Wales, W Midlands could see some very low min temps.
  23. TEITS
    The GFS runs today have highlighted why I really like early March. You can technically have such mild temps to be comfortable going outside without a coat and yet still see ice days with heavy snow. Tell you what though I would love to see a bitter airmass like below to hit the UK from the E instead of the N. http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3722.png
  24. TEITS
    Anyone fancy another shot of cold or will we be sick and chasing cold spells by then and hoping for warmth? Impressive cold for the time of year.
  25. TEITS
    Too much of a N,ly vector to the E,ly to bring a Thames Streamer on that chart. However what it does show is showers increasing on the ENE,ly or even NE,ly flow.
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