TEITS

A clear shift today in the models. At first it appeared like a classic breakdown of storms followed quickly by fresher W,lys. The output today suggests the low pressure makes less eastward progress so we remain under a warm, humid, unstable S,ly flow. At this stage the fresher W,lys might not arrive until early next week and this is subject to change. What is certain is a thundery breakdown is looking very likely and the long hot, dry, sunny days will vanish. However keep an eye on the models extending the warmth and storm risk though. One thing is certain though. During next week we have plenty of exciting weather coming our way and at times, especially at night, it will feel as though the UK is in a tropical rainforest!

Im actually looking forward to next week more than our current weather. The combination of heat and increasing instability is just as exciting to me as a bitter NE,ly in winter.

Temps widely between 30-32C on the ECM +144 chart and possibly as high as 34C in a few favoured locations i.e Heathrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

I think suggesting Tues is a bit early more likely Thurs/Friday for E areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1744.gif Still predicting temps widely around 31C before the storms roll in.

Must admit the breakdown is looking very likely but for me the uncertainty is the timing and how hot it will become prior to the breakdown. Having said this I wouldn't state it as a fact though because after many years of following the models you cannot make such statements especially after day 5 and beyond. Personally im not bothered either way. We are currently experiencing a fantastic heatwave and come next week the risk of storms increases, initially in the SW and then extending NE later in the week. When you have either way above or below temps a return to normal is always inevitable so my advice is enjoy what we currently have.

Sorry but I strongly disagree. The temps for the E/SE have been predicted to be much lower on Saturday for several days now and I commented about this due to the E,ly flow off the N Sea having a knock on effect on the temps. By the way I would hardly call temps still 4C above average as cool. A cool max temp in July would be around 17C.

The outlook in my eyes is very clear based on my own views and the model output. Firstly max temps next week are difficult to pin down although around 30C is widely possible. However just the slightest shift in synoptics can result in temps being much higher than that i.e mid 30s. The peak of the hot spell remains towards the latter part of the week but with it comes increased storm potential. Thereafter its pretty clear to me it will turn much cooler from the W with temps dropping to the low 20s. So plenty to look forward to because we have the wonderful combination of very high temps and increasing storm potential. Remember in these situations the hottest temps generally occur on the last day of the heatwave before the storms and cooler W,lys spread E.

I remember back in 2003 when looking at the BBC teletext outlook seeing 38C and thought it was a error. At that time I didn't think temps that high were possible in the UK. As we all know they are! Must admit I have mixed feelings about next week. Having max temps around the mid 30s is perfectly okay if I was lying on a beach in Ibiza with a few bottles of Stella and being surrounded by lovely women in bikinis. However being stuck in a city isn't as appealing.

Here is how I see things panning out over the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow we may reach 32C around London but this is looking increasingly likely to be surpassed next week when temps could hit 34/35C. However I am a little concerned because these very high temps could occur for several days next week and this could result in health issues for the elderly. The peak of this heatwave will occur in my opinion next weekend when temps may even reach 36/37C as a direct S,ly flow moves up from the continent. This will go with an almighty bang as a cold front will sweep E around the 28th/29th July as a much cooler W,ly flow spreads across the UK. Speaking of storms it does look as though next week will differ compared to this week as isolated potentially severe storms could develop triggered by the very temps.

Depends really on your location. For example in my location along with much of the SE we could see a drop from the currently very high values if the positioning of the HP allows a direct E,ly flow. The effects of the cooler N Sea can then extend as far W into the E Midlands. However a SE/SSE,ly flow will result in temps being around 4C higher. However for W areas the temps will remain between 24-27C. During this fantastic period of weather I wouldn't go much further than 48hrs out when it comes to predicted max temps due to the reasons above. Back to the models and im eager to see if the models continue to suggest a real blast a heat from the S. This combined with the very dry ground could result in some very impressive max temps. I believe the very dry ground can increase surface temps by a couple of C. Cheers Frosty for your comments mate.

Im afraid not apart from the potential for the odd isolated storm from wednesday onwards but these will be very hit or miss. So far this month im very pleased with our current weather pattern as my instincts have served me well. I still feel as though this heatwave has not peaked just yet and I continue to expect an even hotter S,ly feed to arrive towards the last week of this month. This will eventually go bang and im also expecting a more unsettled, cooler August.

Looks like we might have to wait until Wednesday for some more storm action. The GFS yesterday was spot on for my location.

Im gutted as I just captured 5mins of the storm with some cracking lightning/thunder on my new smart phone. However because I didn't press stop I lost it all. Next time I shall learn how to use the phone first. Still looks like another storm is developing behind this one.

Storm clouds gathering here.

If I had to pick any county tomorrow then in my opinion Northants seem in perfect position for isolated storms tomorrow. I shall make sure my camera is fully charged though.

Delighted with the output today. Much to look forward to with a continuation of the warm/very warm temps especially for the S with the risk of isolated thunderstorms being possible on saturday. As expected next week we see high pressure become dominant once again as shown on the GEFS mean. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-192.png?0 Only negative is in deep FI the GEFS suggests the core of high pressure will be centred to the SW of the UK with a cooler NW,ly flow. However I continue to believe the last week of July will bring more of a S,ly flow increasing the temps. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-288.png?0 The only downside to all of this lovely weather is my location has only seen 20mm of rain since May 30th and my grass is now brown rather than green!

Again using my instinct I shall disagree. The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow. For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

Been a few days since I posted but my word what a splendid set of model runs so far this morning. The coming weather is what I would call perfect. The temps will be widely in the mid 20s and possibly as high as 28/29C and will continue into next week. I say perfect because in my opinion 25C is the perfect temp as its plenty warm enough without feeling uncomfortable. The lack of rainfall in the output is troubling though because its been so dry in recent months in my location. Looking further ahead and the settled theme appears to continue but the exact placement of the HP has been differing in recent days and at the moment we could see anything from a cooler N,ly flow or even a warmer SE,ly. The favourite is probably turning slightly cooler with temps eventually dropping to the low 20s but I wouldn't rule out the hotter SE,ly.

Week 2 hot spell continues to look possible as I mentioned a few days ago. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif Seen these situations many times before and after a period of HP being centered over the UK, the HP moves E allowing a S,ly flow to be introduced. Very goog potential for storms to develop thereafter from the hot S,ly plume. Remember computer models are only a prediction. You always have to use instinct when interpreting the model output. The hot S,ly plume might not be showing just yet in the output but it will in a few days time!

I beg to differ. Although I don't post as often outside of winter in this thread I do look at the models and a combination of the model output plus my instincts is telling me the first week of July will see a warm, settled spell with temps in the mid 20s. The potential for these temps to increase in the 2nd week of July as we pick up an even warmer S,ly flow. I hope im right because so far this year my warmest max temps has been a disappointing 22.4C!!

Looking rather good for my location between 3pm to 9pm with the peak of this potential around 6pm. The main area appears to be around Cambs, Wash and this was mentioned also this morning on the BBC breakfast news. Later on this evening into overnight we could see some action into the SE spreading N in E Anglia but as ever in these situations its case of following the radar. Great to be back by the way as I haven't posted since March. Nothing better than thunderstorm potential to bring me out of retirement!

Just want to echo others in wishing you the best in the future. Certainly a great loss for the rest of us. I do believe your methods is the future of forecasting and im not surprised your services are wanted elsewhere.

Confined to being indoors most of the time due to my disabilities. What isn't helping is a government who are targeting the disabled and most vulnerable people in society! Im even thinking of returning home to live with my parents which at the age of 41 isn't ideal.May of been slightly off topic here!

Have to be honest im sick and tired of this cold weather. I pay my gas/elec bills quarterly and whilst this does incur a hefty charge in the winter months I get a reprieve during spring, summer. During these past few weeks I haven't had my heating on at all because I simply cannot afford to. Just add though that the snowfall last Saturday was incredible for my location. Our official weather station 20miles away recorded 26cm of snowfall which is incredible for the time of year. Having spoke to my parents and nearby elderly neighbours they haven't seen anything like this. I still even have a few patches of snow left!

3.2C here in Peterborough but this is based on a local weather station where max temps are often a few C warmer than the official weather station 20miles away. Just been looking at the summer of 1962 and whilst I don't believe in pattern matching, I certainly won't be investing in a new BBQ or suntan lotion!