TEITS

So yet another run that hints at a pattern change towards the end of the year with the interest starting from around the 28th Dec onwards. As some of you know I like to look at the Iceland SLP ensembles when blocking to our N is hinted at. However keep an eye on the Madrid SLP mean also. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141214/00/prmslMadrid.png Should blocking develop then you would expect low pressure systems to take a more S,ly route and the SLP mean will drop. A few 0Z GEFS members hint at this. Finally as many know my forecasting is based on instinct. Until today I haven't seen anything of interest but my word my mind has now changed towards a mega cold spell arriving at the end of the year.

At last I have something positive to say about the output. Whilst the exciting synoptics shown on the GFS might be too far W this isn't something to worry about at this stage. The GFS isn't an outlier and you can see from the Iceland ensembles that pressure is set to rise in the latter stages of the run.The GEFS control skews the mean though. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141214/00/prmslReyjavic.png When it comes to blocking being shown across Greenland by the GFS I take note due to the exceptional pertormance of this model during the 2009, 2010 cold spells.

If you read my post correctly I was merely replying to the comment that "mild weather is pushed into F.I" and illustrated this isn't the case by posting the Wednesday chart. I also stated about the return to cold next weekend. 12Z ECM clearly shows my post was accurate. +96 Mild next Wednesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif +168 Colder spell at weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif +216 return to mild. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif +240 Could cold return in time for Xmas? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif No selective charts from me. Just an honest unbiased summary of the output.

As many know I am a cold ramper but lets be honest some of the comments with regards to the output are way off!! Comments such as "mild weather pushed back into F.I" are wrong. For example the GFS is predicting max temps of 12C next Wednesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif A more realistic assesment of the output is this. Turning milder next week especially midweek before turning colder again next weekend. Thereafter becoming mild again around Xmas before possibly turning colder again after Xmas especially in the N. At this stage no notable cold spell is likely and any snowfall more likely for the higher ground during the colder snaps with the driest weather in the S.

In my opinion Mushy the model output shifted many days ago to a milder outlook as I have suggested in previous postings. Whilst we might see a very brief dip in temperatures around the 19th, thereafter milder weather is the trend and locations such as SW England could become very mild i.e temps 13/14C. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141213/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Looking at the overall output and there is very little to suggest a change. Sadly there is nothing to suggest a change towards a significant nationwide cold spell even in distant F.I. The ensembles do give the slightest hint pressure may rise across the UK via the Azores high but equally it could remain to the S. You can see this scatter below with the GFS Op having a much higher SLP than the mean. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141212/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png

Looks like the cold NW,ly around the 18th Dec has disappeared from the output this morning. This is reflected on the ensembles with a rise of 3C compared to yesterdays 0Z. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141211/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png The only exception is Scotland could remain on the cold side especially the N.

Im not sure I agree with some of the comments made this morning. Firstly the outlook does not look like bringing any signifiant cold spell via blocking and this can clearly be seen on the SLP ensembles. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/06/prmslOslo.png https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/06/prmslReyjavic.png The best we can get from this period is what we are seeing i.e brief colder NW,lys followed by brief milder spells. infact it is quiet notable the lack of cold across most of Europe in the forecast period. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/06/t850Berlin.png https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/06/t850Oslo.png Even poor Moscow struggles to get below -5C! https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/06/t850Moscow.png This is all because so far this month the NAO has been positive as predicted by the seasonal models. At this stage nothing in the model output suggests this is likely to change in the near future. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Very disappointing output. It looks as though another brief NW,ly cold outbreak may occur around the 18th Dec but thereafter a mild/very mild SW,ly will spread across the UK. This can be seen on the ensembles but also this would follow on from the ECM +240 chart. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141210/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

I must pull you up on this comment. One of the main reasons I take note of the Met O is because they aren't biased. I normally don't take much notice of internet LRF because I find they are biased towards cold i.e Madden. The Met O forecasters are professonals and therefore will produce forecasts based on evidence without any bias affecting their judgement. This is one of the reasons why I rarely forecast anymore because I just cannot stop myself being biased towards cold. Moving onto to Steve M forecast and what an excellent read that was. The above does not apply to Steve M though because in my experience of reading his LRF he does not allow his cold biased to affect his seasonal forecasts. I shall just add that recently I discovered on FaceBook that my cousin in Italy is a weather forecaster. Now the language barrier is a problem and google translate is rubbish but from what I can gather he expects December to be average. He believes winter will arrive with a vengence across Europe in early Jan.

Although I wasn't born, the 1962/63 winter did not consist of constant blizzards though. I am sure during that winter there were long spells of just dry, sunny, very cold weather. Now I personally would prefer that over a prolonged spell of wet, mild, windy weather.

Lets hope this 945mb Low pressure over Scotland does not occur from the GEFS control run! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-180.png?0 Overall though im disappointed with the output. A cool/cold NW,ly is looking likely around the 10th Dec but at this stage it looks as though only higher ground will experience snowfall.

Very little to get me excited hence the lack of posts, the GFS parallel E,ly yesterday was fun to view though! A few points from me and I shall add more detail to these when I have more time. 1. I really cannot see any form of E,ly developing in the model output that is going to bring any wintry weather even into the medium range. 2. Far more likely outlook into the medium range i.e +240 is high pressure across the UK bringing settled conditions. 3. If a cold, snowy spell is going to develop it is more likely from the 8th Dec onwards and is more likely to come from the N via blocking developing to our NW. My logic being is I can see the PV transferring over to Scandinavia during this period. Love to be wrong about the earlier timeframe and we see a 1987 type E,ly develop within +240!

I agree a shift this morning towards the HP to our NE this morning rather than the Atlantic winning the battle. However the low heights to our NW over Greenland/Iceland are a concern if you're seeking a cold, wintry spell. This is because this could prevent the blocking HP to extend further. Also if the blocking could back W then we would then see much colder air before advected S on the right flank of the HP which may then advect W across Europe. The UK can experience a bitterly cold E,ly when the PV is towards Greenland but we always need this to be just W of Greenland. Otherwise the E,ly train stops further E and does not arrive in the UK.

I hate to say it but I see very little to suggest a cold spell is anywhere near close to arriving in the UK. The stalemate between the High pressure and the Atlantic looks as though will be won by the Atlantic towards the end of the month into the beginning of Dec. We might see LP taking a SE track but we need to see the low heights to our NW back W before any blocking to our NE can become influencial. Iceland SLP mean sums this up. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141119/12/prmslReyjavic.png So the outlook towards end of November into first week of Dec could potentially be stormy for S areas in particular and any snowfall is only likely on the higher ground of Scotland. Looking at the overall pattern im more concerned with potential severe gales in the SW of England rather than any cold spell! In the potential pattern coming up you often find LP systems deepen very quickly and significantly at the base of the trough.

I feel the safest prediction based on the model output is a stalemate between the blocking to our E and the Atlantic with neither really dominating our weather. So weather wise this would result in SE,lys with E/SE likely to remain dry but extreme W areas might be threatened by rain at times. Looking at the GEFS SLP mean for my location suggests pressure will remain relatively high above 1010mb. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141117/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png However this stalemate could easily swing in either direction in the models from a colder E,ly to a full blown attack from the Atlantic.

I cannot believe the change in the model output as I haven't viewed the models as regularly as I normally do. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif Just goes to show how quickly these models can change. If this output continues then the Met O will have to change their forecast which has constantly referred to mild, unsettled SW,lys.

Although I haven't been very active on this forum lately I have been following all threads discussing this oncoming winter. I have to say at the moment im not convinced by some of the wintry predictions by some. I shall explain why below. 1. Seasonal models do not suggest a very cold winter. What always puzzles me is I find the accuracy of the ECMWF/Met O seasonal models to be fairly good and yet these models cannot really factor in what may occur in the Stratosphere during the winter months. So with this in mind maybe too much emphasis is placed on the Stratosphere without looking at all the other variables. I have lost count how many times I have read promising signs in the Stratosphere thread which have not been followed by a cold spell. Don't get me wrong im not putting down those who contribute to this thread but for me I do not rush out to buy a sledge or stock up my fridge/freezer based on this. 2. Met Office have not indicated a cold winter and I have alot of respect for the Met O and they are highly regarded by other forecasting agencies across the world. Who can forget the way they predicted the cold spells of 09/10 way in advance of anyone else even when it wasn't apparent in the models. What members should take on board is it doesn't matter what the GFS in F.I might be suggesting or the Stratosphere thread if this isn't backed by the Met O 30 day forecast. 3. Im always sceptical of forecasts on forums simply due to being biased. I should know because im the biggest cold ramper on here and always allow my bias to affect my judgement. My point is I believe some are so focussed on the possible signs towards a cold winter they do not look for the signs that may indicate a mild winter. So in summary I shall await and see what happens as at the moment some of the forecasts are chalk and cheese especially the prediction of the AO/NAO. My own personal thoughts as my forecasting has always been instinctive, is a fairly average UK winter which will consist of more snowfall than last year (isn't difficult!) but nothing like 2010.

Excellent analysis BA which I totally agree with. I have been keeping a close eye on the Reyjavic ensembles and the number of runs that are trending towards higher pressure are increasing especially towards the latter stages of the run. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141109/00/prmslReyjavic.png I still believe our best chance of seeing cold possibly wintry weather is towards the end of the month or even the first week of Dec. This is because in my opinion the flow is much more likely to come from the N/NE/E than a mild W/SW,ly. Upon reading the Met O forecast this morning I strongly disagree with it.

Although I haven't posted on this thread for a long time I have been following the model output and I feel the quest for cold/snow is allowing some to miss the bigger picture. I also read a comment saying this is typical November output!! Let me assure you todays ECM especially at +240 is far from the norm for November and is far more likely in late winter/early spring. If the ECM went out further than +240 you can be sure a very cold NE,ly would set in. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.gif If you look back at previous significant cold spells you can see the building blocks being put in place some distance away from when the cold actually arrived. I feel the same is happening now with the output and it may take until the last week of November to arrive. Very exciting times ahead!

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

I agree with John. In my opinion any forecast that goes into precise detail is a waste of time and is not based on any scientific evidence. This is because scientifically it is impossible and you cannot do this for 20 days out let alone months. A typical example of the type of forecast im referring to is below. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook Utter tripe referring to a HP to the E of the UK in early December and SE,ly winds.

As much fun as it is discussing this oncoming winter, I feel it would be better to wait and see. The difference in some forecasts I have read are frankly laughable. For example I was reading a forecast for the NE of the USA today which suggested above average temps, below average snowfall. Another forecast predicted the opposite and also mentioned significant blocking over Greenland for the duration of the winter and a corresponding negative NAO/AO. Due to the predictions of the NAO/AO being so wildly different I shall refrain from getting excited or despondent. I shall stick with the trusty method of just following the likes of the ECM/GFS nearer the time. Look at it this way. If the americans are struggling to predict this coming winter then its impossible for a tiny island like the UK. As you know a negative NAO/AO does not guarantee cold for the UK because it depends on the positioning of the blocking and the jet stream.

Im waiting for tonight because it appears it will go bang across the SE before moving N into E Anglia. This could continue all through the night.

Im particularly looking forward to this winter. Reason being is due to personal reasons last winter, I didn't care if we had 10ft blizzards or mild/rain. Im also looking forward to being much more active in the model discussion thread. It shouldn't be too hard to improve on last winter because I can't remember many winters when i didn't see a single snowflake.