TEITS

Very good point. I posted yesterday that potentially over the next 10 days we could have a situation where the extreme W/SW are experiencing temps of 13C whereas locations such as say London are only reaching 1-3C as a max and even lower if fog is stubborn to clear.

Morning Nick. Based on recent years I would say even earlier than +72! The update from Ian F does not surprise me but I still feel a true bitter, snowy E,ly is a long shot. I do feel some form of flow off the continent is likely i.e SSE/SE,ly in the 10-15 day range and it could be potentially very cold if the skies remain largely clear. The main reason I say this is because historically E,lys via Scandi HP are more frequent during late winter/early spring than early winter. I will add though that as you know the models are useless when it comes to modelling E,lys via Scandi HPs. The main reason being is they cannot seem to accurately model what happens when Atlantic LPs encounter the blocking to our E. Sometimes, especially the GFS will always want to model the Low pressure systems NE rather than SE under the block. So a couple of notes for the next 2 weeks. 1. Don't expect much wind or rain. 2. Don't expect mild temps unless you live in the extreme SW/W that are away from the influence of a continental flow. 3. Follow the UKMO if an E,ly is be suggested by the ECM/GFS. I say this because the GFS is useless in these situations whereas the ECM is the other extreme and often projects a repeat of 1947!

Morning Tim. As I said yesterday some kind of flow off the continent is most likely in the outlook and its most likely to remain dry and settled except maybe far N of Scotland. However at this stage the flow could be anything from a S,ly to a bitter E,ly. If we are to see a prolonged cold spell in Dec then an E,ly via HP to our NE is our only chance because blocking towards the Greenland region is very unlikely.

Worth pointing out everyone that due to the time of year we will not require a Scandi HP to be perfectly placed and bring colder uppers to actually experience very cold temps. Any continental flow is likely to bring max temps around freezing and mins well below freezing. The only exceptions are those locations away from the continental influence. So for example it is possible that whilst Cornwall and Dublin are experiencing max temps of 11C, the Midlands/SE could see max temps of 0C! Thanks for the comments everyone as I decided I would feel better by indulging in my favourite hobby.

If you don't mind me saying Gibby I would change the summary to saying North and West for the snowfall. The reason I say is the models suggest a W,ly element to the N,ly so places such as NW Wales are more prone to snowfall. The only exception is possibly parts of N/E Norfolk as geographically this location is exposed to a NW,ly also. The further outlook remains unchanged in my opinion with HP in charge providing settled, dry conditions with frost, fog a risk at night. A very slim chance of an E,ly developing later. Shall post more on this later on.

Just a quickie. I have been following the models lately and to be honest the output does not excite me from a cold perspective. Appears to me snowfall will not be widespread because by the time the cold N,ly flow is established it moves away E. Obviously favoured places in Scotland are the exception. Beyond and I see HP becoming centred just to the S of the UK. So whilst the S should remain dry, settled, cold at night, the far NW could become milder and more unsettled although this depends on how far S the HP is. What I do not see is any prolonged cold spell from the N or E at the moment. Just add that my view of the UKMO +144 is its a poor chart. Very little chance of the cold being prolonged from +168 onwards.

We had some very impressive lightning and thunder last night around 3am which woke me up. I didn't manage to capture any this time as I was too tired to get up.

So after a couple of days of temps around 30C at the end of the week. They drop to 25C at the weekend before increasing to 28C on Monday, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png So far this summer is turning into a winter equivalent of a bitter NE,ly. What I mean by this is exciting weather.

Put together a slow motion video of the lightning strikes that occurred during the epic storm of 23rd July.

Yes you're right as this has been the general theme with the models for much of this month. Im delighted with the output not just because of the potential but also from a forecasting perspective. I said around a week ago I expected the same pattern to continue and that currently looks the case. So the outlook for me continues to be warm with spells of very warm or even hot temperatures. This accompanied by thundery outbreaks at times. Amazingly the GEFS control run is just as warm as the GFS Op!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Temps widely predicted to be between 28-30C on Thursday. If you then take into account some locations will always reach a few degrees higher then 32/33C isn't out of the question. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130729/06/84/ukmaxtemp.png This time though locations such as Heathrow, Northolt are unlikely to be the hotspots as this could be further N i.e Northants, Cambs. The outlooks continues to look promising also.

The lack of posts is probably more due to the fact that short term prospects are very exciting i.e heat, more storm potential that many aren't bothered by the long term prospects. Besides I have been reading some archive threads and many of your posts are on the glum side and yet look at what a fantastic spell of weather we have already had. We all know the long term prospects are subject to change. As an example next weeks brief heatwave wasn't suggested by the models 7-10 days ago, far from it they were suggesting cool, unsettled W/NW,lys. I have already commented that the models for much of this month have been far too progressive in introducing cool W,lys with low pressure passing E across the UK. The reality is we have remained warm, hot at times with thundery outbreaks. Lastly I commented a few days ago about how ensembles generally follow operationals if they are consistent and below is a good example. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130728/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png Few ensembles suggested a hot plume and now look we have a mean of 15C! 18C mean on the 06Z ensembles. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Yep following the models in these situations is a complete waste of time and following the radar is whats required. Having said this I don't have high hopes for much thundery activity in my neck of the woods. Based on the models, radar, sat, experience of these situations im expecting the heaviest rain to hit more central parts i.e central midlands before moving N into N England. Most of the thundery activity will be restricted to the far S especially along the S coasts.

I feel the comments this evening have been perfectly appropiate. Considering this is the model discussion thread then the comments with regards to the ECM are correct because it is an extreme run. The temps being modelled this evening including the 18Z GFS suggests max temps could be in the mid 30sC.

So which do you believe the NAE or GFS. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/07/26/basis18/ukuk/pslv/13072718_2618.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs241.gif Neither is the answer because as I often say in winter it will be a case of just following the Sat/Radar. My current view is something inbetween these i.e central Midlands into N England rather than the W Midlands or Wales, NW England.

Whilst that is true, the ECM mean over the past 48hrs have often been much colder and yet the operational runs continue to predict a very hot S,ly plume. I think this is the 4th run in a row to do so. Now in my experience when this happens the operationals are what you take note of. This is even more apt considering the output from some of the other models.

Well what a turnaround in the output these past 24hrs. if we cast our mind back a few days the chance of temps being in the high 20s for the end of next week looked very unlikely as the models hinted at a much cooler W/NW,ly flow. Yet here we are looking at another potentially very hot, thundery set up and indeed my temps today look to reach around 26C. The reason why this breakdown to much cooler weather hasn't occurred is because like much of this month the models have been too progressive in moving low pressure E. Even the much touted anomaly charts haven't been useful. If we cast our minds back a few weeks when I predicted our extended heatwave someone on here commented how the anomaly charts didn't show any sign of change in our weather and look what happened! I shall try and find the post later when I have more time. As I have said many times over the past few years you cannot just use the models to produce accurate forecasts. You have to use some forecasting instinct alongside the output because these models are not infalliable. So the outlook for me over the next few weeks is more of the same. The further S the more likely to remain warm and at times very warm with sunshine alternating with outbreaks of stormy weather. Classic example below of what we can expect more of in the near future. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png Breaks down. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png This is where the models go wrong. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

Somre more lightning shots from Monday nights storm.

Some video clips from last nights storm.

I've recorded some great video footage which I shall put together tomorrow. Here is a sneak peek with a screen grab!

Something is brewing and it isn't my tea. Just been outside for a cig and noticed distant flashes of lightning. The storms to my SW are intensifying.

Amazing how the temps have shot up here. At 9am it was grey and cool at 17C and now its 24C. Looking very good for homegrown storms to develop across the Midlands/Wales this afternoon which will track NE into N England this evening. Having said this its impossible to predict what we will import from France later in S areas. As I tend to live in a rather tornado prone area im not actually ruling out seeing a funnel over the next 24hrs.

Cannot tell you how excited I am at the next few days potential. Reminds me of back in the early 1990s when storms developed following a heatwave, and at the time I was on holiday in Wells, Norfolk. The lightning from those storms started at 10pm and continued to 6am. I had a seaview from my bedroom and it was a sight I will never forget. I mentioning this because this could be similar. The distribution of storms is impossible to predict but what does look certain is the potential for storms to break out occurs over a relatively long period. I doubt I will get much sleep tomorrow night due to the potential coming up from the S plus the incredibly high humidity, warm temps. Peak of activity appears to be tomorrow afternoon into Tues evening when finally the storms should clear late evening. Chance Thursday could see more storms after a drier day on Wednesday although im not expecting the storms on Thursday to be as widespread or severe as Mon/Tues.

Based on the latest output you have to fancy 34C being reached around the London area on Monday. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/07/20/basis18/ukuk/tmax/13072218_2018.gif With dewpoints expected to be around 18/19C on Monday its going to be a very uncomfortable day!