TEITS

Nope the E,ly on the output will appear yet again, even tomorrow morning. I have been saying the same for many days now but those predicting a continuation of a mild stormy pattern are likely to be wrong. Watch this space and see how a very cold spell via an E,ly is on its way! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-216.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?18

Yes must admit over the years my biased towards cold has always affected my judgement of the model output although in recent times I have moderated this. One concerning aspect if a bitter E,ly should occur is ice especially if the floods do not drain away in time. Shame I cannot play Ice hockey anymore otherwise I could of played a match on the River Nene here.

No model output is infallible. This is why it is wise to use forecasting instinct alongside computers when looking at the medium/long range. A good example of over reliance of models is what occurred many years ago when I first joined this forum. A band of snow was hitting the N Midlands and a forecaster on this site (won't embarrass them) said the band of snow will move to SE England because the models said so. However the radar said otherwise and suggested SW. The reality was SW England were hit and the SE remained dry. Over dependance on computers is something that occurs all the time not just in weather forecasting!

I would love to see the faces of those waking up to the ECM this morning. HP over the UK linking up with HP extending S from Svalbard. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif Link up complete and note the incredible surge of cold spreading S. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif Beyond +240 if this run was to verify the orientation of the HP would tilt slightly W-E rather than N-S. This would mean the incredible cold would start backing W. This is the kind of synoptic set up that is rare and where -20C upper temps can reach the SE.

I haven't seen the models these past 48hrs but it looks as though the GEM is coming round to my way of thinking. The UKMO heading the same way aswell. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-192.png?12 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-240.png?12

I continue to disagree with those that suggest the further outlook will continue with the same pattern i.e unsettled, stormy. The evidence to me suggests the contrary and I continue to predict that a change from mid month and especially the 3rd week of Feb will occur. This change will take the form of more settled weather with higher pressure and dare I say it even snowfall as a possible E,ly is on the cards for later this month. Prior to this we still have the problem that the UKMO/ECM do not agree with the GFS with regards to the storm at +144.

I think its pretty clear that we're likely to see a colder end to Feb especially from the 3rd week onwards. Over the next few days this will be highlighted in the SLP ensembles because I feel confident iceland will have a higher SLP mean for the period in question compared to Lisbon. I say this because its obvious to me we're going to start to see pressure increasing to our N with LP systems taking a much more S,ly track. Some will wonder what im talking about but when it comes to forecasting using the models you will always see large scatter in F.I. Now the trick has always been knowing which is more likely to be correct. Sadly some people prefer to stick to a closer timeframe and allow the models to do the forecast for them. This is not forecasting in my opinion which is why I have the highest regard for Steve Murr because he does use his forecasting instincts.

Pretty clear to me that from mid Feb onwards (especially 3rd week of Feb) we shall see an end to this stormy pattern with pressure rising. You can see this clearly on the SLP mean for the UK and other places like Iceland. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslReyjavic.png http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png So next week we have the potential for snowfall to occur in some locations followed by more settled weather and probably colder weather the week after. Personally I still fancy a decent cold spell to develop during this period.

Ireland and NW England, Scotland appear to be most at threat from the storm between +120 to +144. Delighted to see a new trend towards a pattern change emerge in todays output. Shall explain more when I have woken up.

Predicted max temps next Mon/Tues. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1324.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1564.gif Nothing mild on those charts. Fair enough the models do not suggest bitterly cold, powder snow, but when you haven't seen a snowflake all winter I will take wet snowfall.

Strongly disagree with Gibby, Purga posts this morning. For starters the ensembles do not suggest mild. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140205/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png Upper temps around -3C, low heights centred across the UK, disturbances within the circulation is a recipe for surprise snowfall even at lower levels. This is especially true if these disturbances occur overnight and under heavy precip. Also it is reasonable to assume that max temps could be just a few degrees above freezing. I personally consider temps of 10C to be mild at this time of year. I do wish some members looked at the models in more detail rather than just assuming low pressure, W,lys equals mild & wet!

Personally I cannot see trough disruption in the GFS output like you John. Trough disruption to me is when the jet stream buckles and the bottom of the trough becomes disconnected and cut off. Back to the models and last time I posted a few days ago I referred to the Iceland SLP mean. As we can see below the mean is clearly rising. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140204/00/prmslReyjavic.png So no obvious cold spell on the horizon but signs one could develop in the model output over the next few days and this could even occur at +192 to +240 rather than +384!

After this mornings 0Z GFS run I would recommend everyone follows the SLP mean. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140201/00/prmslReyjavic.png The GFS may have its faults but it can be very good in picking up blocking over Greenland way out in F.I i.e 2009, 2010.

What really amazes me with this disappointing winter is the sheer lack of decent charts even in extreme F.I. Even during some of the poorest winters you were given some hope. The most annoying feature of this winter is a certain person who predicts endless blizzards throughout the winter months (every winter!) has the cheek to say how accurate he has been. Im sure many like me haven't even seen a single snowflake all winter. Tne problem is this person predicts widespread UK snow and yet if only a single flake falls on top of the scottish mountains he claims success. Have to say the Met O have been excellent this winter, whereas my own instincts have been very poor. Bottom line is whatever the models are suggesting you need back up from the Met O.

A dire set of models for what is a dire winter. Even for my location its unusual not to have even seen a single snowflake by now. Seems all the potential has vanished i.e E,lys, slider, cold W,lys. The GEFS ensembles say it all for my location as not one member drops below -5C from the start of Feb. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140127/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png CRAP!

Let me put it this way a slider followed by a true E,ly as the block advances is W is just as likely as a mild W,ly. However at the moment im just concentrating more on +120/+144. The differences between the 0Z/06Z GFS just highlights the uncertainty as did the 0Z GEFS ensembles.

For the sake of the Mods and members I hope arguing doesn't ruin this thread. Lets be honest here whether you prefer cold or mild weather nobody can really say which model is more likely to be correct due to the uncertainty. If we compare this mornings UKMO to last nights 12Z then that says it all. Any newcomers to this forum must be rather confused but sadly this model uncertainty always happens when we have blocking to our E. This is less so when blocking is over Greenland. In my opinion its a flaw in the programming of these models. I shall finally add that im obviously biased towards cold but when I post my interpretations of the output I try to be unbiased.

Ha Ha so the UKMO changes its mind from last nights awful 12Z and goes back to having the block further W than the ECM/GFS. Before anyone says the ECM/GFS is more likely to be correct then lets cast our minds back a bit. At +72 all models agree with the LP sinking S. However it was the UKMO that modelled this consistently, whilst I recall the ECM & GFS especially flapped around with this. I should add the JMA was also consistent with this. Trying to base a forecast on the output is a nightmare to be honest. Now like I said yesterday I wasn't convinced of a classic type E,ly i.e cold uppers, snow showers because the block would not be far enough W. However I certainly don't buy the W-E movement of LPs and SW,ly winds like the ECM is showing. I still feel the likely outlook is the block will prove more resistant and LPs will be sliders which will increase the risk of snowfall and keep the UK on the cold side. The GEM is my favourite this morning as we see a slider followed by the block advancing W! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012600/gem-0-240.png?00 .

ECM is wanting to bring some cold uppers through the Wash. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECM0-120.GIF?25-0

So the 06Z has low pressure of 960mb to the N of Scotland, whereas the 0Z has SLP at 1005 mb. No wonder the GFS recieves a slating on this forum especially the 06Z run. I am slightly nervous how its the JMA/GEM that support the UKMO. I know the Met O hold the JMA in high regard but in my experience I have found the model to be poor. Like I said earlier we should adopt the attitude that maybe all the models are wrong and something inbetween is more likely.

Damn just deleted my post by accident and cannot be bothered to type it again. Gist of what I was saying is in my opinion we shall see a blend of the current output being correct. What I mean by this is the ECM/GFS moving the block further W but just maybe the UKMO has it too far W. Not convinced we shall see the type of E,ly the UKMO is projecting i.e classic snow shower due to very cold uppers. I believe a cold outlook with snowfall is possible but this is due to slider LPs rather than convective snowfall like the UKMO is suggesting. The latest +72 fax chart is an exact copy of the UKMO model but then again they always are 99.9% of the time.

I can't resist by saying I was confident back on 15th Jan. Fantastic UKMO which continues to be very consistent.

Morning. The simple answer is us members can afford to be less cautious than the Met O. Take todays output for example. Now for days I have been saying the Met O forecast appears out of kilter with the output and this is especially true today. What is happening in the output is the models have backed away from what appeared at first to be a brief E,ly followed by milder W,lys. The output has been trending towards a more prolonged E,ly due to the block being stronger followed by sliding LPs. Take for example the ECM at +168. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif What we have here is a low pressure moving SSE rather than W-E. This is a snow event as the fronts will be encountering cold air already over the UK but due to the track it will also pull in colder air on its N flank. Another trend im beginning to see is at +240 the models are wanting to increase heights towards Greenland. So in summary the main theme of todays output is a stronger block to our NE, Sliding LP systems.

Gibby summary of the 0Z GFS for example was wrong. He states "average temps" and yet for much of the run the temps were actually below normal and on occasion max temps were only a few degrees above freezing. This was due to upper temps around -5C combined with heavy precip which would also drop the max temp. Like I keep saying you have to look in detail at the model output because what may appear a mild chart isn't always the case. Finally even yourself stated the models appear to be colder than yesterday which contradicts Gibbys post!

Really think some are making the mistake of looking at the Isobars and not factoring in the airmass. Take this chart for example. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png Damn good snow event here. DO NOT make the mistake of assuming mild just because LP systems are crossing the UK!! Max temp 1C from a W,ly!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png