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TEITS

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  1. TEITS
    Im actually disappointed with the output and have been these past few days. For obvious reasons snowfall is becoming more unlikely but a flow from the E regardless of upper temps is going to result in cold temps. This is especially true this year due to the below average SSTs across the N Sea. http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif Amazing actually looking at the vast number of cold anomalies around the world. Personally I would love a spell of weather with temps of around 15C but this does not look like happening anytime soon!
  2. TEITS
    No not at the moment, Looking at the radar it appears between 5.30am to 7.00 we had more heavy snow. Rather surprised we had this to be honest as I expected everything to fizzle out in the early hrs.
  3. TEITS
    23cm of lying snow at Peterboroughs official weather station. Pretty impressive for late March.
  4. TEITS
    This is now becoming very exciting. Good covering outside including the roads and the snow is becoming heavier. The radar suggests its going to become even heavier this evening for my location. If this goes to plan then by around midnight I should have a deep covering.
  5. TEITS
    Chucking it down here and now beginning to even settle on the roads. Looking excellent for those in the N of this region tonight.
  6. TEITS
    I would say further N because there is a large dry gap around Northampton/MK.
  7. TEITS
    What has been incredible for my location this winter is the vast amount of days with snow falling and lying. I can remember winters when I didn't even see a snowflake. When you look back at Feb 2009, Dec 2009, Nov/Dec 2010, Feb 2012, and now 2013 we have done very well. The only thing missing is a good old fashioned 1980s style blizzard.
  8. TEITS
    Had moderate snow here all morning but now its becoming much heavier. Looking at the radar and forecast models its seems much more to come for my location and should last well into the night.
  9. TEITS
    Moderate snow now falling here.
  10. TEITS
    I would ignore the NAE. Check the radar at 9am compared to the NAE prediction. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/22/basis06/ukuk/prec/13032209_2206.gif Compare with the more accurate GFS. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs033.gif How I expect today to pan out is this. Over much of Wales, W Midlands we shall see the precip largely fade away towards lunchtime and this could include N England. However towards later afternoon and evening snow will become more widespread and heavier across N England, Wales, Midlands especially overnight. The snow will also begin to extend E especially late into the night. During tomorrow it will dry up in N England but further spells of snow are likely especially across E Midlands into W parts of E Anglia before slowly fading away during the day. So basically the main event is still to come especially overnight!
  11. TEITS
    I would be amazed if 75cm of snow accumulated unless Ian is referring to the highest of ground. For the UK to experience such heavy snowfalls not only would huge precip amounts be required but also the snow ratio would need to be conducive. At the moment my own feeling is between 20-30cm on higher ground, 10cm lower levels.
  12. TEITS
    Looking very good for the E Midlands/ E Anglia on Saturday. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs543.gif What is apparent on this run is how the front becomes stationary and gradually weakens across the Midlands which obviously suggests prolonged snowfall. This combined with the timing of when this falls i.e overnight could result in significant accumulations come Saturday morning. Just add im delighted for those members in the W Midlands/NW England who often miss out.
  13. TEITS
    I feel some are misreading the situation. Based on the current output its too vague saying N England is going to be hit because as I constantly keep saying it isn't just how far N the precip manages to get but E. So with this in mind locations such as NW England will see far more precip than say NE England who at the moment appear to see very little. The sweet zone continues to look like NE Wales, W Midlands, NW England (Maybe central and N Midlands. This risk extending further S & E during Friday night into Saturday.
  14. TEITS
    Are you sure about that Mushy! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs604.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs608.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs602.gif
  15. TEITS
    If the fax charts are right which in my opinion are subject to change then some locations are going to get battered! First occluded front moves in and brings snow to N England and possibly N Wales, Midlands. Becomes stationary and weakens. Another occluded front moves NE with this becoming stationary further S and is more likely to bring snow than rain for those further S. Moves back SW but probably weak by this time. What this all suggests to me is very severe conditions are possible with blizzards in places and because of the slow moving nature of the fronts then snow accumulations will cause problems. This initially for N England but even further S the rain would turn to snow.
  16. TEITS
    I feel come the period in question then Derbyshire would be my N limit. When it comes to these synoptic situations it isn't just how far N the front will get but also E. This is why locations such as NE England, Humber, Lincs, E Anglia are unlikely to see great amounts of precip. I have highlighted the area below where I feel the greatest snowfall amounts will occur.
  17. TEITS
    Yep and to be honest it isn't a surprise. Interesting to watch this unfold because I am happy to put my experience of similar situations to those of say the Met O who are using the models. Like I said earlier I would be totally amazed if the snow manages to reach as far N as S Scotland. I even feel parts of S Yorks may miss out and further corrections S cannot be ruled out. I will add my fellow members in E Anglia should refrain from getting excited also because historically the precip tends to be very weak and patchy across this region.
  18. TEITS
    Must admit after looking at the ECM even a hardcore coldie such as myself is thinking "When will this cold weather eventually end"! Back to the potential snow event at the end of the week and again I really wouldn't get your hopes up if you live in N England (except NW) especially NE England. Due to the alignment of the front W areas are more likely to see the heaviest precip whereas the NE the least. I continue to feel that Wales, W Midlands, NW England are the main areas at risk of snow but like I say this risk could extend further S. We also have the added complication that this front will pivot and push S and weaken but at the same time introduce colder air. Time to post my snow maps I feel which I shall post in the relevant regionals later.
  19. TEITS
    Hope John H/Ian F isn't going to read what im about to say but I largely ignore the Met O regional forecasts along with the BBC regionals.
  20. TEITS
    Could be S also. I should of added that im not ruling any further corrections S just yet.
  21. TEITS
    Looking excellent for the W Midlands. Apart from the model output, experience from past events suggests to me this location along with N Wales will be in the firing line come the end of the week.
  22. TEITS
    The models are now coming into line with my own thoughts. I said last night the front will be aligned from around Norwich to Blackpool and I believe this will be the case. What this means in my opinion is W Midlands/N Wales,NW England are at greatest threat from snow but this threat could move S as the front weakens and retreats S. Could see some incredibly low min temps across Scotland next week. I wonder what the record is for the end of March?? Over to you Weather History. -12C into E Anglia. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1442.gif Going to have some bitterly cold SSTS across the N Sea this spring.
  23. TEITS
    As I expected the correction south of the front at +84 compared to last nights +96 fax chart. I would ignore the UKMO precip charts on the raw output because I have found these to be very poor. No chance that front will spread precip across the whole of the UK.
  24. TEITS
    I will run around naked if that front makes it that far N. Fully expect subsequent fax charts to show that front making less progress N. Come Saturday that front will be aligned Norwich to Blackpool.
  25. TEITS
    Still unconvinced of the snow risk for my location including other regions. The problem I see for E Anglia/N England is how far NE the front will progress because in my opinion the heaviest precip will be towards W areas. So at the moment I would probably place Wales/SW Midlands as the main zone where snow will fall with rain further S. Early next week becoming colder with snow showers especially across many E areas but not exclusively.
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